Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion

[nrgjeff]

Yeah @Carvers Gap seems somebody in Riverton with my view of the world wrote that AFD, lol! 

Smoke has reached Tennessee, but nothing intense. Low dewpoints on the east wind is nice, but the high press up North is funneling in smoke. Sky is milky where it's blue. 

For a minute I was missing deep blue sky; however, the only path to that now is a pure tropical airmass. Eh, I'll take smoke (mild of course) over 70 Td.

[PowellVolz]

I see the CPC is saying this summer could be the coolest since 2017.  I say bring it please!!!! Some rain every 2-3 days & more humid than hot is just fine with me. I prefer green over dry & brown. 

2017 was terrible. It rained every weekend. Every time we had friends over to swim it rained. On the other hand, it was the only year I never put water down on my lawn and it never became stressed out.


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[PowellVolz]

Low temp this morning was 50, yesterday it was 52 and it’s Memorial Day weekend. What in the world is going on. Lol


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[nrgjeff]

Yeah I'm really enjoying these dewpoints. Fetch from the ENE goes all the way to New England. I know it won't last. Next week will gradually return to reality. It'll be June!

Guess the core of summer is humid either way, so hope for BN temps and AN rainfall. What I really want is some northwest flow thunderstorm action later in June. Only after that I will be ready for pop-up summer afternoon stuff. I'm not really counting on the NW flow part though. Week 3 is the wish-cast zone, lol!

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty textbook El Nino early summer pattern on several recent GFS runs.  Fingers crossed not only that it verifies but also continues!  

[Matthew70]

On 6/1/2023 at 9:41 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Pretty textbook El Nino early summer pattern on several recent GFS runs.  Fingers crossed not only that it verifies but also continues!  

We need rain.  Forecast looks dry thru next week. 

[Carvers Gap]

12 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

We need rain.  Forecast looks dry thru next week. 

El Niño is usually far more favorable for the eastern valley.  

[Matthew70]

Finally rain is in the forecast for tonight & tomorrow. Then very good % mid week.  Plus cooler wx for Monday.  I don’t like the dryness but sure have loved the fall temps in June.  Luckily I stayed ahead of the dryness & watering the yard has paid off.  Some spots are dead but not many. I do dread higher water bill. Another thing that’s going to cost later towards fall is removing & replacing 17yo Hollies. Also a 14yo Jap Maple.  Strange they started coming out & then died.  Lots of very old smaller trees & bushes are dead around here.  That freeze on Dec. did a number. 

[nrgjeff]

Our two Hollies are slowly recovering, but it took until late May and early June. Our Japanese maple is fine. Some others dropped leaves, but had bounced back already in Feb. Chattanooga didn't get it as badly as up there though.

Anyway the next week looks rainy around our region. Hopefully we can break the drought in parts of the region. Drought monitor shows dry and or moderate drought. If all goes well that's history after next week. 

Interesting pattern with strong 500 mb flow forecast next week. However, impulses (and LLJs) are timed night and morning, not really severe prime time. In summer one looks for MCSs not overnight severe. So, let the soaking rain begin.

[Greyhound]

We are headed to Mt LeConte midweek for a two night stay. I’m ok to hike in the rain, but the thunder boomers can stay away!!!


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[Matthew70]

Sure crossing fingers we get some rains.  Drought is setting in & longer it persists harder it is to bust.  

[Matthew70]

22 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Our two Hollies are slowly recovering, but it took until late May and early June. Our Japanese maple is fine. Some others dropped leaves, but had bounced back already in Feb. Chattanooga didn't get it as badly as up there though.

Anyway the next week looks rainy around our region. Hopefully we can break the drought in parts of the region. Drought monitor shows dry and or moderate drought. If all goes well that's history after next week. 

Interesting pattern with strong 500 mb flow forecast next week. However, impulses (and LLJs) are timed night and morning, not really severe prime time. In summer one looks for MCSs not overnight severe. So, let the soaking rain begin.

Glad to hear yours are recovering.  My hollows only have growth on the inside near trunk.  Very few patches of green on the outside. My Japanese Maple has leaves but half is dead now.  Had to other bushes that will have to be cut down to ground to start over if can.  Then we had 1 knockout rose bush.  It’s now dying.  Strange how some showed life then died.  Fall will be busy for me removing these 16yo Hollies & Japanese Maple. 

[John1122]

I had no noticible plant damage from the cold. Maples look fine, Japanese cherries looked better than ever. Apple trees have way more apples this year than most. 

All of them survived -10s a few years ago.

[Matthew70]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I had no noticible plant damage from the cold. Maples look fine, Japanese cherries looked better than ever. Apple trees have way more apples this year than most. 

All of them survived -10s a few years ago.

Amazing the difference in damage in certain areas.  Even my monkey grass has struggled to get going.  

[PowellVolz]

Amazing the difference in damage in certain areas.  Even my monkey grass has struggled to get going.  

My Otto’s are going to survive but they look terrible. I probably should have trimmed them back but I wasn’t sure if that would be too much stress on them. I’ll wait till the fall and cut them back 50%. My Crept Myrtles trees are struggling but it looks like my neighbors Crept shrubs are fine.
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[Carvers Gap]

By the end of June last hear, TRI had reached >= 90F 13x(including May).  Right now, we have not hit 90 yet.  I will try to dig back through the threads, but it seems like we have had a couple of summers with similar starts during the past 20 years.   During one of those summers, summer really cranked during late July and August.  During another summer with a slow start, summer temps rarely reached 90 all summer.  Having temps in the low 40s (flirting w/ some record min maxes earlier this month) for lows has been welcome.  I have very little disease in my garden right now which is often related to heat stress and warm overnight temps.  My garden last year was one of the least productive I have ever had due to the June heat.  It is ripping right now.  

I did not re-up my sub for LR modeling over the summer.  I can only see as far at Tropical Tidbits ensembles will take me which is about 16 days.  So, I cannot see seasonal Cansips or Euro data sets.   I can scrounge some tidbits from other forums with folks sharing their LR model data.  For now, looks like we might warm-up for a few day before slipping back into the western ridge/ eastern trough configuration which we have seen since late April-ish.  

As for where this goes during the fall, I would think there is less chance of endless summer if precip will resume and reach normal levels.  Dry wx often equals AN temps during fall.  For now, I am cautiously optimistic that we see a nice end to September and a normal October.  I lean seasonal to very hot for August.  

I suspect we will see maybe some early snows during November in the mountains.  December and a good portion of January could potentially be well above normal in terms of temps. Think 50s-60s w/ overnight lows in the low 40s in perpetuity.  Then, maybe we see cold air intrude far enough south by mid-late January/February(that's right, winter in Feb this year...maybe).  If the Nino is strong, I will go wall-to-wall much AN temps.  I am 55/45 on whether the Nino can get to those levels by mid-winter.  If we stay weak or low-moderate, we would be in business.  I think we reach strong moderate by late winter at the latest.  The QBO could potentially reach negative levels again by roughly November or early December(if the 14 month cycle holds true).  There is some decent evidence that a negative QBO does correlate to cold winters in NE TN.  Right now the QBO is stagnant between +9 and +12.  It dropped during May when in comparison to April.  Whether that drop is simply an ebb and flow of the index is not known at this point.   

[Carvers Gap]

This would be my overall winter forecast if pressed:

Temps

Dec:  AN

Jan: Much AN start/sesaonsal to BN to end the month

Feb:  Seasonal 

(If the Nino is classified as strong or super....much AN temps all months)

Precip normal to AN.

Snow.....BN for middle and west TN.  E TN, especially NE TN/W NC/ SE KY/ SW VA will be dependent on a storm track which should favor the Piedmont or coast during late Jan to early Feb.  Whether we get enough cold air in place to help is a giant question mark.  Nino winters are often 1-2 big storms along w/ lots of slush during other events.  The bitterly cold intrusions of last winter would be less likely.  This is more track dependent w/ "just enough" cold in place.  If this is a super Nino, warmth/zonal will potential overwhelm the pattern, and everyone strikes out.  If the super/strong Nino can hold off until next spring, there should be a window for winter weather during the aforementioned months.

[John1122]

On the QBO, winter seems to be better here (for snow) if it's falling in winter. It doesn't matter how negative it is from what I read a couple years ago, just that it's not rising. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

On the QBO, winter seems to be better here (for snow) if it's falling in winter. It doesn't matter how negative it is from what I read a couple years ago, just that it's not rising. 

Agree.  The timing of it for this winter, is optimum if it follows the traditional cycle(and doesn't double dip positive).  

[jaxjagman]

We sure could use some rain here.Good news it seems a ULL will nose into the Valley in a couple days and head into the southeast states,this should at least keep us in a unsettled pattern for maybe much of the week into the weekend as the PW'S look to be unseasonably high,just need a kicker

[Matthew70]

Starting this afternoon should be some great screen porch wx.  Actually has been for quiet sometime.  Last night it was cool for late June.  No add some storms/rain & that’s winning.  My yard is holding on due to watering & the cooler temps have helped.  
 

As for winter.  My beliefs are wx has a mind of its own these days.  Seems it’s going against what analogs & teleconnections say it should. Expect the unexpected.  Crossing fingers for a good winter but definitely not a cold snap like last Christmas.  No thank you to that type of cold. 

[matt9697]

14 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

We sure could use some rain here.Good news it seems a ULL will nose into the Valley in a couple days and head into the southeast states,this should at least keep us in a unsettled pattern for maybe much of the week into the weekend as the PW'S look to be unseasonably high,just need a kicker

Getting fairly dry here in Sumner County as well. Sure do wish we could have had a wet Spring before heading into the hottest time of year! 

[Carvers Gap]

I feel the last few winters have actually been generally pretty textbook w/ La Nina.  Last year had very few analogs as it was a third year Nina w/ a rising QBO(maybe one hand for analogs which fit that).  The first two years of this past La Nina favored middle and west TN for cold and snow chances.  E TN and the mountains had very few chances outside of early-mid December.  Big time snow drought in some eastern areas of our forum currently (due to a persistent Nina pattern).  Knoxville hasn't done terribly bad.  Most of us know how tough middle and west TN have had it during the 2010s, so we don't complain.  It has been nice to see those areas see winter chances of late.  All of that has a lot to do with storm track.  Also, the Mountain West(MT, ID, UT, WY) has been hammered w/ snow/cold during the past few winters - another textbook Nina pattern.  Conversely, I am not sure the snows in California(cascades) fit La Nina.  That seems more Nino...and those locals might have caught the initial waves of a transition to El Nino w/ the multiple atmospheric river events.  The equatorial Pac began to warm, and they got hammered.  John would know more about Mammoth since he watches that are regularly.  

But you are right, analogs are tricky.  I know we have at least one excellent meteorologist on this forum who(I think) firmly states that each year is its own analog.  There is a lot of truth to that.  I use general SST trends as those are most accurate for seasonal forecasts at this range.  Plus, I am an amateur.  I get to make predictions for fun, and nobody's money is riding on those prognostications. 

[John1122]

Had a nice soaker roll through earlier. Middle Valley areas look primed. 

[Carvers Gap]

TRI is -3.8F BN for June.  Honestly, it feels like late spring and not summer - dare I even say that.  We are now running 13 straight days of BN temps.  It has been cloudy all day today w/ periods of light rain.  A great run of weather for June.  Last June was a sauna.  This is nearly the exact opposite.  We will most assuredly have summer, but for every week we steal....just one less week of heat.  

[John1122]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

TRI is -3.8F BN for June.  Honestly, it feels like late spring and not summer - dare I even say that.  We are now running 13 straight days of BN temps.  It has been cloudy all day today w/ periods of light rain.  A great run of weather for June.  Last June was a sauna.  This is nearly the exact opposite.  We will most assuredly have summer, but for every week we steal....just one less week of heat.  

We are at 79/52 for the average temp month to date. Around 3.6 below normal. No 90s yet, imby. Hard to beat that heading into late June. The way it looks now, we may not see 90 this month. 

[1234snow]

TRI is -3.8F BN for June.  Honestly, it feels like late spring and not summer - dare I even say that.  We are now running 13 straight days of BN temps.  It has been cloudy all day today w/ periods of light rain.  A great run of weather for June.  Last June was a sauna.  This is nearly the exact opposite.  We will most assuredly have summer, but for every week we steal....just one less week of heat.  

Alot of days this month we have struggled to make it to 80. May not make it to 80 in many places this week. Hopefully much needed rains this week and not flooding for some spots. Knoxville area has had 3-5” of rain today estimated .

[John1122]

My tomatoes have hit the gas with the rainy weather. The plants are noticeably thicker and have probably grown 12 inches or more the last 72 hours. 

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, my tomatoes are loving this weather. Might be the best my plants have ever looked.  They aren’t heat stressed or drought stricken.  Disease struggles in this weather.  Setting plenty of fruit.  I put my peppers in raised beds.  Normally they can suffer due to those beds getting too hot.  Combo of raised beds and cool temps has been excellent.  Even okra, which loves heat, is doing well, and that is changing how I view that plant’s tendencies.  I always thought they loved heat.  It must just be the longer days. 
 

15 days straight of BN temps during June.  I count that as a massive plus for summer no matter what comes next.  

[PowellVolz]

Picked up around 3.5” of rain over the last several days.


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