mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cape Cod gets obliterated. I knew they should have gone with the wind turbines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 TBH I dont know why people are getting so disappointed.. it moved 100 or so miles to the west with the precip and the vort looks better than 18z which was the run that alot of people were questioning to be under the influence of the gfs super juice... it seems that this run, if anything again gives more crecedence to the trend started @ 12z today.. Lets see what gfs and euro say but for now Id say this nam run is good. i dont get it either...this is a good run to me. look at 12z then 18z and now the 0z.....another 75 miles or so and we are getting plowable snow to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Question for the NCEP guys or anyone who might know.....did they get the winter storm recon data into this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At the upper levels the NAM seems like it would deliver a GFS-like hit, but the surface doesn't reflect that. I still think the overall setup is not as good as it was a few days ago, which is why we are seeing upper air improvements that don't matter much at the surface. South of NYC still needs help. Would be nice to see GGEM/UKMET/Euro jump on board, but frankly I doubt they will. It looks close at first glance, but NAM and GFS still did have notable differences. If you look at the strongest vort max on NAM at 42 hrs, it is way down off the SC coast, while the 18z GFS at the same time had the parent vort max coming up toward the Chesapeake Bay. That's really what leads to the NAM being farther east, though the low on the NAM should be more consolidated than what it shows IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Per Nam, BOS about to get wiped off the map Yup, I'm 30 miles south of BOS and the NAM just wiped my ass with about 30" of fake snow. Not sniffing the glue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ok, didnt know that. i mean it is a good signal either way but sref has surely let me down personally before.. recently even. Well the Euro still leads in that department by a considerable margin, but its not as if the SREF is bad. The more current trends of the SREF (we've seen two runs of them since the 12z Euro) might give it as much if not more weight than the 12z Euro solution. Its obviously difficult to say, but I think some of these foreign model solutions tonight should really tell us what the deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I dont know how many times i've seen this error on the NAM. because of the initial vorticity being well east, that sets up the boundary for the low and hence the east solution.... it also creates a sort of reverse eddy over the Mid Atl which explains the lack of precip. one thing to note, we're starting to get in to the range of the ARW/NMM....might want to give them a look at 00Z tonight... IIRC they did pretty well with the big events last year, but they tend to be even worse with those convective errors.... little vorticity maxes all over the place. also, and this may be the lack of my physics knowledge, but how does a 150 KT jet develop NE of new england from almost nothing in 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It looks close at first glance, but NAM and GFS still did have notable differences. If you look at the strongest vort max on NAM at 42 hrs, it is way down off the SC coast, while the 18z GFS at the same time had the parent vort max coming up toward the Chesapeake Bay. That's really what leads to the NAM being farther east, though the low on the NAM should be more consolidated than what it shows IMO. NAM continues to hold onto the larger, broader cut-off 5H Low vs. the smaller and round/oval one of the GFS and SREF's I'm certain that has something to do with it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A visual of the 'well west' SREFs at 21z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Surprised DT's not back. Would love to get his thoughts on the current runs. Hopefully he's with his family and not strung up by the jackasses on his webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A question for the Meteorologists. Could it possibly be that the higher resolution models are the ones having problems with this storm and the lower resolution of the GFS is actually helping it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It looks close at first glance, but NAM and GFS still did have notable differences. If you look at the strongest vort max on NAM at 42 hrs, it is way down off the SC coast, while the 18z GFS at the same time had the parent vort max coming up toward the Chesapeake Bay. That's really what leads to the NAM being farther east, though the low on the NAM should be more consolidated than what it shows IMO. best upper level divergence at 300mb does not show up on the NAM until 48 hours out over NJ coast, NYC and New England... at 54 the 500mb low closes and boom for NE. For a better hit, further south, these dynamics need to occur a frame sooner. The 18-24 hour time frame from now should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its obviously difficult to say, but I think some of these foreign model solutions tonight should really tell us what the deal is. agree, and hope lol. feel like that's been the story for a while now tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z RGEM at 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good sign. Winter weather watches expanded westward in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i've seen the sref shift around plenty in this range.. might be that the op nam is an outlier in that set i guess... i mean it looks to be at least. i like sref much more to fine tune a forecast rather than lead one or butress an outlier with. like the euro blizz i was tempted to throw out the first instance of the bullish gfs, but it is a little more believable now and would be even moreso at 0z if it holds. but if that happens... i assume the other globals will jump on as well? we can't stay with the euro well east and the gfs a mecs+ till showtime can we? I don't see how. I can't remember a time that really happened. I honestly suspect the GFS will go east a little. NYC is probably good for 5-7, PHL 3 or so. The NAM and other globals have been adamant for several cycles about an off-shore track that misses most south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 best upper level divergence at 300mb does not show up on the NAM until 48 hours out over NJ coast, NYC and New England... at 54 the 500mb low closes and boom for NE. For a better hit, further south, these dynamics need to occur a frame sooner. The 18-24 hour time frame from now should be telling Yeah I think even factoring in that the NAM is too strung out with the low, things at the upper levels don't look ideal until it is a little too far north. But, it sure wouldn't take much of a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I think even factoring in that the NAM is too strung out with the low, things at the upper levels don't look ideal until it is a little too far north. But, it sure wouldn't take much of a shift. Agreed, although I dont necessarily see it, if we can get some stronger cyclogenesis over the SE states to deepen the low faster, get a bit more ridging over the east and that vort at 500 can swing down sooner from IO, Wi (refering to 24-30 hrs out), etc we could be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...18Z GFS/15 SREF TRYING TO BRING THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE COASTSUN AFTN. AS MENTIONED ERLR HV INCRSD THE POPS IN THE ERN PART OFTHE AREA IN RESPONSE BUT AM SPENDING XMAS EVE WAITING FOR THE 00ZNAM OUTPUT TO COME IN. THIS WL GIVE US GRTR CONFIDENCE. JUST F.T.R. -IF THE CLOSER-TO-CST SCENARIO PLAYS OUT THIS STORM STILL HAS LTLIN COMMON W/ LAST WINTER`S POWERHOUSE STORMS. THIS LOW WL MOVE NEFAIRLY QUICKLY...AND W/ A STRNG JET ON THE E SIDE IT LOOKS TO BEHEADING OFF TO ERN NEW ENGLAND OR ATLC CANADA PRETTY QUICKLY. This is for Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres the 21z sref indiv qpf maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thats a ton of spread for so close to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like the location of that SLP in the Gulf on the RGEM at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z RGEM at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM at 36 is west it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 10-12 of the indiv members have not super look for MA. case where a few big (at least one or two sorta funny looking) ones really help the mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 BIg west move by the RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that 540 line on the RGEM is so much further NW, I gotta' believe its coming far enough west to hit DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM at 36 is west it looks good sign that the GFS now has some support. Is it me or are these models like putting a snow shield around DC...i keep seeing snow just 50 miles south of us that never seems to budge north. This is a good run. Plenty of time to go. This may not be resolved for another 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 10-12 of the indiv members have not super look for MA. case where a few big (at least one or two sorta funny looking) ones really help the mean... now you're pickin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM at 36 is west it looks stil not great for us i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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