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Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion


John1122
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In NE TN, the heat wave has pretty much always looked bad on Saturday.  That said, I think we may be seeing a pattern change where the heat shifts east and stays 3-4 weeks.  I thought we might dodge the endless summer patterns of the past few years...looks locked in through the third week of September...that might be when the first cold shots arrive.

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to be fair, on my weather.gov, the forecast isn't showing anything much worse than what I've dealt with this summer (IMBY mind you!) Highs are forecast in low 90's and typically this summer we've been several degrees cooler than the high.  By Sunday it appears to be back into the low 80s

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2:30 and I've only reached 84 degrees. We will see where it gets to this afternoon, but this is looking like another toothless heatwave for mby. It may still get hotter Wednesday-Friday but three warm/hot days isn't nearly as bad as the GFS was looking a few days ago. As Carver noted, the extended at this point is met fall.

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Hillary and Harold both probably worked to amp up this ridge. TOP (Kan) and other balloons recorded record high 500 mb heights a few cycles ago. Then a damn stationary front caused pooling dewpoints. Only in 2023 do we get 70 dews below a 600 dm ridge.

And yes I am string to wonder @Carvers Gap about another September with AN dragging out worse than pre-season football. Can we just get to Real Fall? 

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4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Hillary and Harold both probably worked to amp up this ridge. TOP (Kan) and other balloons recorded record high 500 mb heights a few cycles ago. Then a damn stationary front caused pooling dewpoints. Only in 2023 do we get 70 dews below a 600 dm ridge.

And yes I am string to wonder @Carvers Gap about another September with AN dragging out worse than pre-season football. Can we just get to Real Fall? 

I know, right!  

As for this heat spell, I used the "q" word while "working in the ER."  The Euro Weeklies Control seems to like a cold front sometime around the third week in September.   Right now, I am just gonna keep looking at the Apple Wx app.  It has me in the low 80s next week, and I am gonna pretend that lasts for a few weeks.  It makes me feel almost as good as the extended CFSv2 ice age in perpetuity.  

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Just a quick addendum...this looks like we are in the middle of a pattern change where the warmth shifts eastward.  Thankfully, in about 3-4 weeks the norms make it tolerable. Looks like the first real chance for fall air has shifted to the month of October.  But let's see.  The tropics, as Jeff noted, can impact weather in ways that LR modeling has a tough time "seeing."  

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Only thing that bothers me, mostly because I have battered snow syndrome but we have been in a good, extended pattern for winter during the middle of summer and the odds of it being the opposite come winter is realistic IMO. Nothing scientific about my thoughts, just based on our luck around here.


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My big concern is the awesome BN shot above is going to the last gasp of the eastern trough pattern which has persisted since early June.  That said, modeling has erroneously broken down the eastern trough over and over again this summer.  Right now, LR modeling shows the trough push back for 4-5 days, and then eventually collapse as the ridge rolls eastward.  That said, Nino's favor more landfall hurricanes, and the reason is that ridge will sometimes set-up shop during early fall over the EC.  I do think by October we see a really nice, fall pattern.  I was hoping that we could avoid endless summer, but looks like next week might be a BN blip in an AN pattern.  Let's hope I am wrong on that!!!! 

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Just now, PowellVolz said:

Only thing that bothers me, mostly because I have battered snow syndrome but we have been in a good, extended pattern for winter during the middle of summer and the odds of it being the opposite come winter is realistic IMO. Nothing scientific about my thoughts, just based on our luck around here.


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Always a strong possibility...The best pattern is an NAO for summer (HOT), and then we lose it for winter.  LOL.

My thoughts are that we see AN temps through September, BN temps October through mid Nov, AN temps late November to early-mid Jan...then winter kicks in after that.  I could be totally wrong, but the 4-6 week pattern swings should begin soon which typify fall/winter...I think we might favor a typical Nino winter pattern.  Knoxville has beaten Kingsport in snow totals during 3 or 4 of the past few winters. Pretty staggering to think about, but that is why I am glad to see this Nina regime' leave.  Some years, Nina is a really good pattern in NE TN.  But the PDO alignment has made for very low snow totals.  I look for mid-late winter to produce into early spring.  I could easily be wrong....................

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John is right about that and called it early on...modeling has over estimated the heat here.  Originally, pretty sure we had highs in the mid upper 90s....We might hit those for two days.  They will be doozies w/ real feels between 100-102.  We are still below normal for the month and might finish that way given the temporary cool temps next week.  September looks AN though.  Let's hope modeling is missing the pattern change.  If anything, at least daytime norms begin to drop sharply by mid-month.

Hoping John gets the sweep!   

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Maybe it's the microclimate, maybe my weather station is off, but I measured a 109 heat index Tuesday between the ridges here in Halls.  Regardless, it's a nasty stretch here.  I can't really complain though, because overall it's not been a bad summer at all.  At this point, I just want storms.  I can handle heat when there's a threat of afternoon boomers.  Anyway, looking forward to fall temps.  Hope John gets the sweep as well!

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16 hours ago, John1122 said:

Hit 87 today. I feel like Friday is almost guaranteed to be 90+ but I'm holding out hope for a summer sweep. 

The GFS was 10-20 degrees too warm across the region a few days ago. It tends to go way to extreme with cold and heat since the last upgrade. 

Yeah it seems very unlikely that we hit 100 here. So far my warmest day has been 92 with this heat wave. I actually hit 95 back at the end of July with an 80 degree DP. That was the hottest day of the year so far. Calculated HI of 115. I'm sure my PWS was exaggerating the DP, but that was a brutal day. The DP's have been lower with this round of heat. 

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