osfan24 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Looks like Friday and Sunday are trending to soakers and Saturday trending to pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Looks like Friday and Sunday are trending to soakers and Saturday trending to pretty dry. B-e-a-utiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not sure how accurate this is, but implies a soaker ahead. I do know something about this. NCAR is running FV3-based ensembles at 3km over the US (13km global) out to 204 hours and MPAS ensembles at 3km over the US (15km global, tapered) out to 132 hours. Just from a couple of days of looking, it seems like the probability matched mean is generally higher than the straight ensemble mean. Here is where we are for the first event: FV3 MPAS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Interesting @MN Transplant. We'll see how accurate this is for the weekend. Maybe another tool in the kit for future events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 2" of rain over 3-4 days should be nice, even if the weekend won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: 2" of rain over 3-4 days should be nice, even if the weekend won't be. Agreed. It's been so dry that some of the waterways in Montgomery County have dropped below the level for our flood gages and are reading zero water level. When we had the rain last Saturday, there were watersheds so low that it took close to 4 hours to even see a small response on portions of Great Seneca Creek and Cabin John Branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Interesting @MN Transplant. We'll see how accurate this is for the weekend. Maybe another tool in the kit for future events? Right now they are only going to be running this during the Spring Experiment period (mostly May), but it is forward-looking towards what we will see in the future with modeling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 WB 12Z 3K NAM...widespread much needed rain for Friday still on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: 2" of rain over 3-4 days should be nice, even if the weekend won't be. Agree also. I'm in a bit of a micro-climate where higher elevations from my W around to my NE result in a "shadow" effect where lines and clusters of spring/summer thunderstorms frequently miss or split around. I need to cash in on this synoptic rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 12z GFS keeps up the big totals area-wide through Monday. Saturday looking like a serviceable weekend day, sandwiched between decent rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, mattie g said: 12z GFS keeps up the big totals area-wide through Monday. Saturday looking like a serviceable weekend day, sandwiched between decent rains. GGEM and Icon too. We’ll see what the euro does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 GEM doubles rainfall expectations for Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM and Icon too. We’ll see what the euro does. Euro is juicy AF. Nice 4.5-5” lolli IMBY. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM and Icon too. We’ll see what the euro does. Euro drops 2" IMBY through about 03z with an additional 2.25" through about midnight Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is juicy AF. Nice 4.5-5” lolli IMBY. Things are shaping up for a pretty decent beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Things are shaping up for a pretty decent beat down. Seems that way. There was some headfaking with whether the Sunday-Monday storm would stay more OTS, but looks like not. Long duration should help this soak in and not just run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 12z Euro has a legit comma head and almost like a trowel feature over I-95 at 00z Friday. PWATS approaching 1.75". Very Nino-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 WB 12Z EURO through the weekend....heading to upper Michigan...:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Ah, the usual Maryland spring- where every weekend rains to ruin my plans, and midweek (when I work) is beautiful and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 If the 12z Euro is to be believed, some parts of the I-95 corridor could push 4" to 5" of rain. By the time Monday morning rolls around. @usedtobe always said it takes a flood to break a drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Is Saturday still looking rainy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Is Saturday still looking rainy? I've been watching that as we have a big family event Saturday -- it's looking more and more like we get a break in the rain during the day, and maybe if we're lucky we'll have a few peeks of sun. Temps look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Is Saturday still looking rainy? 18z Sat to 00z Sunday look fairly rain free, but clouds might hang tough up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 18z 3km NAM is a beatdown on Friday. @mappy...it's looking like Saturday should clear up before the rains come back for Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 32 minutes ago, mattie g said: 18z 3km NAM is a beatdown on Friday. @mappy...it's looking like Saturday should clear up before the rains come back for Sunday-Monday. Got a screencap for those who are mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: I've been watching that as we have a big family event Saturday -- it's looking more and more like we get a break in the rain during the day, and maybe if we're lucky we'll have a few peeks of sun. Temps look nice 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Sat to 00z Sunday look fairly rain free, but clouds might hang tough up your way. 4 hours ago, mattie g said: 18z 3km NAM is a beatdown on Friday. @mappy...it's looking like Saturday should clear up before the rains come back for Sunday-Monday. Thanks all. Kid has an outdoor dance thing from 12-3, hoping it stays dry enough that the event isn’t cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 00z HRRR is a beaut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Short term guidance starting to highlight some beefier totals along the US 29 corridor, somewhere between Laurel and Fairfax. Wonder if there's some kind of low level convergence being picked up by the HRRR/NAM family? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Short term guidance starting to highlight some beefier totals along the US 29 corridor, somewhere between Laurel and Fairfax. Wonder if there's some kind of low level convergence being picked up by the HRRR/NAM family? Yeah, the big totals are coming from some training that goes on in the afternoon on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, the big totals are coming from some training that goes on in the afternoon on the HRRR. I'll bet that winds up verifying further north and east than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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