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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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good sign that the GFS now has some support. Is it me or are these models like putting a snow shield around DC...i keep seeing snow just 50 miles south of us that never seems to budge north. This is a good run. Plenty of time to go. This may not be resolved for another 24 hours

I think with such spread so close to the storm's start that nowcasting is going to be much more important than usual.

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I count 10 that bring at least .25-.50 into the area...

i included a couple that give us OK qpf but have the main shield well east since they don't look right. some of the big hits look funny too but who knows.

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GFS will likely come east a bit tonight breaking the hearts of again of DC people..

See my previous post, just to make things harder it probably will...honestly though with this sudden shift west now by even the first non american model in the RGEM I'd be starting to worry about it showing dry slotting concerns for E LI, SE CT, RI, SE MA

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I'd throw out watches for Anyone SE of I95 now. And I'd extened them up 50 miles NW of it in New England. Even if it misses odds of a hit have gone way up since noon.

I was thinking the same thing to an extent but they'd have to wait on the GFS, if it doesn't change then consider it....alot of people are awake later tonight than they would be normally so they might get the word before going to bed, it would help in the coastal MA region but I'd probably hold off still for the entire Upton and Taunton FAs...maybe Mt. Holly in their SE most zones.

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Why is that h5 low in SC/NC still but the SLP is already gone towards SNE at 48?

Its all about the best PVA and height falls...which are well northeast of the center of the 5h low...you can see that kink out to the east where all the vorticity is...it looks somewhat like the NAM...if you follow the NAM post-48, it closes that area off to form a new 5h low.

The sfc low will naturally follow the best area of WAA and PVA....and the upper levels at that point are essentially going totally nuts in that spot.

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I was thinking the same thing to an extent but they'd have to wait on the GFS, if it doesn't change then consider it....alot of people are awake later tonight than they would be normally so they might get the word before going to bed, it would help in the coastal MA region but I'd probably hold off still for the entire Upton and Taunton FAs...maybe Mt. Holly in their SE most zones.

AKQ still has nothing up at all. SE VA should be a hit it looks like. Start time will be tomorrow afternoon... I guess waiting for the GFS and other models is prudent though.

Correction: They have a watch up in their NE NC counties to match with RAH I guess.

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OK, thanks. I assume that because you are from Canada you would know... I guess.

yes you can see that thread about the NAM being 'too good' for further details.

but yeah, GGEM is for outside 48 hours, therefore those in new england would want to see its trend.

but really, at this point its irrelevant because the much higher resolution RGEM upon which forecast grids are built in Canada, has already caved.

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