dwagner88 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 I am running on a nearly two year streak of no triple digit temps. Last one was October 2021. That may end next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 12z GFS/GEFS combo has backed off decently on temps. 12z Euro is HOT as is the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Apple Wx app says 88 and rain. I am riding with it, because I don’t want to think about the other. LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Next week could be the hottest week of the summer in East Tenn. I believe the Mid-South already logged their hottest week. Ensembles are settling in on a clean ridge, not many if any t-storms. Ridge parks and simmers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Really strange you see a tropical storm hit Cali,happened like 84 years ago.I dont think id trust any model into the long rangre,not right now anyways 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 I don’t like how the end of the high temps keep getting pushed back every day. This time last week the heat wave only looked to last a few days. Now it’s going into the weekend. Not good. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 In NE TN, the heat wave has pretty much always looked bad on Saturday. That said, I think we may be seeing a pattern change where the heat shifts east and stays 3-4 weeks. I thought we might dodge the endless summer patterns of the past few years...looks locked in through the third week of September...that might be when the first cold shots arrive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 to be fair, on my weather.gov, the forecast isn't showing anything much worse than what I've dealt with this summer (IMBY mind you!) Highs are forecast in low 90's and typically this summer we've been several degrees cooler than the high. By Sunday it appears to be back into the low 80s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 Thought today might be the day, but capped out at 85.2. Clouds rolled in around 2:30 and it was mostly cloudy all afternoon into evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Looks like back to nice temps next week! Bout time for a fall thread. Just one more week of meteorological fall!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 2:30 and I've only reached 84 degrees. We will see where it gets to this afternoon, but this is looking like another toothless heatwave for mby. It may still get hotter Wednesday-Friday but three warm/hot days isn't nearly as bad as the GFS was looking a few days ago. As Carver noted, the extended at this point is met fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 I capped out at 85.8 degrees. Back down to 84 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Hillary and Harold both probably worked to amp up this ridge. TOP (Kan) and other balloons recorded record high 500 mb heights a few cycles ago. Then a damn stationary front caused pooling dewpoints. Only in 2023 do we get 70 dews below a 600 dm ridge. And yes I am string to wonder @Carvers Gap about another September with AN dragging out worse than pre-season football. Can we just get to Real Fall? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Hillary and Harold both probably worked to amp up this ridge. TOP (Kan) and other balloons recorded record high 500 mb heights a few cycles ago. Then a damn stationary front caused pooling dewpoints. Only in 2023 do we get 70 dews below a 600 dm ridge. And yes I am string to wonder @Carvers Gap about another September with AN dragging out worse than pre-season football. Can we just get to Real Fall? I know, right! As for this heat spell, I used the "q" word while "working in the ER." The Euro Weeklies Control seems to like a cold front sometime around the third week in September. Right now, I am just gonna keep looking at the Apple Wx app. It has me in the low 80s next week, and I am gonna pretend that lasts for a few weeks. It makes me feel almost as good as the extended CFSv2 ice age in perpetuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Ensembles this morning are showing the endless summer pattern....great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Just a quick addendum...this looks like we are in the middle of a pattern change where the warmth shifts eastward. Thankfully, in about 3-4 weeks the norms make it tolerable. Looks like the first real chance for fall air has shifted to the month of October. But let's see. The tropics, as Jeff noted, can impact weather in ways that LR modeling has a tough time "seeing." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Still worried about the heat getting pushed back a day at a time in the LR. Mid 90’s for Saturday now, around 90 on Sunday. But this is encouraging….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Only thing that bothers me, mostly because I have battered snow syndrome but we have been in a good, extended pattern for winter during the middle of summer and the odds of it being the opposite come winter is realistic IMO. Nothing scientific about my thoughts, just based on our luck around here. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 My big concern is the awesome BN shot above is going to the last gasp of the eastern trough pattern which has persisted since early June. That said, modeling has erroneously broken down the eastern trough over and over again this summer. Right now, LR modeling shows the trough push back for 4-5 days, and then eventually collapse as the ridge rolls eastward. That said, Nino's favor more landfall hurricanes, and the reason is that ridge will sometimes set-up shop during early fall over the EC. I do think by October we see a really nice, fall pattern. I was hoping that we could avoid endless summer, but looks like next week might be a BN blip in an AN pattern. Let's hope I am wrong on that!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Just now, PowellVolz said: Only thing that bothers me, mostly because I have battered snow syndrome but we have been in a good, extended pattern for winter during the middle of summer and the odds of it being the opposite come winter is realistic IMO. Nothing scientific about my thoughts, just based on our luck around here. . Always a strong possibility...The best pattern is an NAO for summer (HOT), and then we lose it for winter. LOL. My thoughts are that we see AN temps through September, BN temps October through mid Nov, AN temps late November to early-mid Jan...then winter kicks in after that. I could be totally wrong, but the 4-6 week pattern swings should begin soon which typify fall/winter...I think we might favor a typical Nino winter pattern. Knoxville has beaten Kingsport in snow totals during 3 or 4 of the past few winters. Pretty staggering to think about, but that is why I am glad to see this Nina regime' leave. Some years, Nina is a really good pattern in NE TN. But the PDO alignment has made for very low snow totals. I look for mid-late winter to produce into early spring. I could easily be wrong.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 23, 2023 Author Share Posted August 23, 2023 Hit 87 today. I feel like Friday is almost guaranteed to be 90+ but I'm holding out hope for a summer sweep. The GFS was 10-20 degrees too warm across the region a few days ago. It tends to go way to extreme with cold and heat since the last upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 John is right about that and called it early on...modeling has over estimated the heat here. Originally, pretty sure we had highs in the mid upper 90s....We might hit those for two days. They will be doozies w/ real feels between 100-102. We are still below normal for the month and might finish that way given the temporary cool temps next week. September looks AN though. Let's hope modeling is missing the pattern change. If anything, at least daytime norms begin to drop sharply by mid-month. Hoping John gets the sweep! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Maybe it's the microclimate, maybe my weather station is off, but I measured a 109 heat index Tuesday between the ridges here in Halls. Regardless, it's a nasty stretch here. I can't really complain though, because overall it's not been a bad summer at all. At this point, I just want storms. I can handle heat when there's a threat of afternoon boomers. Anyway, looking forward to fall temps. Hope John gets the sweep as well! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 16 hours ago, John1122 said: Hit 87 today. I feel like Friday is almost guaranteed to be 90+ but I'm holding out hope for a summer sweep. The GFS was 10-20 degrees too warm across the region a few days ago. It tends to go way to extreme with cold and heat since the last upgrade. Yeah it seems very unlikely that we hit 100 here. So far my warmest day has been 92 with this heat wave. I actually hit 95 back at the end of July with an 80 degree DP. That was the hottest day of the year so far. Calculated HI of 115. I'm sure my PWS was exaggerating the DP, but that was a brutal day. The DP's have been lower with this round of heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 It's currently raining here. Temp had made it to 84, it's down to 82 now. Gonna be a brief shower but it's pouring. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 It's currently raining here. Temp had made it to 84, it's down to 82 now. Gonna be a brief shower but it's pouring.Severe thunderstorm warning for east Knox Co and MRX is down under maintenance. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 Temp has made it back to 84.5 here after the rain moved out, as 4pm approaches. If by some miracle we can get a well timed shower tomorrow, the 90-free summer will be accomplished. No guarantee we can get a 90-free fall though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Western areas of the forum have not been as fortunate....dewpoints + temp = misery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 My PWS is 90.5 over 78.5 DP right now. Running way ahead of this time yesterday. HI calculates at 106. It's going to crack 110 at this rate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Certainly the hottest day of the year for me, my car is also covered in pollen. Just a few more days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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