Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Some warnings say westward movement, some south, some northSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 About a house every 1/4 to 1/2 mile in thr “populated” parts there at least. Until Shawnee that is …Shawnee is now in cross hairsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Just now, Jns2183 said: Shawnee is now in cross hairs Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yea that a problem. Hopefully it dies off before Tulsa further NE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Friday will prob hit 90 again. Have we ever had an April with 3 90 degree days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 7 hours ago, canderson said: Friday will prob hit 90 again. Have we ever had an April with 3 90 degree days? The high at MDT so far this month is 86. Sat is the last day it gets above 60 on any GFS or CMC panel the rest of the month. Those are 1PM temps so if exactly right it may sneak above 60 some days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 The high at MDT so far this month is 86. Sat is the last day it gets above 60 on any GFS or CMC panel the rest of the month. Those are 1PM temps so if exactly right it may sneak above 60 some days later. On my extended forecast for Sunday through Saturday all my highs are between 61-69 with only 2 in 61-63 range, the rest above. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 21 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: On my extended forecast for Sunday through Saturday all my highs are between 61-69 with only 2 in 61-63 range, the rest above. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk They may lower them if the two models I quoted are right. 3 of those days the 1PM temps are in the 40's on the GFS and CMC. It does not get anywhere near 70 the rest of the month (after Sat) on those two runs this AM but of course, 6 hours from now it could change. Suffice to say though it appears likely the big heat is done for a decent stretch after this next front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 They may lower them if the two models I quoted are right. 3 of those days the 1PM temps are in the 40's on the GFS and CMC. It does not get anywhere near 70 the rest of the month (after Sat) on those two runs this AM but of course, 6 hours from now it could change. Suffice to say though it appears likely the big heat is done for a decent stretch after this next front. As long as we can get plenty of rain I'm good. Being bone dry and 50 day after day seems hard this time of yearSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: As long as we can get plenty of rain I'm good. Being bone dry and 50 day after day seems hard this time of year Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yea, models look wet, but they have for months with big let downs. 1/2-1 1/2" still shown for Sat afternoon and evening. The models are not saying 50 day after day just a a few days near 50. Others closer to 60. All of this after Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 9 hours ago, Jns2183 said: It just keeps cycling and handing off south east after the previous cirreculation makes sharp turn north before occluding. The structures match the hodographs from special balloon lunch perfectly. At one point meso had 3 distrinct circulations at once, similar to el Reno. This one storm is going to appear in a lot of future papers. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That is one of the best looking tornadic radar signatures I have ever seen. Goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 DT's look on the weather is bleak for the next 3 weeks starting next week. Cool and wet and the threat of several nights of frost and freezing temps. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFK0NOXIDVI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: That is one of the best looking tornadic radar signatures I have ever seen. Goodness. What was size of this tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Just now, Superstorm said: What was size of this tornado? I'm not sure, have yet to venture beyond this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: DT's look on the weather is bleak for the next 3 weeks starting next week. Cool and wet and the threat of several nights of frost and freezing temps. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFK0NOXIDVI Right now, we stand at the 3rd warmest April ever and will probably jump to number one by Sunday Am but model forecasting would suggest we could make a run to drop out of the top 20 over the following 7 days as number twenty is on 3-4 degrees from number one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 What was size of this tornado?The one was 1/2 mile back in Cole, but it kept handing off. With the one merger there were 3 separate circulations, likely all on the ground pinwalling around each other. The storm probably has 5-10 separate tornados during its life. I spent way to many hours last night watching this in amazement. I remember the one met saying that this one supercell is going to break records for thesis and disertations due to its textbook at times, but uniquely complicated life cycle. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 The thing was also so close to a couple radar stations that the amount of low level radar data available is a jackpot for scientists. Truthfully I'm amazed no storm chasers met their end with how many love to get north of these type of tornados it's deviant motions it had all evening. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 A large portion of the LSV is now in moderate drought. Hopefully Saturday will relieve this a bit. Northeast Drought Summary Small areas of moderate to heavy precipitation brought localized improvement to a few areas, particularly parts of the DelMarVa Peninsula. But most locations received light precipitation at best. As a result, areas of D0 and D1 generally expanded. Moderate drought pushed into northern Virginia and adjacent sections of Maryland and West Virginia, and also expanded into northern New Jersey and parts of adjacent New York and southern New England. The National Fire Center reported over 10,000 acres consumed in the East Protection Region (roughly the northeastern quarter of the contiguous states) from April 7 to 13, with additional wildfire activity reported in the lower Northeast during the ensuing 5 days. Most areas from the Middle Atlantic Region through New England reported precipitation shortfalls of 1.5 to 3.0 inches during the past 60 days, with some locales reporting less than half of normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Increasing wildire risk in Central Florida with the introduction of extreme drought designation on the west side. In contrast, continued dryness and warm weather prompted deterioration in parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula. Moderate to severe (D1 to D2) drought expanded northward in the northern Peninsula, and extreme drought (D3) was introduced in the western Peninsula from Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties northward through Citrus County, where 90-day rainfall was 5.5 to 8.5 inches below normal. The Keetch-Byrum Drought Index – primarily a fire-risk indicator – was unseasonably high in this area, and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, which describes the net surface moisture budget relative to climatology) was below the 2 percentile threshold in most areas, including all of Hernando and Citrus Counties. The National Fire Center reported nearly 60,000 acres consumed by wildfires across the South Protection Region (roughly the southeastern quarter of the contiguous states) during April 7 to 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 10 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That was absolutely insane. Wow, what a watch. Reed is uuuuhhhhh........something else haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 That was absolutely insane. Wow, what a watch. Reed is uuuuhhhhh........something else haha. He managed to get his sensors right in the tornado. You know it's bad when he just throws it out there they aren't in a great spot and starts telling everyone to put in seatbelts. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Low spots like Marsh Creek touched the 30's this morning, while higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than the upper 40's. Today will be near 10 degrees above normal in the mid-70's with tomorrow reaching the 80's. Showers should arrive late Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps looking likely next week to close out April and to open up the month of May. Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 23 (1926) / Rain 1.67" (1940) and Snow 2.2" (1983) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 10 hours ago, canderson said: Friday will prob hit 90 again. Have we ever had an April with 3 90 degree days? My brotha, MDT has not been above 86 and neither has MU, which is a relatively warm spot for the LSV. It's likely most of us have zero 90 degree days in April. Now, if you're talking the Canderson hotbox, well, that may be a different story ha. 55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Right now, we stand at the 3rd warmest April ever and will probably jump to number one by Sunday Am but model forecasting would suggest we could make a run to drop out of the top 20 over the following 7 days as number twenty is on 3-4 degrees from number one. You are right we should be back in the top spot after Saturday. However, to take 4 degrees off and drop out of the top 20 from there would require an average temp of ~42 over the final week, which I don't see happening. More than likely, we average somewhere in the 50-55 range during that period and knock a degree or two off, landing somewhere solidly in the top 10 and perhaps top five. Like you said, the records are tightly bunched at that point. I will now stop disagreeing with people for the day haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My brotha, MDT has not been above 86 and neither has MU, which is a relatively warm spot for the LSV. It's likely most of us have zero 90 degree days in April. Now, if you're talking the Canderson hotbox, well, that may be a different story ha. You are right we should be back in the top spot after Saturday. However, to take 4 degrees off and drop out of the top 20 from there would require an average temp of ~42 over the final week, which I don't see happening. More than likely, we average somewhere in the 50-55 range during that period and knock a degree or two off, landing somewhere solidly in the top 10 and perhaps top five. Like you said, the records are tightly bunched at that point. I will now stop disagreeing with people for the day haha. It would not have surprised me to see some days averages dropping a half degree if we have lows in the 30's and highs in the 50-55 range. I did not do the math, but you are right, we would need 8 such days to drop it 4 so I overstated that a bit. Still think we shave off quite a bit IF modeling is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My brotha, MDT has not been above 86 and neither has MU, which is a relatively warm spot for the LSV. It's likely most of us have zero 90 degree days in April. Now, if you're talking the Canderson hotbox, well, that may be a different story ha. You are right we should be back in the top spot after Saturday. However, to take 4 degrees off and drop out of the top 20 from there would require an average temp of ~42 over the final week, which I don't see happening. More than likely, we average somewhere in the 50-55 range during that period and knock a degree or two off, landing somewhere solidly in the top 10 and perhaps top five. Like you said, the records are tightly bunched at that point. I will now stop disagreeing with people for the day haha. PS-I hope we do not start talking about Canderson's Hotbox....FWIW, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 PS-I hope we do not start talking about Canderson's Hotbox....FWIW, It's either his hotbox or his galesSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My brotha, MDT has not been above 86 and neither has MU, which is a relatively warm spot for the LSV. It's likely most of us have zero 90 degree days in April. Now, if you're talking the Canderson hotbox, well, that may be a different story ha. You are right we should be back in the top spot after Saturday. However, to take 4 degrees off and drop out of the top 20 from there would require an average temp of ~42 over the final week, which I don't see happening. More than likely, we average somewhere in the 50-55 range during that period and knock a degree or two off, landing somewhere solidly in the top 10 and perhaps top five. Like you said, the records are tightly bunched at that point. I will now stop disagreeing with people for the day haha. 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: PS-I hope we do not start talking about Canderson's Hotbox....FWIW, 18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: It's either his hotbox or his gales Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Sounds like a reprise is in order here: Who can hit the 90s? When no one else comes close? Make it so emphatic that it happens more than once - The Canderson can Oh, the Canderson can... The Canderson can cause he lives in the hotbox That downtown Harrisburg is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Sounds like a reprise is in order here: Who can hit the 90s? When no one else comes close? Make it so emphatic that it happens more than once - The Canderson can Oh, the Canderson can... The Canderson can cause he lives in the hotbox That downtown Harrisburg isLike the tale of the Edmund Fitzgerald, this needs put to musicSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sounds like a reprise is in order here: Who can hit the 90s? When no one else comes close? Make it so emphatic that it happens more than once - The Canderson can Oh, the Canderson can... The Canderson can cause he lives in the hotbox That downtown Harrisburg is Maytowns own Sammy Davis Jr! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Late nooners - 66 and partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, canderson said: Late nooners - 66 and partly cloudy My forecasted high has already been lowered from 80-84 down to 74-78 for today. That doesn't happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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