Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 now you're pickin' sorry.. the snowiest ones look best, clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 10-12 of the indiv members have not super look for MA. case where a few big (at least one or two sorta funny looking) ones really help the mean... I count 10 that bring at least .25-.50 into the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that 540 line on the RGEM is so much further NW, I gotta' believe its coming far enough west to hit DCA/BWI sorry, but link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z RGEM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 good sign that the GFS now has some support. Is it me or are these models like putting a snow shield around DC...i keep seeing snow just 50 miles south of us that never seems to budge north. This is a good run. Plenty of time to go. This may not be resolved for another 24 hours I think with such spread so close to the storm's start that nowcasting is going to be much more important than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM a hit for BWI not huge at .2", but looks like more to fall after 48 hrs baby steps and still more time to come further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 36 hour RGEM is farther (south)west and stronger (998 MB) than it's 12z run when it was at 1002 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I count 10 that bring at least .25-.50 into the area... i included a couple that give us OK qpf but have the main shield well east since they don't look right. some of the big hits look funny too but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the 00Z GFS goes out to sea I'm gonna lose it...please lets get a consensus already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 4DVAR and Canadian have caved to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why is that h5 low in SC/NC still but the SLP is already gone towards SNE at 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 sorry, but link? I was comparing the old map of 48 hrs (now updated) to the new one at 24 hrs can't do it now because the 48 hr map has now updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS will likely come east a bit tonight breaking the hearts of again of DC people.. See my previous post, just to make things harder it probably will...honestly though with this sudden shift west now by even the first non american model in the RGEM I'd be starting to worry about it showing dry slotting concerns for E LI, SE CT, RI, SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The RGEM at 48 only brings good precip to the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and...that is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is definitely better for everyone. Small change, but enough to give pause. GGEM might cave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why is that h5 low in SC/NC still but the SLP is already gone towards SNE at 48? that's why I posted I believe there would be more to come on the RGEM or, the depiction is wrong and the SLP would be further WSW to better match the 5H closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 sorry, but link? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The RGEM at 48 only brings good precip to the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay and...that is that. I know you are a "taken verbatim" model reader, but the Canadian models have been well OTS lately. This is a fairly big move by the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Question for the NCEP guys or anyone who might know.....did they get the winter storm recon data into this run? Doesn't look like it: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/realtime/nam/t00z/nam.012.gif I thought the flights were scheduled for overnight tonight, might make the 12Z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd throw out watches for Anyone SE of I95 now. And I'd extened them up 50 miles NW of it in New England. Even if it misses odds of a hit have gone way up since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know you are a "taken verbatim" model reader, but the Canadian models have been well OTS lately. This is a fairly big move by the RGEM. It is not stacked, the 700 mb and 500 mb lows are hardly in proximity with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM is definitely better for everyone. Small change, but enough to give pause. GGEM might cave... GGEM should not be used inside 48 hours. it should not even be accessed. it has already caved.....the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd throw out watches for Anyone SE of I95 now. And I'd extened them up 50 miles NW of it in New England. Even if it misses odds of a hit have gone way up since noon. I was thinking the same thing to an extent but they'd have to wait on the GFS, if it doesn't change then consider it....alot of people are awake later tonight than they would be normally so they might get the word before going to bed, it would help in the coastal MA region but I'd probably hold off still for the entire Upton and Taunton FAs...maybe Mt. Holly in their SE most zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM should not be used inside 48 hours. it should not even be accessed. it has already caved.....the RGEM. OK, thanks. I assume that because you are from Canada you would know... I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why is that h5 low in SC/NC still but the SLP is already gone towards SNE at 48? The trough stays positive too long. We need the low right on the coast basically around nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why is that h5 low in SC/NC still but the SLP is already gone towards SNE at 48? Its all about the best PVA and height falls...which are well northeast of the center of the 5h low...you can see that kink out to the east where all the vorticity is...it looks somewhat like the NAM...if you follow the NAM post-48, it closes that area off to form a new 5h low. The sfc low will naturally follow the best area of WAA and PVA....and the upper levels at that point are essentially going totally nuts in that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was thinking the same thing to an extent but they'd have to wait on the GFS, if it doesn't change then consider it....alot of people are awake later tonight than they would be normally so they might get the word before going to bed, it would help in the coastal MA region but I'd probably hold off still for the entire Upton and Taunton FAs...maybe Mt. Holly in their SE most zones. AKQ still has nothing up at all. SE VA should be a hit it looks like. Start time will be tomorrow afternoon... I guess waiting for the GFS and other models is prudent though. Correction: They have a watch up in their NE NC counties to match with RAH I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK, thanks. I assume that because you are from Canada you would know... I guess. yes you can see that thread about the NAM being 'too good' for further details. but yeah, GGEM is for outside 48 hours, therefore those in new england would want to see its trend. but really, at this point its irrelevant because the much higher resolution RGEM upon which forecast grids are built in Canada, has already caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM precip map at 48 hours says snows continue to fall after 48 hours in the MA along I95 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at the 00z gfs from last night...thats really when the west trend restarted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.