Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion

[*Flash*]

15 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

KHAHUN,is a pretty amazing storm,just basically stuck in no mans land with no steering current to kick it.Today the Euro shows it going into South Korea around Mid week finally,tho this could change.This pattern if this storm gets into Korea/Sea of Japan should set up a +PNA.Think we could see once again the potential for a MId Level Ridge build back up to our SW,this would give us a decent shot at MCS action as we head towards next weekend and into it.Unless the models change,we  are fixing to get possibly  into a real wet pattern in several days

Can't wait until Force Thirteen does a simulated recap of this storm. Shape shifting hurricanes like Juan (1985), Joaquin (2015), and Leslie (2018) are some of my favorite storms to analyze in hindsight. 

[PowellVolz]

Even under sunny skies I only made it to 79 degrees yesterday. Warmer today, peaked at 83.1. 
Looks like some more storms possible tonight and tomorrow. I truly hope this pattern can repeat in winter at some point with BN temps and precip events. 

A saturated ground helps.


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[PowellVolz]

Up to 5.53 now.

When the flood warnings came out for Green Co I pulled up the radar and went back 3 hours. IMO the radar didn’t really give off flood warning vibes and the counties next to you ended up with rain totals about 1/2 as much. RadarScope is the app I use but they also had rain totals in the 4 to 5” inch range even though their radar wasn’t impressive in that area.

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[Matthew70]

16 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

KHAHUN,is a pretty amazing storm,just basically stuck in no mans land with no steering current to kick it.Today the Euro shows it going into South Korea around Mid week finally,tho this could change.This pattern if this storm gets into Korea/Sea of Japan should set up a +PNA.Think we could see once again the potential for a MId Level Ridge build back up to our SW,this would give us a decent shot at MCS action as we head towards next weekend and into it.Unless the models change,we  are fixing to get possibly  into a real wet pattern in several days

'

It’s amazing how wet this summer has already been.  If we don’t dry out some it could set us up for some major flooding issues going into fall & winter.  Long way out but I don’t see the wet weather shutting off anytime soon. 

[dwagner88]

12 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

It’s amazing how wet this summer has already been.  If we don’t dry out some it could set us up for some major flooding issues going into fall & winter.  Long way out but I don’t see the wet weather shutting off anytime soon. 

 I don't know about that. There has definitely been a lot of intense local flash flooding this summer, but all of the creeks and ponds around me are below normal levels. The MS river is also still really low. We would really need a more widespread precipitation event from a tropical system or two to bring about major flooding. Otherwise I suspect it will continue to be isolated to small areas that get dumped on. Like Union City yesterday or Greene County earlier this week.

 

In other news, 1.20" in the gauge today. We really needed it. The ground soaked it up like a sponge.

[Carvers Gap]

Probably time to fire-up the winter discussion thread(the pre-thread anyway).  Who has the mojo?  The new Euro Seasonals look really good, and follows a typical Nino 500 heights progression for DJF.   

[Carvers Gap]

Sign me up.  Trough east of Hawaii.  Ridge out West.  AN heights over Greenland.  That equals EC storm track.  Cold air supply TBD at a later date.  I am sure there are flaws in this pattern below, but that is a very textbook winter wx pattern for E TN.  Probably would have to go back to mid 2010s to find a pattern that showed up like this.  Mountain West would see a decent start to winter followed by AN temps for Jan and Feb and BN precip - these types of setups could portend a very dry summer out there next year.  The Sierra Nevada in California could see another great winter.  I almost think they had such a great winter this winter is that they benefited from the Nino transitioning early for their region.  

[Carvers Gap]

E TN would have slightly AN precip.  Middle and West TN show BN precip as the winter progresses.  Very typical Nino look.

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of looking into September (might be time to start a fall thread as well), jury is out on September.  Some modeling has the heat pushing eastward for a week or two.  The Euro Weeklies control shuts down summer in about two weeks.  Mixed signals.  So, I would go with a blend....some heat pushes eastward but we see the current pattern hold....trough re-establishes.  I tend to roll with John on this one, the worst of summer is likely behind us.  I doubt TRI is done with 90s, but this is a pretty established pattern now -> warm pushes eastward...trough kicks it out after 7-10 days.  Definitely much more precip IMBY during the past couple of weeks.  I am not a huge fan of MCS complexes though - damage city.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kind of looking into September (might be time to start a fall thread as well), jury is out on September.  Some modeling has the heat pushing eastward for a week or two.  The Euro Weeklies control shuts down summer in about two weeks.  Mixed signals.  So, I would go with a blend....some heat pushes eastward but we see the current pattern hold....trough re-establishes.  I tend to roll with John on this one, the worst of summer is likely behind us.  I doubt TRI is done with 90s, but this is a pretty established pattern now -> warm pushes eastward...trough kicks it out after 7-10 days.  Definitely much more precip IMBY during the past couple of weeks.  I am not a huge fan of MCS complexes though - damage city.

Excellent posts Carvers! Keep them coming! Could not agree with you more.

[Matthew70]

The awesome summer continues. Hopefully August will continue to be nice wet and cooler as it has been so far. Supposed to only be 79 here Tuesday loving it.

[jaxjagman]

Not sure.But right now it looks like Typhoon "LAN" is gonna hit Japan then track into the Sea of Japan where it gets absorbed by a cold front/boundary.After that a ridge builds into East Asia.Seems possible  that we see a ridge build into our parts possibly around into next weekend give or take,seems like what the models are hinting at right now

[Blizzard22]

4 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

The awesome summer continues. Hopefully August will continue to be nice wet and cooler as it has been so far. Supposed to only be 79 here Tuesday loving it.

Awesome summer ? I see nothing but Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings across much of the Southern US. It's been a summer to remember for sure.

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

Awesome summer ? I see nothing but Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings across much of the Southern US. It's been a summer to remember for sure.

Think hes talking about his parts and yes some parts in the Valley has escaped the brutal warmth,you must be further south/SW where i can understand where you are coming from.

[Matthew70]

8 hours ago, Blizzard22 said:

Awesome summer ? I see nothing but Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings across much of the Southern US. It's been a summer to remember for sure.

Sorry.  I should have said here in Mid TN.  It’s been overall a great summer.  Everything is green & only a few bouts of hot temp periods. 

[*Flash*]

9 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Sorry.  I should have said here in Mid TN.  It’s been overall a great summer.  Everything is green & only a few bouts of hot temp periods. 

100% agree. I was tellin' my wife the other day this may be the best summer since 2014 in terms of tamed heat and consistent precip. Not quite as cool in terms of mean temps, but more pleasant mornings/evenings relative to recent years. I'm still sore after a pathetic, underwhelming 2022-23 winter but this summer has been a decent consolation prize. ENSO seems to be doin' its thang. Let's just hope we're not encroaching on super territory a la 2015-16. 

[jaxjagman]

Not a very exciting look as we head into next weekend and beyond right now

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, *Flash* said:

100% agree. I was tellin' my wife the other day this may be the best summer since 2014 in terms of tamed heat and consistent precip. Not quite as cool in terms of mean temps, but more pleasant mornings/evenings relative to recent years. I'm still sore after a pathetic, underwhelming 2022-23 winter but this summer has been a decent consolation prize. ENSO seems to be doin' its thang. Let's just hope we're not encroaching on super territory a la 2015-16. 

I was thinking the same basically,its been warm but the humidity has been bearable,the past few weeks could have been much worse.Plus as long as ive been living in Tn this might be the best severe ive seen with plentiful MCS action this summer so far

[matt9697]

28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Not a very exciting look as we head into next weekend and beyond right now

We could use a ten day break where I am at in Sumner county. Cannot recall a August like this before. By now, I can usually fall back to every other week mowing, not this year! 

[Carvers Gap]

On 8/11/2023 at 4:40 PM, Blizzard22 said:

Awesome summer ? I see nothing but Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings across much of the Southern US. It's been a summer to remember for sure.

Our forum area is what he is referring to.  We have dealt with 3 straight Nina summers which have been scorchers in this region.  We probably have one more heat surge to deal with.  The Upper South has not been near as hot as the GC states.   It is super rare to have 70s as highs IMBY during August.  I was working a couple of days ago mid-day and probably could have used a jacked as drizzle came down.  In some cases, we are 20-25 degrees cooler than previous Augusts.  All of that said....we aren't out of the woods quite yet.  

Unrelated to Blizzard's post, I was thinking today that the leaf season should be really good this year as we aren't in a drought and trees aren't stressed due to heat(at this point).  If we can get a nice cold shot by mid-late September(just overnight temps), could see a really good leaf season.  All of this rain should help.

[nrgjeff]

Mid-South portion of our Region had a summer. The rest of us enjoyed a mild summer. Indeed we may all get it next week. Looks like a pretty stout ridge building. Twitter is getting a little carried away though. Did they forget Normal temps are dropping now?

Leaves look good right now. Even that heat won't be a problem before September. We need to avoid more of that crap though. I generally agree spring is more important than late summer. Exception is if that ridge parks for 3 weeks. Doubtful though. Ridges tend to be short-lived this summer before retreating to the Deep South, Texas and Southwest.

Maybe we can get a hurricane under that ridge for something to track. Though I'm not rooting for that over such warm SSTs, late Aug. is when the season usually ramps up quickly.

[PowellVolz]

In Knoxville, we have probably had as many 70 degree days as 90 over the past 6 weeks. Aug is on pace to be the wettest and coolest on record but I’m sure that will collapse starting this weekend


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[Matthew70]

More days like this please.  

[John1122]

Looks like summer misery will arrive just in time for football season. Dry and hot couple of weeks inbound. Hopefully the pattern breaks down towards day 10. 

[Carvers Gap]

We are going to have to see that big ridge in the middle of the country breakdown before we see the first fall air masses slide into place.  It is blocking cold air from moving eastward in the LR.  I would look for tropical systems to begin to destabilize the North American pattern sooner than later, but it sure doesn't show that right now.  Well, the CFSv2 always looks like the next ice age at the surfaces - always.  So, if you need some feel good modeling, you can always turn to it.

[John1122]

The GFS has gone bonkers or most of the Southeast is going to set all time record high temps. It's throwing out nearly 120 degrees in Mississippi. 113 in Memphis near the Miss border, 110 in Nashville. 114 in Indiana. 114 in Illinois.

It's done this often for the last couple of years and it's never remotely close to verifying.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The GFS has gone bonkers or most of the Southeast is going to set all time record high temps. It's throwing out nearly 120 degrees in Mississippi. 113 in Memphis near the Miss border, 110 in Nashville. 114 in Indiana. 114 in Illinois.

It's done this often for the last couple of years and it's never remotely close to verifying.

Yep it did this last year and was completely wrong.

[Carvers Gap]

There is one thing to never say to someone working in an ER.  Don't say, "It sure looks quiet tonight."  The Q word is something to never, ever say if indeed it is quiet.

Maybe one other thing not to say, "It looks like fall is on modeling.  The worst of summer is behind us."  I am guilty as charged.  This one is on me!

As noted by John, there is an extreme heat wave showing on the GFS.  The GFS tends to overcook things.  What worries me?  Modeling, ensembles and operationals across the board, are showing insanely warm air moving into our region later next week.  It is still in the 7-10 day range, so there is room for some moderation(not really room for it to get worse...high end of extreme on modeling).  We are talking 90F by 10AM on modeling w/ lows in the upper 70s to low 80s in even NE TN.  Hoping that is going to be wrong.  It looks temporary.  Modeling has for sure been hinting at temporary heat later in the month...but as it comes into focus, it is far warmer than LR modeling had it.  All-time highs would be at risk if modeling is even remotely accurate.

[fountainguy97]

78/62 here today. Absolutely perfect. Enjoying it before this heat wave of death hits.

[John1122]

My no 90s streak will probably end next week. The euro is much more believable than the GFS. It throws out a max of 93 for me. The GFS had 99 one day. Oddly, the GFS had me at 84 one day while Nashville was 109. It didn't even have a storm over my area at the time.