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Central PA Spring 2023


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2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey guys! I know it's been a hot minute since I've been in the forum (Winter did not help the potential this past year....). All that said, I wanted to pass along some great news;

I have accepted an offer to be a new QPF/Winter Forecaster for the Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD bringing me back to the Mid-Atlantic! I will try not to be a stranger and even try to visit PA more in the future. Plus, I can pass along information that's available to the public for y'all to see and offer my thoughts when storms arise. 

Hope everyone is doing well and look forward to coming back home :)

This is great news! Plus you leave West Texas! Haha 

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I don't know what to say-

Once we get back in the groove here, I will write a full trip report as I have time. Hard to believe after 5 years of dreaming, planning, and saving that it's all over now. What a time it was! 

Our son mowed 4 times over the past 23 days. Current Maytown mow ticker stands at 14. It looks like mowing is down to once a week. Grass is definitely showing signs of stress. Hardly anything fell here the entire time we were gone. Remarkable. And it looks pretty dry for the week ahead. Sigh.

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't know what to say-

Once we get back in the groove here, I will write a full trip report as I have time. Hard to believe after 5 years of dreaming, planning, and saving that it's all over now. What a time it was! 

Our son mowed 4 times over the past 23 days. Current Maytown mow ticker stands at 14. It looks like mowing is down to once a week. Grass is definitely showing signs of stress. Hardly anything fell here the entire time we were gone. Remarkable. And it looks pretty dry for the week ahead. Sigh.

Next up, Sanibel!   On mow 7 here and it is 100% done until it rains again. 

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21 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey guys! I know it's been a hot minute since I've been in the forum (Winter did not help the potential this past year....). All that said, I wanted to pass along some great news;

I have accepted an offer to be a new QPF/Winter Forecaster for the Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD bringing me back to the Mid-Atlantic! I will try not to be a stranger and even try to visit PA more in the future. Plus, I can pass along information that's available to the public for y'all to see and offer my thoughts when storms arise. 

Hope everyone is doing well and look forward to coming back home :)

Awesome news, congrats!

We will look forward to your detailed posts on Winter Storm potentials this upcoming season!

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't know what to say-

Once we get back in the groove here, I will write a full trip report as I have time. Hard to believe after 5 years of dreaming, planning, and saving that it's all over now. What a time it was! 

Our son mowed 4 times over the past 23 days. Current Maytown mow ticker stands at 14. It looks like mowing is down to once a week. Grass is definitely showing signs of stress. Hardly anything fell here the entire time we were gone. Remarkable. And it looks pretty dry for the week ahead. Sigh.

Welcome back home! 

I really enjoyed the photos that you shared of the snow capped mountains.
I will look forward to your trip recap post!

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85 at 2:45. Summer heat appears to be on. 
 

Will end May with .06” rain. Has to be the driest month I’ve ever had here. It’d go 6 or so weeks in Texas without rain but here? That’s insanity. 

No chance of rain for the next 10 days, at a minimum, it appears either. Probably going to see water restrictions around the state pop up soon. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

85 at 2:45. Summer heat appears to be on. 
 

Will end May with .06” rain. Has to be the driest month I’ve ever had here. It’d go 6 or so weeks in Texas without rain but here? That’s insanity. 

No chance of rain for the next 10 days, at a minimum, it appears either. Probably going to see water restrictions around the state pop up soon. 

It is raining right now at my parents house just south of Harrisburg. 

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That radar presentation is pretty crazy - the skies here are at least 75% cloudless. Looking around here it would be hard to imagine there was rain within at least 50-75 miles. 

It rained at MDT yesterday (per their records) in a similar situation.   Summer showers.  That shower near Mt Alto was also legit as I could see it from my place (that look where you see white coming from the clouds).   I am not sure if the MDT ob is legit though.  They reported a T today as well...between 7 and 8AM. 

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That radar presentation is pretty crazy - the skies here are at least 75% cloudless. Looking around here it would be hard to imagine there was rain within at least 50-75 miles. 

Here is the NWS radar for a similar time.    Lots of summer pop up showers throughout PA though I suspect some are not reaching the ground. 

image.png.7d0f7caa7a614f4350752e0834c46a7d.png

 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

We’ll be >3” under for May alone. And it’s been dry since last October or whatever. No idea how we aren’t in their scope. 

They use 4 different factors to come up with the rating.  I agree we should all be in D0 or D1 using their factors but the ground water is not too bad right now which is pushing us higher than we would think. 

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The last 4 months of 2022 ended slightly below normal precip wise at MDT but decent and not anything that would cause angst or alarm.    Before that Jul and Aug were punishingly BN and 2023 has picked up where last summer left off sitting ~ 5.5" BN since Jan 1 with 4 of the 5 months coming in negative.  If you go back to July 1, 2022, MDT has received a rounded off 10" below normal and this was with the very generous figures from April where many did not do so well...10" BN in less than a years' time.

 

 

 

 

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Heree is why USGS has not pulled many triggers.   Groundwater in the green,  90 day precip yellow and surface water in the green (black line is current location on the graph).  The April deluge in mdt causing a bubble of results that appear ok for some longer term stats but several inches in quick order does little for the yards and vegetation which do not care about 90 day stats.

 

 

 

 

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