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April Discobs 2023


George BM
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  On 4/27/2023 at 1:04 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure how accurate this is, but implies a soaker ahead.

 

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I do know something about this.  NCAR is running FV3-based ensembles at 3km over the US (13km global) out to 204 hours and MPAS ensembles at 3km over the US (15km global, tapered) out to 132 hours.  Just from a couple of days of looking, it seems like the probability matched mean is generally higher than the straight ensemble mean.  Here is where we are for the first event:

FV3

FV3.thumb.png.7ea8c6f683f1ad1ad3d850c9ac6f1d01.png

 

MPAS

MPAS.thumb.png.7f8dde840701d0f6eebb91f6feb26c6b.png

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  On 4/27/2023 at 2:33 PM, mattie g said:

2" of rain over 3-4 days should be nice, even if the weekend won't be.

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Agreed. It's been so dry that some of the waterways in Montgomery County have dropped below the level for our flood gages and are reading zero water level. When we had the rain last Saturday, there were watersheds so low that it took close to 4 hours to even see a small response on portions of Great Seneca Creek and Cabin John Branch.

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  On 4/27/2023 at 2:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Interesting @MN Transplant. We'll see how accurate this is for the weekend. Maybe another tool in the kit for future events?

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Right now they are only going to be running this during the Spring Experiment period (mostly May), but it is forward-looking towards what we will see in the future with modeling.  

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  On 4/27/2023 at 2:33 PM, mattie g said:

2" of rain over 3-4 days should be nice, even if the weekend won't be.

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Agree also.  I'm in a bit of a micro-climate where higher elevations from my W around to my NE result in a "shadow" effect where lines and clusters of spring/summer thunderstorms frequently miss or split around.  I need to cash in on this synoptic rain

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  On 4/27/2023 at 8:28 PM, BlizzardNole said:

I've been watching that as we have a big family event Saturday -- it's looking more and more like we get a break in the rain during the day, and maybe if we're lucky we'll have a few peeks of sun.  Temps look nice

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  On 4/27/2023 at 8:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

18z Sat to 00z Sunday look fairly rain free, but clouds might hang tough up your way.

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  On 4/27/2023 at 8:30 PM, mattie g said:

18z 3km NAM is a beatdown on Friday.

@mappy...it's looking like Saturday should clear up before the rains come back for Sunday-Monday.

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Thanks all. Kid has an outdoor dance thing from 12-3, hoping it stays dry enough that the event isn’t cancelled.

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  On 4/28/2023 at 2:34 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Short term guidance starting to highlight some beefier totals along the US 29 corridor, somewhere between Laurel and Fairfax. Wonder if there's some kind of low level convergence being picked up by the HRRR/NAM family?

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Yeah, the big totals are coming from some training that goes on in the afternoon on the HRRR.

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