Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion

[jaxjagman]

Seems possibly like the the gfs is showing a possible phoon into East Asia along with maybe some TG into North America,but  could be a battle ground between the Pac and Atlantic.To far out to trust any model right now.but it wouldnt surprise me as we head towards the end of the month.Nino should get cranking as we get into August.Thinking this is gonna be like winter of 2015-2016 now maybe not that extreme,could be a good late severe fall into early winter,to far out to really know ATM

[Spartman]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Very end of July into early August remains a possibility for hotter than normal. However the bias has been for those forecasts to diminish inside 10 days. 

Using the Bering Sea Rule recently?

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Using the Bering Sea Rule recently?

I dont think what he is saying is releated to the BS,It seems to me there is a potential typhoon possibly gonna happen into parts of East Asia via a KW.Seems like to me this should build the heights up if it goes into South East China,then into Korea and Japan you could possibly see the upper and mid level ridge build into this region,this is a warm sign for us depending on the tropics this time of year..JMHO

[Spartman]

12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I dont think what he is saying is releated to the BS,It seems to me there is a potential typhoon possibly gonna happen into parts of East Asia via a KW.Seems like to me this should build the heights up if it goes into South East China,then into Korea and Japan you could possibly see the upper and mid level ridge build into this region,this is a warm sign for us depending on the tropics this time of year..JMHO

Early last week, there was a Bering Sea Ridge. I believe that was the first occurrence of it for this Summer.

And yet, another Bering Sea Ridge is forecast to happen within a couple of days.

[PowellVolz]

Seems possibly like the the gfs is showing a possible phoon into East Asia along with maybe some TG into North America,but  could be a battle ground between the Pac and Atlantic.To far out to trust any model right now.but it wouldnt surprise me as we head towards the end of the month.Nino should get cranking as we get into August.Thinking this is gonna be like winter of 2015-2016 now maybe not that extreme,could be a good late severe fall into early winter,to far out to really know ATM

Remind us what 15’ and 16’ winter was like?


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[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Remind us what 15’ and 16’ winter was like?


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Think thats when we had the snow dome,sure winter was crap here

[John1122]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Remind us what 15’ and 16’ winter was like?


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It was a late bloomer, but turned epic in from Mid Jan to Mid Feb. Lots of ice and snow, and even severe weather that winter.

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Think thats when we had the snow dome,sure winter was crap here

I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016.

[jaxjagman]

Just now, John1122 said:

I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016.

I tried to find something,still looking,think that was the winter the Southern Plains had a major ice storm,but could be wrong

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016.

Oh wow,you're right

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/record-breaking-snowstorm-wreaks-havoc-in-tennessee/1121498

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Oh wow,you're right

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/record-breaking-snowstorm-wreaks-havoc-in-tennessee/1121498

That not the right article but it does mention Jan 22,2016 and that winter

[jaxjagman]

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122#:~:text=The snow total of 8,in Nashville in 28 years.

[John1122]

I think most of the forum region got in on it, except maybe Chattanooga and Memphis. But they may have gotten in on it too. 40 corridor and north had several events of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Parts of Middle Tennessee got 12+ from one storm in January 2016.

[Greyhound]

I think most of the forum region got in on it, except maybe Chattanooga and Memphis. But they may have gotten in on it too. 40 corridor and north had several events of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Parts of Middle Tennessee got 12+ from one storm in January 2016.

If my memory is correct, Knox County Schools we’re out for two weeks. We had 3-4 snow events during that time frame, and below freezing cold for quite a few consecutive days.

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting updates from NOAA today re: winter.  Man, if I didn't know better, I would think they are banking on a front loaded winter which is exactly opposite of my own thinking.  Interesting.  Precip AN for each.  Please be award these will change w/ each month, so I will try to delete the post later next month.  Here is the link:

 

 

 

 

[Matthew70]

I’m at the beach in Perdido Key.  Interesting occurrence for end of July.  The ocean is cold.  Everyone is talking about it.  Even the workers are talking.  No one understands why it’s cold.  Which may help with red tide & hurricanes?

[John1122]

Looks like I may hit 90 this week.  Models are showing 91-93 but my point forecast says 89 as the max. I'd love to go a whole summer with no 90s.

[PowellVolz]

I’m at the beach in Perdido Key.  Interesting occurrence for end of July.  The ocean is cold.  Everyone is talking about it.  Even the workers are talking.  No one understands why it’s cold.  Which may help with red tide & hurricanes?

Interesting… I was at Cape San Blas a couple weeks ago and the water was bath water. I know Texas is having issues with red tide right now. Fish on the beach everywhere


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[John1122]

It may heat up this week but my high was 78 today and yesterday. Impossible to beat on July 22nd and 23rd. I guess I can deal with upper 80s because I know that we've missed two months of heat this Summer. 

[jaxjagman]

I dont know what the GFS is doing in East Asia,shows two strong typhoons going into South East China the next few days.One should be stronger than the other basically going into the same spot.But the Pattern is breaking down,this might even be our last warmest stretch we see as we go into August again for this summer as the MJO is seemingly going to get into the NH as we get into August.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

I dont know what the GFS is doing in East Asia,shows two strong typhoons going into South East China the next few days.One should be stronger than the other basically going into the same spot.But the Pattern is breaking down,this might even be our last warmest stretch we see as we go into August again for this summer as the MJO is seemingly going to get into the NH as we get into August.

I came here debating whether to post this.  Ha! Ha!  Glad you posted it, Jax.  

[Matthew70]

9 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Interesting… I was at Cape San Blas a couple weeks ago and the water was bath water. I know Texas is having issues with red tide right now. Fish on the beach everywhere


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I can’t explain it. No one could explain it.   Most were like why is the ocean so cold.  Even locals don’t remember it ever being that cold.  

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I can’t explain it. No one could explain it.   Most were like why is the ocean so cold.  Even locals don’t remember it ever being that cold.  

Ocean temps(lakes as well) can fickle fickle fickle.   Wind could have turned the ocean over and created upwelling of colder water.  It could just be an oddity within ocean currents.  Fishermen will often look for the seam where colder water meets warmer water...even if that seam is a vertical one and not striated horizontally.  Water temps are DEFINITELY cool in that area.  Interesting share.   81F water is not warm in the summer given how shallow the water is there.  

https://coastalwatertemperatureguide-noaa.hub.arcgis.com

[John1122]

82.4 for the high today and it seems very hot. That's how mild this summer has been so far.

[Carvers Gap]

John, you have been living large this summer.  TRI hasn't been too bad either...

Mid 90s at TRi for much of the rest of the week according to point-and-click.  We have hit 90(and only 90) 6x so far this month.  This "should" be the worst week of summer, but LR modeling at the end of August is showing some potential for heat spreading eastward from the Plains.  That is not unexpected.   My guess is that we see a sharp cold front at some point during the last third of September which just ends summer on the spot.  That is not exactly "going out on a limb" as that is seasonal climatology.  But after multiple Nina summers lasting well into October, that would be a welcome change.  

[jaxjagman]

On 7/23/2023 at 6:42 PM, Carvers Gap said:

I came here debating whether to post this.  Ha! Ha!  Glad you posted it, Jax.  

Lets hope so.We can still get warm in Sept,just look at last year Nashville hit 100 in Sept,think it was Sept 21.,but even that is still rare hitting 100 in Sept,probably influence from NINA as well.

[John1122]

Crept up to 85.1 today. Then storms fired close, but not quite over me. Got some clouds and that was it for the heating. 

I think we make a run on Friday to get over 90, if we don't get a well timed storm. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think Kingsport might be one of the hottest place in E TN today.  We have to be catching some downslope somewhere.  Temps in town are ranging from 90-95F on wxunderground.  Real feel right now at my place is 97F.  Easily the hottest day of the summer here w/ worse to come later this week.

On a positive note, we got a popcorn storm that parked right over western Sullivan/eastern Hawkins yesterday.  Amounts ranged from 0.75-1.30" of much needed rainfall.  We prob got about an inch of rain IMBY.  Two blocks away - zip.  That kind of rain storm.  I was no fan of the marble size hail.  Holston will know this....not sure it even rained at the bridge into our hood.

[fountainguy97]

Peaked at 89.1 so far today. Have yet to hit 90 this year but I think we will do it this week. I won't be surprised if this week is the "peak" of our summers heat. Can't complain at all about the year we have had so far. A welcome relief compared to the last few Niña springs and summers.

The gears of fall are slowly beginning to turn up north. August will be hot but my favorite time of year is just around the corner! This time of year is when I always start rummaging through old winter event threads and wishing for colder days.

[John1122]

I only got to 85.2 today. Currently sitting at 83.6 at 5:00pm.