Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

WSWs posted for West Virginia?  Am I seeing that right?  Upper Peninsula in Michigan as well(less newsworthy at that latitude).....May 2nd.  

[Carvers Gap]

I am noticing our higher elevations have rain/snow mix for tonight on the higher ridges(even Roan Mountain City...might be a good day to check web cams tomorrow for RM).  I was hardening off my tomato plants, and getting ready to put them in the garden...guess I had better wait!!!  Those mid-80s during early April alway fool me.  

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am noticing our higher elevations have rain/snow mix for tonight on the higher ridges(even Roan Mountain City...might be a good day to check web cams tomorrow for RM).  I was hardening off my tomato plants, and getting ready to put them in the garden...guess I had better wait!!!  Those mid-80s during early April alway fool me.  

Yeah we had snow flying Sunday evening here in the mountains and looks like there will be more to come in the high elevations. 

[PowellVolz]

I am noticing our higher elevations have rain/snow mix for tonight on the higher ridges(even Roan Mountain City...might be a good day to check web cams tomorrow for RM).  I was hardening off my tomato plants, and getting ready to put them in the garden...guess I had better wait!!!  Those mid-80s during early April alway fool me.  

from Clingmans Dome Sunday around 8pm the temp was 28 degrees with 100% humidity. Web cam is a still shot but it looked like it was snowing.


.

[Carvers Gap]

18 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah we had snow flying Sunday evening here in the mountains and looks like there will be more to come in the high elevations. 

That is wild.  Not unheard of, but one of the many reasons why tracking weather is interesting.  I was sitting at a track meet yesterday in 25mph sustained winds.  LOL.  We have run meets in 40 degree temps with drizzle, 85F temps, and yesterday the wind tempest(within three weeks of each other and at the same place)!!!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was reading the AFD for New Mexico for my annual field trip starting next week and thought some of you might appreciate it:

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 4 2023

Sarlacc pits look to be in full glory as the weekend’s forecast
is dry, windy, and warm conditions across the Land of Enchantment.
Southwest flow aloft, combined with a lee side surface trough
over southeastern CO will allow for trilogy of typical Spring
windy days this weekend through Monday. Hot days with highs in the
low 90s at Roswell will make it feel as if two suns are present.
Highs will be in the 80s and 70s elsewhere, with 60s at higher
elevations. Overnight lows will range from the 30s across the west
and north, to 40s and 50s at lower elevations on the dark side of
the day. Given the warm temperatures and very low humidities,
moisture farmers and blue milk providers will be all important to
stay hydrated.

A disturbance in the force, a presence not felt since…well
yesterday, begins to arrive into far eastern NM by Tuesday of next
week. Global model solutions are hinting at increased moisture
marching into the Caprock area increasing chances for afternoon
storms along the dryline. Cloud-to-ground light-saber lightning
battles, along with downburst winds, and hail will be main hazards
from any storm cell. However, most of the state will remain under
the oppressive regime of dry, warm, and windy conditions. By
Wednesday, the chances for afternoon thunderstorms looks to strike
back further into eastern NM. But we won’t tell you the odds as
forecast confidence is low this far out.

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was reading the AFD for New Mexico for my annual field trip starting next week and thought some of you might appreciate it:

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu May 4 2023

Sarlacc pits look to be in full glory as the weekend’s forecast
is dry, windy, and warm conditions across the Land of Enchantment.
Southwest flow aloft, combined with a lee side surface trough
over southeastern CO will allow for trilogy of typical Spring
windy days this weekend through Monday. Hot days with highs in the
low 90s at Roswell will make it feel as if two suns are present.
Highs will be in the 80s and 70s elsewhere, with 60s at higher
elevations. Overnight lows will range from the 30s across the west
and north, to 40s and 50s at lower elevations on the dark side of
the day. Given the warm temperatures and very low humidities,
moisture farmers and blue milk providers will be all important to
stay hydrated.

A disturbance in the force, a presence not felt since…well
yesterday, begins to arrive into far eastern NM by Tuesday of next
week. Global model solutions are hinting at increased moisture
marching into the Caprock area increasing chances for afternoon
storms along the dryline. Cloud-to-ground light-saber lightning
battles, along with downburst winds, and hail will be main hazards
from any storm cell. However, most of the state will remain under
the oppressive regime of dry, warm, and windy conditions. By
Wednesday, the chances for afternoon thunderstorms looks to strike
back further into eastern NM. But we won’t tell you the odds as
forecast confidence is low this far out.

Took a trip to Philmont during the late 80s and got caught in a canyon as lightning just hammered our area(fortunately we were not on the ridges).  Our campsite had a tree blown to smithereens.  We had several instances of lightning during our week long trip.   Unfortunately that summer, several scouts would perish due to lightning strikes throughout the course of the summer.  Storms there come up quickly and are fierce in New Mexico!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Nice stretch of early summer weather inbound.  Man, today has been beautiful.

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX on FB...great write up:

 

[TECHNICAL POST] Hi everyone! We have read your comments & questions the last few weeks about the wind we have all been enduring so far this year and wanted to share some data & insight into how this wind compares historically and some technical meteorology info that we can use to see how anomalous it is.

The line chart is # of wind advisories & high wind warnings issued for Eastern Tennessee, the mountains, and our counties in NC and VA. This archive dates back to 2005, so it’s not an exhaustive climatology. This weather office has indeed issued an unusual number of wind products so far this year.

The second image contains two wind roses. These are a bit more technical, but the basics of them are they display wind data by showing where the wind comes from and how strong that wind is. The plot on the left is climatology for Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport from 1970 to 2023 constrained to just January 1 – May 3 of every year. The right plot is just this year’s data. There are two important takeaways from these wind charts.

1. The average wind recorded at Knoxville McGhee Tyson since Jan 1 is the same as the long term climatology, roughly 7.5 mph

2. This year’s wind has been more extreme versus long term climatology. That is we have experienced a greater period of calm winds and a greater period of high winds. You can see this reflected in the wind rose centers where they show the Calm % and the dark red/maroon bars are larger in this year’s plot (right) than they are in the long term climatology (left).

The next logical step is to ask “why”. Best guess is the active pattern that existed out west (if anyone has seen the news about California snow) has translated to a good setup for windy days for us. The last chart is the most technical plot of the three, it shows where low and high pressure systems have been anomalously frequent over the same areas of the country. In the blue and purple areas, multiple low pressure storm systems have tracked through those areas and in the green and yellow areas, multiple high pressure ridges have tracked. Between a low and a high, a pressure gradient is formed. For us meteorologists, this plot hints that we have been in a setup this year that has allowed for strong pressure gradients over Tennessee, and that gradient is what drives the winds we’ve been seeing. That same image also explains why we did not see a snowy winter - all of the good setups for snow were out west!

So, in conclusion we have indeed experienced some unusually strong and persistent winds here in the Tennessee valley. While it averages out to normal, our windy days have been windier and our light wind days have been calmer. The good news is we do experience a more calm wind-wise pattern in the summer months owing to a different climatological pattern that doesn't allow for these strong pressure gradients to set up over Tennessee. However, summer thunderstorms can always deliver strong wind gusts in their own right!

 

 

[PowellVolz]

Haven’t been on the board much lately… any drought concerns going forward?


.

[Carvers Gap]

19 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Haven’t been on the board much lately… any drought concerns going forward?


.

Definitely dry IMBY.  I see on the US drought monitor that the souther Plateau slipped into yellow.  Maybe building drought which is common w/ La Nina during early summer - guessing that is a hangover.  El Nino should take over at some point sooner than later...for now definitely dry.

[Carvers Gap]

I don't have access to LR modeling right now as I normally cancel subs during the summer.  Looks like ensembles want to park a stout ridge out West in the medium and LR.  That "should" help with drought conditions here - maybe?  Nino signal for sure on those ensembles.   Are they too quick?  Maybe.  Maybe some concern for MCS influence when that comes into play.  @nrgjeffwill have the best handle on the upcoming pattern.  Maybe he will drop by....

[Matthew70]

55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely dry IMBY.  I see on the US drought monitor that the souther Plateau slipped into yellow.  Maybe building drought which is common w/ La Nina during early summer - guessing that is a hangover.  El Nino should take over at some point sooner than later...for now definitely dry.

We definitely need rain. 

[PowellVolz]

I don't have access to LR modeling right now as I normally cancel subs during the summer.  Looks like ensembles want to park a stout ridge out West in the medium and LR.  That "should" help with drought conditions here - maybe?  Nino signal for sure on those ensembles.   Are they too quick?  Maybe.  Maybe some concern for MCS influence when that comes into play.  [mention=2545]nrgjeff[/mention]will have the best handle on the upcoming pattern.  Maybe he will drop by....

I was reading the SE forum and they think MCS season is about to get going. Southerly flow at the surface with a NW flow aloft. Should have some buoyancy with a good mixed layer that will help lapse rates along with micro burst. Doesn’t take much shear, especially if there’s left over boundaries from other storms. Seems like it’s been a while since we’ve had a true bowling ball come through.


.

[PowellVolz]

We definitely need rain. 

I’m worried about it. Winter/spring was about average on rain. I was realizing hoping for a really wet start to summer to help with vegetation/lawns. Picking up a moisture manager this week for my front yard.


.

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I was reading the SE forum and they think MCS season is about to get going. Southerly flow at the surface with a NW flow aloft. Should have some buoyancy with a good mixed layer that will help lapse rates along with micro burst. Doesn’t take much shear, especially if there’s left over boundaries from other storms. Seems like it’s been a while since we’ve had a true bowling ball come through.


.

Yeah, anytime you see a trough over E NA during late spring or early summer...hang on tight.  It has been a while since we have seen that threat.  But man, when it locks in...better make sure the insurance is good.  They do a lot of damage up here.  They can have a difficult time getting over the Plateau, but if they can overcome the hilly terrain in SE KY and SW VA, look out.  NE TN gets hammered by those far to often.  I really don't like them.  LOL.

[Matthew70]

Nature does seem out of whack.  I am noticing not as many birds, butterflies, trees struggling even dying after showing signs of emerging.  My Hollie’s are budding some but at the rate they are it will be late this year before they have leaves.  I had 2 beautiful spruce trees that were budding new growth now the new growth is dying.  Same with my Japanese maple. Other bushes  like Azaleas are slowly coming back but again will be several more months before they have leaves.  Unbelievable how messed up nature seems to be. 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like we have our first "sort of " MCS complex arriving from the north early this afternoon in NE TN.  So far, the storms don't seem to be overly severe as the thunderstorm warning were just dropped.  We will see if they re-strengthen which can be a common characteristic as the afternoon warms.

[Matthew70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like we have our first "sort of " MCS complex arriving from the north early this afternoon in NE TN.  So far, the storms don't seem to be overly severe as the thunderstorm warning were just dropped.  We will see if they re-strengthen which can be a common characteristic as the afternoon warms.

Rain is welcome. Parts of my yard are dying already.  It’s only first half of May!

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Rain is welcome. Parts of my yard are dying already.  It’s only first half of May!

Rainy pattern looking likely for at least the next seven days.  Transition from spring to summer and Nina to Nino make this a very tricky time to forecast.  My guess is we see some MCS stuff for a couple of weeks and then switch to typical summer rains.   If Nino is finally taking over in terms of the troposphere, summer heat might be tolerable.  Next winter looks quite warm if this goes to a moderate to strong state.  I would almost go wall-to-wall.  Still holding back on that for now.

[PowellVolz]

Looks like we have our first "sort of " MCS complex arriving from the north early this afternoon in NE TN.  So far, the storms don't seem to be overly severe as the thunderstorm warning were just dropped.  We will see if they re-strengthen which can be a common characteristic as the afternoon warms.

Got hit pretty good around Knoxville. Several hail reports and a few trees down, especially along the 75 corridor through Knox Co. I picked up about .75”. Some places got around an inch. Exactly what the Dr ordered


.

[Matthew70]

55 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Got hit pretty good around Knoxville. Several hail reports and a few trees down, especially along the 75 corridor through Knox Co. I picked up about .75”. Some places got around an inch. Exactly what the Dr ordered


.

We got hit really good here in mid TN also.  We have many more rounds to go it appears from radar.  Love it!  Hate it for the Taylor Swift fans.  They are packed into the halls.  Wet & sweaty!  Luckily my wife & daughter & friends went yesterday.  

[nrgjeff]

Yes @Carvers Gap @PowellVolz the thunderstorms have a more summer feel than spring right now. Feels early, but we need the rain. Northwest flow is morphing into zonal with waves kicking out of the Plains. 

This week into the weekend looks warm. Next week temps should back down closer to normal. That NW flow may be the dry version. Wind should calm down when the pattern is less active.

[Matthew70]

I see the CPC is saying this summer could be the coolest since 2017.  I say bring it please!!!! Some rain every 2-3 days & more humid than hot is just fine with me. I prefer green over dry & brown. 

[Carvers Gap]

21 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I see the CPC is saying this summer could be the coolest since 2017.  I say bring it please!!!! Some rain every 2-3 days & more humid than hot is just fine with me. I prefer green over dry & brown. 

Good to hear.  The West is baking, so Nino appears to be establishing itself as we speak.

Likely means the hangover from La Nina is just about over.  Nino summer are decent in terms of temps.  Moderate to strong Ninos during winter are.....not so much.  Highs in the 50s.  Lows in the 40s.  Cloudy for weeks.  Snow chances very low west of the Apps, much lower west of the Plateau.  The Apps do ok...valleys -> it is very tough.  Leaning towards an upper end-weak Nino to moderate. BIG differences in the TN Valley between weak and moderate.  The good thing is that we are coming off three consecutive La Ninas and the SST gradient may help us.  The pool of analogs will likely be quite small.  

As of now my thinking for temps:

Dec: Much AN

Jan: AN but transition to seasonal as the month progresses(overall temps AN for Jan)

Feb: Seasonal

Snow(areas east of Plateau):

Dec:  Well BN

Jan: Normal-ish(big question mark here)

Feb: Normal

Precip:  AN Fall and Winter

Interestingly, the endless summer of La Nina climo will be less likely this fall.  Might see a cooler start to fall in regards to normals, and then AN temps as fall ends and winter begins.  If the El Nino stays weak for DJF, the eastern valley would be in play from mid-Jan to early March.  Nino winters are sit-and-wait since they are often back loaded.

[Carvers Gap]

Out of Riverton, WY, today.  It sounds like @nrgjeffwrote the afternoon disco.  LOL!!!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
128 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

High pressure is currently building over the state today. And
normally, this would mean a nice spring day with sunshine, mild
temperatures and light to moderate wind. The problem is courtesy of
our neighbors to the north, where smoke from the abnormally large
fires in Alberta and Saskatchewan are making going outside like
stepping into a bar in the 1970s when the requirements were a
leisure suit and a pack of unfiltered Camels. My lungs and throat
are begging for mercy. Anyway, it looks like the smoke should,
hang around at least through the night. As for the chance of
convection, it is not zero. However, the rising heights as well as
the smoke are decreasing instability. There could be a couple in
and near the mountains, but a vast majority of the area will
remain rain free.

[Matthew70]

Wow. After the rains this morning. This afternoon has been totally refreshing.  Now I’m sitting on my screen porch & it’s like fall!  Absolutely love this wx.  It’s supposed to be upper 50’s for lows all week!  Yes please! I hope summer is cooler than normal with nights like this.  The longer the heat holds off the shorter the span of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The next two weeks look abnormally dry.  Let's hope that is short-lived.  I don't think there is a significant drought upcoming given El Nino, but...that is how droughts get anchored(early and prolonged absence of rain during early summer).  Again, I think that is unlikely, but for those at any level of agriculture... it is a royal pain in the tail.  

[Itryatgolf70]

22 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The next two weeks look abnormally dry.  Let's hope that is short-lived.  I don't think there is a significant drought upcoming given El Nino, but...that is how droughts get anchored(early and prolonged absence of rain during early summer).  Again, I think that is unlikely, but for those at any level of agriculture... it is a royal pain in the tail.  

Hello Carver. I think if we see a strong niño this winter, we will want to see a -qbo to have any chance to get a colder winter. We had a few opportunities back in the 2015-16 winter, despite a super El niño. 

[Matthew70]

Well so far the wx is bucking the forecast. We ended up with a nice rain this evening.  Continuing our every     2-3 days of a good rain. Most chances here Friday & Saturday.  Temps look to hold steady with highs low to mid 80’s & lows near 60!  More please!