Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion

[John1122]

Now the dreaded season (for me) is upon us. Heat, storms, flooding and waiting on that first cold front in September to arrive and seeing those first lows in the 40s. I don't know what the summer will bring, but we know it will be hot and humid. Severe season is already off to a bad start with the tornado outbreak that spurred a lot of fatalities last week. I know it can't be avoided but I hope we don't have any more this spring.

[John1122]

Looks like early A/C use is going to be on tap. May have to turn it on tomorrow. I don't care for 80s in April. If it's not going to come a random snow, I prefer upper 60s/upper 40s. 

[Carvers Gap]

Feels like mid-summer today!

[*Flash*]

The warmth is notable at this time of day. Feels gross by early April standards but we've seen hot April days before even coming off A-grade winter. For some reason, April 2, 2010 comes to mind. Record high day for BNA at 91 or 92? Either way, I’m glad the pattern is still transient. Similar to John, Mid-May is when the dread finds me. Give me a summer 2013/2014 repeat and I may change my tune a little. 

[John1122]

That was a mean cold front this afternoon. Went from 75 to 53 in about two hours on stiff north winds. 

[*Flash*]

Pretty remarkable to see a rainless week in early/mid April. Sure looks like we have one on our hands coming up. We’ll need some more rainy days by month’s end but the lower humidities will feel good for a while.

[Matthew70]

On 4/3/2023 at 1:15 PM, John1122 said:

Now the dreaded season (for me) is upon us. Heat, storms, flooding and waiting on that first cold front in September to arrive and seeing those first lows in the 40s. I don't know what the summer will bring, but we know it will be hot and humid. Severe season is already off to a bad start with the tornado outbreak that spurred a lot of fatalities last week. I know it can't be avoided but I hope we don't have any more this spring.

I believe severe season is coming to a close for this area.  Hopefully & thankfully. I love seeing the green but dread the hot & dry to come. Sadly it will be August before we know it & winter knocking on the door.  Amazing how the older one gets the faster time does go. May is my favorite month. March is my least favorite. 

[Stovepipe]

So, what do we think about the threat of frost from here on out?  Is Monday night looking sketchy or no?  I need to get 'maters in the ground.

[Carvers Gap]

I am moderately concerned of a spin-up on the EC(tropical or hybrid).  If that occurs, it could usher very cold air west of the Apps.  It is probably a red herring in modeling, but it has my attention.  My stuff is going in the ground during the last week of April if warm temps continue.  Ground temps, even with a cold snap, are unexpectedly decent.  The lack of rain has helped warm up temps.  So, in terms of frost, I doubt NE TN has seen its last.  I am not even sure I have seen the last flake of snow IMBY which seems surreal given the late June temps we have had here!  Again, likely warmth continues...but the spin-up is the concern.

[John1122]

4 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

So, what do we think about the threat of frost from here on out?  Is Monday night looking sketchy or no?  I need to get 'maters in the ground.

I can't here until May 7th. We have a freeze the first week of May about every other year. 

[PowellVolz]

Some ULL type cells out there today, several hail reports down towards Blount/Knox/Sevier Co line.


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[Matthew70]

Quiet the cold snap coming this weekend.  Of course in Cincy for soccer showcase.  Cold & wet.  

[nrgjeff]

If you liked Monday and Tuesday, you'll love next week. Looks like a few days of cool nights/mornings and mild afternoons. More than a pair of days, but not quite several days. 

These warm days are nice too. Does not feel anything like summer, barely even late spring. Dewpoints are very low and the sun angle is not quite there yet. It's just over half way. The warm side of that glass half something, I concede that's also late August going into Labor Day sun angle. Explains some AC even though it's nice out.

OK back to my Severe Weather thread safe space. Virtue signaling has been a little smug recently.

[John1122]

I'm hoping next week is the last frost, as I expect it will frost here. It's been a frosty week so far, yesterday morning it was 33. 

[Carvers Gap]

Whew.  Going for record highs on Friday.  Not a fan.  Looking forward to next week.  

[Matthew70]

It is really dry for this time of year I feel.  Mowing the yard & dust everywhere.  Some of my yard already shows browning from being dry.  Not good with summer closing in.

[PowellVolz]

It is really dry for this time of year I feel.  Mowing the yard & dust everywhere.  Some of my yard already shows browning from being dry.  Not good with summer closing in.

I’m already seeing my fescue get some stressed areas. Not sure I’ve ever seen that this early. Guess I’ll apply my moisture manager now.


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[GaWx]

Does anyone know what happened in your area exactly 113 years ago?

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

Does anyone know what happened in your area exactly 113 years ago?

Answer: the latest accumulating snowfall on record for much of the TN Valley and nearby. Nashville got 1.5" on 4/25/1910, which is their latest accumulating snow on record by 15 days (back to 1885)!
 
 Chattanooga got an amazing 4.1" that day, which is still their latest accumulating snow on record (back to 1879) by a whopping 17 days! Also, one has to go all of the way back to one full month prior to find as heavy a late season snowstorm (3/25/1971). Their high on 4/25/1910 was a mere 39!

[Stovepipe]

How frosty do we think next Monday morning will be?  I just got my tomatoes in the ground, so I'm bracing for the worst I guess.

[PowellVolz]

Answer: the latest accumulating snowfall on record for much of the TN Valley and nearby. Nashville got 1.5" on 4/25/1910, which is their latest accumulating snow on record by 15 days (back to 1885)!
 
 Chattanooga got an amazing 4.1" that day, which is still their latest accumulating snow on record (back to 1879) by a whopping 17 days! Also, one has to go all of the way back to one full month prior to find as heavy a late season snowstorm (3/25/1971). Their high on 4/25/1910 was a mere 39!

Knoxville?


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[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Knoxville?


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Yes, they got it, too. They got 0.7", which like for the other cities mentioned is the latest measurable on record (back to late 1800s). Their high was 45 and low was 33. That high is still the coldest that late in the season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think we are heading toward a hotter Summer. It's been a bit of an anomaly to not have a very above average May-June since 2012. We are also trending this way by looking at the last 3 years. 

[Daniel Boone]

On 4/24/2023 at 10:07 PM, GaWx said:

Does anyone know what happened in your area exactly 113 years ago?

Wise Virginia, recorded 3 inches of Snow May 7 1989. Pennington gap, Va a Dusting that Morning with an afternoon high of 42.

Eastern Ky and portions of extreme SWVA received up to 10 inches May 20, 1894. Even Lexington recorded 6 inches. Another System brought Eastern Ky several inches the 24th.

[John1122]

In the 1910s in early May there was a large event that my grandfather and great uncle talked about here on the northern Plateau. It flattened corn and they went rabbit hunting in the snow. 

 

This week looks like another potentially frosty one, with a low in the mid-30s currently predicted for mid-week. In my bowl that usually means freezing temps. It was 38 this morning. The wind will keep any potential frost away tonight.  This exact scenario is why i plant tomatoes around Mother's day. 

[Matthew70]

This wx is bi polar.  Windy is an understatement for this spring.  It’s also to dry for this time of year.  To think in three months we will be right on the verge of fall again.  

[Carvers Gap]

Snow fell at 5,500' last night(just a dusting on LeConte).  Wind chills were projected by the crew at the Lodge to be near 0 overnight.

[Carvers Gap]

April finished only 0.8F above normal after two days at 85+.  Overnight lows were actually below normal which is a testament to the number of days without rainfall - only 2.64" of rain for the entire month of April at TRI.  Dry spells equal cold nights quite often here in NE TN.  The La Nina hangover is upon us.  Hopefully, we see rainfall pick-up by mid-summer.  

The Mountain West has really warmed up as places in western WY and NE Utah set records for seasonal snowfall.

[Matthew70]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

April finished only 0.8F above normal after two days at 85+.  Overnight lows were actually below normal which is a testament to the number of days without rainfall - only 2.64" of rain for the entire month of April at TRI.  Dry spells equal cold nights quite often here in NE TN.  The La Nina hangover is upon us.  Hopefully, we see rainfall pick-up by mid-summer.  

The Mountain West has really warmed up as places in western WY and NE Utah set records for seasonal snowfall.

We definitely need rain.  The winds have dried the soil out. 

[Jed33]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

April finished only 0.8F above normal after two days at 85+.  Overnight lows were actually below normal which is a testament to the number of days without rainfall - only 2.64" of rain for the entire month of April at TRI.  Dry spells equal cold nights quite often here in NE TN.  The La Nina hangover is upon us.  Hopefully, we see rainfall pick-up by mid-summer.  

The Mountain West has really warmed up as places in western WY and NE Utah set records for seasonal snowfall.

I hear ya about the dry weather. Only picked up 2.28in for April imby. Also, I’m definitely in agreement on the wind this Spring. I don’t ever recall there being this much wind in years gone by.