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Central PA Spring 2023


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GFS has the 2PM temp at 61 for MDT tomorrow.  Rgem 81.   Cloud and rained related.   Everything I looked at still had Mothers day as a Dandy Chamber day with highs 68-74 for the LSV.   AFD talks about the weekend uncertainty and a cooler regime next week.   Forst chances still alive next week. 

Model guidance continues to show a considerable spread/differences
in the location and amount rain/QPF so there remains
uncertainty in the forecast, esp the northward extent of the
showers, highlighted by the HRW FV3 that indicates the main axis
of rain during the late morning into the mid afternoon bisecting
the state from NW to SE. NAM Nest, HRRR and HRW ARW all focus
the showers across the SW quarter to third of PA Sat morning
and midday.

QPF amounts range from less than 0.10 of an inch across the
Northern Mtns to a little over 0.10 just south of Interstate 80,
to over one third of an inch in Southern Somerset county where a
few TSRA are possible early Sat.

Model consensus points to brightening skies from northwest to
southeast during the late afternoon as a drier northerly flow
develops with strong high pressure building into Ontario.
Breaking clouds allow temperatures to reach the 70-75F range in
most places. Cooler and drier airmass in place Saturday night
will drop lows by about 10 degrees from Friday night back to
more seasonal levels in the 45-55F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long range forecast will be dominated by upper-level
troughiness over the northeastern United States. This should
result in near to below normal temperatures next week, along
with a periodic chance of showers whenever a shortwave rotates
around the base of the trough.

One such wave could bring a few showers to primarily southern
PA Sunday night into early Monday. Then a cold front is progged
to pass southward across the area Tuesday or Tuesday night,
accompanied by another chc of showers. Finally, a more
substantial frontal system could approach late next week, with
an increasing chc of showers later Thursday or Friday.

&&

 

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Today has a chance to reach the 80 degree mark across much of the County with the exception of some of the higher ridges in western sections. Shower chances increase especially over southern chesco by tomorrow morning. Sun returns on Mother's Day and we should see dry and normal to below normal temps for most of next week with the exception of Tuesday which looks to be several degrees above normal.
Records for today: High 91 (1911) / Low 31 (1907) / Rain 1.38" (1974)
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