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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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TBH I dont know why people are getting so disappointed.. it moved 100 or so miles to the west with the precip and the vort looks better than 18z which was the run that alot of people were questioning to be under the influence of the gfs super juice... it seems that this run, if anything again gives more crecedence to the trend started @ 12z today.. Lets see what gfs and euro say but for now Id say this nam run is good.

i dont get it either...this is a good run to me. look at 12z then 18z and now the 0z.....another 75 miles or so and we are getting plowable snow to DC

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At the upper levels the NAM seems like it would deliver a GFS-like hit, but the surface doesn't reflect that. I still think the overall setup is not as good as it was a few days ago, which is why we are seeing upper air improvements that don't matter much at the surface. South of NYC still needs help. Would be nice to see GGEM/UKMET/Euro jump on board, but frankly I doubt they will.

It looks close at first glance, but NAM and GFS still did have notable differences. If you look at the strongest vort max on NAM at 42 hrs, it is way down off the SC coast, while the 18z GFS at the same time had the parent vort max coming up toward the Chesapeake Bay. That's really what leads to the NAM being farther east, though the low on the NAM should be more consolidated than what it shows IMO.

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ok, didnt know that. i mean it is a good signal either way but sref has surely let me down personally before.. recently even.

Well the Euro still leads in that department by a considerable margin, but its not as if the SREF is bad.

The more current trends of the SREF (we've seen two runs of them since the 12z Euro) might give it as much if not more weight than the 12z Euro solution. Its obviously difficult to say, but I think some of these foreign model solutions tonight should really tell us what the deal is.

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post-3403-0-30695100-1293245431.jpg

I dont know how many times i've seen this error on the NAM. because of the initial vorticity being well east, that sets up the boundary for the low and hence the east solution.... it also creates a sort of reverse eddy over the Mid Atl which explains the lack of precip.

one thing to note, we're starting to get in to the range of the ARW/NMM....might want to give them a look at 00Z tonight... IIRC they did pretty well with the big events last year, but they tend to be even worse with those convective errors.... little vorticity maxes all over the place.

also, and this may be the lack of my physics knowledge, but how does a 150 KT jet develop NE of new england from almost nothing in 6 hours?

nam_300_042m.gif

nam_300_048m.gif

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It looks close at first glance, but NAM and GFS still did have notable differences. If you look at the strongest vort max on NAM at 42 hrs, it is way down off the SC coast, while the 18z GFS at the same time had the parent vort max coming up toward the Chesapeake Bay. That's really what leads to the NAM being farther east, though the low on the NAM should be more consolidated than what it shows IMO.

NAM continues to hold onto the larger, broader cut-off 5H Low vs. the smaller and round/oval one of the GFS and SREF's

I'm certain that has something to do with it too

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It looks close at first glance, but NAM and GFS still did have notable differences. If you look at the strongest vort max on NAM at 42 hrs, it is way down off the SC coast, while the 18z GFS at the same time had the parent vort max coming up toward the Chesapeake Bay. That's really what leads to the NAM being farther east, though the low on the NAM should be more consolidated than what it shows IMO.

best upper level divergence at 300mb does not show up on the NAM until 48 hours out over NJ coast, NYC and New England... at 54 the 500mb low closes and boom for NE. For a better hit, further south, these dynamics need to occur a frame sooner. The 18-24 hour time frame from now should be telling

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Its obviously difficult to say, but I think some of these foreign model solutions tonight should really tell us what the deal is.

agree, and hope lol. feel like that's been the story for a while now tho!

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i've seen the sref shift around plenty in this range.. might be that the op nam is an outlier in that set i guess... i mean it looks to be at least. i like sref much more to fine tune a forecast rather than lead one or butress an outlier with. like the euro blizz i was tempted to throw out the first instance of the bullish gfs, but it is a little more believable now and would be even moreso at 0z if it holds. but if that happens... i assume the other globals will jump on as well? we can't stay with the euro well east and the gfs a mecs+ till showtime can we?

I don't see how. I can't remember a time that really happened. I honestly suspect the GFS will go east a little. NYC is probably good for 5-7, PHL 3 or so. The NAM and other globals have been adamant for several cycles about an off-shore track that misses most south of SNE.

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best upper level divergence at 300mb does not show up on the NAM until 48 hours out over NJ coast, NYC and New England... at 54 the 500mb low closes and boom for NE. For a better hit, further south, these dynamics need to occur a frame sooner. The 18-24 hour time frame from now should be telling

Yeah I think even factoring in that the NAM is too strung out with the low, things at the upper levels don't look ideal until it is a little too far north. But, it sure wouldn't take much of a shift.

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Yeah I think even factoring in that the NAM is too strung out with the low, things at the upper levels don't look ideal until it is a little too far north. But, it sure wouldn't take much of a shift.

Agreed, although I dont necessarily see it, if we can get some stronger cyclogenesis over the SE states to deepen the low faster, get a bit more ridging over the east and that vort at 500 can swing down sooner from IO, Wi (refering to 24-30 hrs out), etc we could be in business

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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...18Z GFS/15 SREF TRYING TO BRING THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COASTSUN AFTN. AS MENTIONED ERLR HV INCRSD THE POPS IN THE ERN PART OFTHE AREA IN RESPONSE BUT AM SPENDING XMAS EVE WAITING FOR THE 00ZNAM OUTPUT TO COME IN. THIS WL GIVE US GRTR CONFIDENCE. JUST F.T.R. -IF THE CLOSER-TO-CST SCENARIO PLAYS OUT THIS STORM STILL HAS LTLIN COMMON W/ LAST WINTER`S POWERHOUSE STORMS. THIS LOW WL MOVE NEFAIRLY QUICKLY...AND W/ A STRNG JET ON THE E SIDE IT LOOKS TO BEHEADING OFF TO ERN NEW ENGLAND OR ATLC CANADA PRETTY QUICKLY.

This is for Central MD.

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RGEM at 36 is west it looks

good sign that the GFS now has some support. Is it me or are these models like putting a snow shield around DC...i keep seeing snow just 50 miles south of us that never seems to budge north. This is a good run. Plenty of time to go. This may not be resolved for another 24 hours

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