Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

We are at 97..HI 113 was gonna go walk in the park earlier,my body said stay in the AC

Thank goodness for MCSes!

[dwagner88]

June is officially a shutout for 90+ temps IMBY. Only hit 86 today thanks to the MCS. I wish I knew what the statistics were on something like that. I bet it's rarely if ever happened before this far south.

[dwagner88]

19 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

June is officially a shutout for 90+ temps IMBY. Only hit 86 today thanks to the MCS. I wish I knew what the statistics were on something like that. I bet it's rarely if ever happened before this far south.

And just like that the streak is over. 91.2 right now with a HI of 105. DP is soaring at 77. 

[John1122]

Went from 83.8 which was the high so far to 83.6 as I was taking this. Looks like the heat wave that wasn't here. It is very humid but zero complaints. 

Gonna be borderline on the MCS moving due east from the midstate. Possibly a little too far north for it. It is getting cloudy here though. So that's likely the end of any additional heating. 

[John1122]

It's been cloudy since the storms this morning, so we've been hanging out in the upper 70s today. Another 10 degrees colder than expected day. The storms since the watch was posted are isolated. One passed just about 15 miles south of me. Heard thunder but no additional rain. 

Some activitity upstream. 

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the streak is over at TRI as well.  We hit 90 for an hour or two yesterday.  Given how oppressive last summer was, it still doesn't fell hot.  It looks like we still have 4-5 more days until the pattern "moderates" next weekend.  What we don't want to see is an established ridge over Bermuda.  I don't see that yet.  However, given the frequency of hurricanes during El Nino years later during summer, one has to think some sort of EC ridge establishes which will let tropical systems move towards coastal areas.  But really, I don't have a crystal ball.  Right now, the pattern appears to be BN air masses moving from Canada into the eastern 2/3 of the United States w/ intermittent strong AN air masses pushing out of the SW and/or Texas.  But really, I can't complain at all about the current weather pattern.  In 14-15, during winter this was the pattern during January and February.  Replace MCS w/ northwest flow...it was glorious here.  Easily, it was the most snow I have seen outside of 85-86.  I doubt this continues into next winter, but......the pattern that we just exited(Mountain West winters) seemed to last for nearly 8 years.  

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, the streak is over at TRI as well.  We hit 90 for an hour or two yesterday.  Given how oppressive last summer was, it still doesn't fell hot.  It looks like we still have 4-5 more days until the pattern "moderates" next weekend.  What we don't want to see is an established ridge over Bermuda.  I don't see that yet.  However, given the frequency of hurricanes during El Nino years later during summer, one has to think some sort of EC ridge establishes which will let tropical systems move towards coastal areas.  But really, I don't have a crystal ball.  Right now, the pattern appears to be BN air masses moving from Canada into the eastern 2/3 of the United States w/ intermittent strong AN air masses pushing out of the SW and/or Texas.  But really, I can't complain at all about the current weather pattern.  In 14-15, during winter this was the pattern during January and February.  Replace MCS w/ northwest flow...it was glorious here.  Easily, it was the most snow I have seen outside of 85-86.  I doubt this continues into next winter, but......the pattern that we just exited(Mountain West winters) seemed to last for nearly 8 years.  

Thing about this NW flow is definitely the BN temps so far for June which has been great. The wetter pattern is definitely helping also. The bad is to the smoke will continue to affect air qualities for much of us all summer if this continues.  It does appear the Canadian wildfires will continue all summer is what is being forecasted. Very sad for the wildlife & nature & environment overall. 

[Matthew70]

Hope everyone has a safe & happy 4th!

[jaxjagman]

The MJO is headed towards a wet pattern once again,,keep seeing signs of A Mid Level ridge trying to build up into South East Asia by the ensembles,if they continue this as we head into July later seems possible the we see the same towards the mid of July,with some dirty ridge.

[fountainguy97]

Checking in. It's hot. Is it December yet?

[nrgjeff]

We're gonna need these weekly charts to go ahead and be right. That would be great. (Office Space boss voice).

CFS and EC both go deep into August, and none blow up a SER. Relatex to Jax's post above, they have the week of the 17th hot, but it's July 17th so..

If those forecasts are right (not usually past week 3) then that'd be it for summer. One advantage is persistence, mostly mild with just a few hot spurts. El Nino and a cranking global wind continue.

Then trend is our friend until it ends. Hopefully we can hold onto the mild summer overall.

[John1122]

The stolen summer continues. It got to 80 today before the storms hit. Now it's in the lower 70s. July 2009 we were in the upper 70s and low 80s early month. The high for that whole month was 86. The 18th-25th that month we had low  to mid 50s for lows, one day at 49.  The high on the 19th was 69 degrees and it wasn't rainy.  July was around -5 overall that year. August was -2. That was also a transition to El Nino period during summer, that peaked at 1.6 in December. This years looks very similar as of the June forecast/average of the dynamical models. A bit earlier peak vs 2009-10 but falling into winter like 2009-10.

[John1122]

On the QBO front,  the 30mb reading has went from 12.89 in May to 9.26 in June, to a current reading of 0.72. It should be falling for the next 9-12 months. I've read in the past that how negative is reads isn't as important of a winter weather driver as it's direction. As long as it's generally falling in winter, it tends to lead to more cold/snow/blocking for the Eastern half of the country. Even if it's negative, if it's in its rising phase towards less negative numbers, it leads to warmer/less blocking.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, oddly the current QBO has the potential to get winter started early which is waaaaay against Nino climatology.  No idea if it can overcome that, but that drop is quick.  We definitely don't want it to bottom out early.  I do wonder if it maybe had something to do with that cool June that we just experienced - I have no knowledge about QBO and its correlation to summer temps.  I just know that many of our really good winters had it going negative during mid to late fall.  PDO is a big wild card as well as mentioned earlier.  Need it to push towards neutral and into positive range - key for big winters in E TN.

[Carvers Gap]

Check out this PDO data set, and then look at some of our favorite winters - positive or rising PDO for many of our modern great winters.  I do wonder if there is a connection between the drivers for the +PDO and the QBO?  

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[nrgjeff]

ECMWF and especially CFS weeklies have punted even that one hot week in July. Seems too good to be true, but the mid-range models 11-15 day stayed the same or even backed off. They were never super hot here. 

Bias corrected that normal 11-15 day is BN temps Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley. Deep South heat may creep into the Mid-South at times. Barring a sharp turn in the trend, easy ride may continue for East Tennessee.

Weeklies are usually only good for two weeks. Steady patterns in peak winter or peak summer can be useful 3rd week; we are peak summer climo. So there's a chance these benign weekly forecasts are right. And we get off easy this summer.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PNA looks to be a constant around Day 5-15+. I have noticed tremendous low model skill vs course correcting a lot in current conditions. When that SE ridge potentially pops in 5 days, and if we get warmer, watch for a trend warmer in the LR. 

[nrgjeff]

Best chance of a rude SER is probably days 15-30. Positive global wind could go negative which would play nicely with a -PNA.

Until then the Desert Southwest has their even ruder ridge with record highs forecast next week. That keeps us mild.

Even weeks 3-4 all models (mid-range and weekly long range) have exhibited a sharp hot bias for us this summer. Continued benign with out a few really hot days is my feeling. Trend is our friend until it ends.

[jaxjagman]

Models continue to show the Mid Level ridge building possibly into the Sea of Japan,Yellow Sea,this so far looks to be a  Baui front where along the boundary you should see MCS systems with torrential  rains into portions of East Asia.After this breaks down you could see  height rises into East Asia ,sure seems possible but like Jeff said lots unkown there is not really a big ridge into Korea and Japan but more into China we might possibly get spared,but several days to seemingly to watch

[Carvers Gap]

About an inch of rain BN for TRI right now.  It is isn't "drought dry", but it is getting dry.  Hopefully, Thursday into Saturday gets us even again.  90F count for TRI now stands at....two for the summer.  It is warm, but man, a nice departure so far from last summer.  Let's hope that this weather holds.  We are just about to the hottest part of summer....let's see what it does.

[Itryatgolf70]

50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

About an inch of rain BN for TRI right now.  It is isn't "drought dry", but it is getting dry.  Hopefully, Thursday into Saturday gets us even again.  90F count for TRI now stands at....two for the summer.  It is warm, but man, a nice departure so far from last summer.  Let's hope that this weather holds.  We are just about to the hottest part of summer....let's see what it does.

Carver, from what I understand, I believe we want to see central or west based niño with a -qbo for winter. Typically east based isn't good for cold weather here. 09-10 was similar to what I just mentioned. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Carver, from what I understand, I believe we want to see central or west based niño with a -qbo for winter. Typically east based isn't good for cold weather here. 09-10 was similar to what I just mentioned. 

Yeah, we don't want an east based El Nino in my opinion...agree.  I "think" I read that it is due to shift to mid-basin and west by mid-late winter.  We REALLY need the PDO to switch.  IMHO, that may be a greatly underrated metric.  

[Matthew70]

Absolutely spectacular wx today.  This evening no humidity & slight chill.  Incredible mid July & like this.  Everything is green & nice soaking rains this weekend.  Appears storm chances are coming later this week.  High humidity should mean some downpours.  Possibly strong storms.  Give me a good lighting show at night please.  Hopefully next week at beach wx is dry during daytime & lighting over the ocean at night. 

[John1122]

56.5 this morning was very refreshing. It's 75.4 degrees at 1pm. My A/C hasn't been on today at all. Hard to beat the A/C not kicking on on a mid-July day.

[Carvers Gap]

This is how crazy this summer has been.  We are now to the point that we can say this.  The days are getting shorter.  Football season is roughly a month and a half away.  We can now see fall on the Weeklies(though I can't see them yet as I haven resubscribed - soon though).  We can halfway have a decent conversation about even the lead up to winter if one is willing to ignore the micro-scale features and just look at macro stuff like SSTs/ENSO, QBO, PDO, and pick your favorite seasonal teleconnection.  So, there is now this to add to the mix...the first, non glacial ski slopes in the northern hemisphere likely open in less than 90 days.  This probably more banter, but considering that the forum normally has posts during summer(but way more posters this summer!...are we finally a 12mos forum!?), I am going to post it.  Live life to the fullest!

But “winter is coming.” At least in Finland. Levi, the nation’s largest ski area, and Ruka, another one of the largest, both plan to open on October 6th, 2023, the first non-glacial resorts in the northern hemisphere to do so. That’s less than three months away.

https://snowbrains.com/first-non-glacial-resorts-open-90-days/?fbclid=IwAR1-XFF4RU53BvRAZlrhHupNMOXuta95e6B4UXCq6M1SiBRer2VhqckHpt8

[Carvers Gap]

Really great stuff from the MA forum and worth a read.  Nice animation of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific.  Short of it, the El Nino is modeled to be basin wide by the beginning of winter.  Well worth a read. Click the light blue header.

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I think we are going to escape with a reasonable summer. It ain't over until the August lady sings, but evidence points to more of the same. Global wind has dropped*, but it's already progged to rise again (milder signal).

Now it does look like a hotter than normal period late next week and early the following week, so straddling the weekend of July 22. Anomalies in our region won't be too high, but it's the hottest time of year by climo. We all knew late June would not be the only hot burst.

*Note the next couple weeks could be a bigger national heat story, just thankfully not in the Tennessee Valley or Ohio Valley. Desert Southwest may set record highs. Texas goes back into the cooker.

Soon it'll be football season. Training camps open in the next couple weeks! Finland getting ski season going in October? Makes sense at that latitude. Big NATO ski party, haha!

[Matthew70]

Is it summer yet? Lol after the cold spring I really appreciate this wonderful summer it has been so far. The beach is next week for my family then soccer season games is in full swing starting first day of August. It does appear it’s going to feel like the tropics here later this week. It is very nice to see green instead of brown this time of year. My yard says thank you along with my water bill.

[Carvers Gap]

Finally re-upped my model subscription.  This must be what it is like to land a plane during fog.  Computer takes over and you hope it finds the runway.

Anyway, seasonal outlooks (you all know the drill with seasonal modeling) look the opposite of the last several winters, and that is to be expected given El Nino climatology.  Normal to BN heights build into the East during January and February.  Jeff has covered the rest of summer really well.  Fall, looks seasonal which would be excellent given the "extended summers" of the past few years.  As I noted somewhere (maybe this thread), it would not surprise me to see snow flying in the mountains on-time - which means later in October and early November.  I still think we see something like a false start to winter, and then December is warm-ish.  January and February look to favor Nino weather - cool(not excessively cold) temps and lots of cloudy/rain days.  This is kind of the opposite of Nina winters which feature fewer chances for precip but more cold interaction.  This is more like more precip w/ marginal air masses - but sometimes we score just due to more pitches in the pitch count.  

Of note, pretty big signal across modeling for the front range of the Rockies and Plains to fry in regards to temps during August.

[nrgjeff]

Dialed down the heat forecast late week by 4-5 degrees. Looks like scattered t-storms most days vs clean ridge. Risk is that MCSs timed night and morning still allow hot afternoons. However overall, heat forecast has backed off locally. 

Other parts of the US it's still Pain. Still the Tennessee Valley and Oho Valley have benefitted from a hot bias in models. In other words, the forecast gets less hot as the extended becomes short-term. 

Very end of July into early August remains a possibility for hotter than normal. However the bias has been for those forecasts to diminish inside 10 days.