DJ Amenzo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a historic turn. Does anyone realize whats happening here yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that is just plain rude I'd be happy with this Lot of qpf through 60hrs.... I won't start to believe anything though until the gfs is out and I read a model diagnostics discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 probably part of it.. the trough is really broad and complex. it takes a while to get it into the right position to move the thing north with authority. Was thinking the same thing. Even earlier on, with the closed low from about NY to TN/AL, I was thinking it probably wouldn't quite work...broad and slanted SW-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS and its ensmbles give BWI .75"+/- SREF's do the same NAM says .01 coup time for NAM or bust gfs is an outlier tho.. sref are cool to look at yeah. if the gfs does hold we stil need the euro to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where's the precipitation? LOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cape Cod gets obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thats quite a move in the right direction....i mean compare this to 12z. well west and a move towards GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs is an outlier tho.. sref are cool to look at yeah. if the gfs does hold we stil need the euro to budge. The GFS won't fail at this range, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 most disappointing run since yesterday's 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF mean looks Awsome. FOLKS, THE BEAST HAS RETURNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 most disappointing run since yesterday's 12Z Euro. not if youre in the coastal northeast from nj on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs is an outlier tho.. sref are cool to look at yeah. if the gfs does hold we stil need the euro to budge. If GFS stays well west along with SREFs, that is enough to get most folks honking at this range. At 00Z one side surely has to break. The Euro has already seen a big storm in this thing, so perhaps seeing it go back would not be that "strange." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS won't fail at this range, believe me. we'll see i guess.. usually not wise to run with the most bullish scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS won't fail at this range, believe me. want to be quoted on that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 most disappointing run since yesterday's 12Z Euro. really? maybe the GFS goes back east....but if it doesnt then maybe the NAM needs another run for a further west correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 If GFS stays well west along with SREFs, that is enough to get most folks honking at this range. At 00Z one side surely has to break. The Euro has already seen a big storm in this thing, so perhaps seeing it go back would not be that "strange." Agree. The 00z RGEM should be out shortly.. so hopefully we will get an inkling of help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If GFS stays well west along with SREFs, that is enough to get most folks honking at this range. At 00Z one side surely has to break. The Euro has already seen a big storm in this thing, so perhaps seeing it go back would not be that "strange." Sorry for the noob question but do the srefs also use gfs boundary conditions like the nam? I am just wondering if this whole west trend is not related to the initialization problems noted by the HPC model diagnostic discussion? The weenie in me hopes its not but the scientist in me has to ask if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If GFS stays well west along with SREFs, that is enough to get most folks honking at this range. At 00Z one side surely has to break. The Euro has already seen a big storm in this thing, so perhaps seeing it go back would not be that "strange." i've seen the sref shift around plenty in this range.. might be that the op nam is an outlier in that set i guess... i mean it looks to be at least. i like sref much more to fine tune a forecast rather than lead one or butress an outlier with. like the euro blizz i was tempted to throw out the first instance of the bullish gfs, but it is a little more believable now and would be even moreso at 0z if it holds. but if that happens... i assume the other globals will jump on as well? we can't stay with the euro well east and the gfs a mecs+ till showtime can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 really? maybe the GFS goes back east....but if it doesnt then maybe the NAM needs another run for a further west correction. It's running out of time to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where's the precipitation? LOL? Your circle is not where the ideal PVA is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If GFS stays well west along with SREFs, that is enough to get most folks honking at this range. At 00Z one side surely has to break. The Euro has already seen a big storm in this thing, so perhaps seeing it go back would not be that "strange." Agree 100% At this point, the NAM is a strong signal and if the GFS stays the course, I'd start talking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We wont know for sure until the phasing occurs which is 00z tomorrow. 12z will give us a good idea but will not pin exactly the track and precip shield. Alot of nowcasting will need to take place because so much can go right or wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's running out of time to get its act together. it just shifted hundreds of miles in 12 hours, so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 really? maybe the GFS goes back east....but if it doesnt then maybe the NAM needs another run for a further west correction. TBH I dont know why people are getting so disappointed.. it moved 100 or so miles to the west with the precip and the vort looks better than 18z which was the run that alot of people were questioning to be under the influence of the gfs super juice... it seems that this run, if anything again gives more crecedence to the trend started @ 12z today.. Lets see what gfs and euro say but for now Id say this nam run is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At the upper levels the NAM seems like it would deliver a GFS-like hit, but the surface doesn't reflect that. I still think the overall setup is not as good as it was a few days ago, which is why we are seeing upper air improvements that don't matter much at the surface. South of NYC still needs help. Would be nice to see GGEM/UKMET/Euro jump on board, but frankly I doubt they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Agree 100% At this point, the NAM is a strong signal and if the GFS stays the course, I'd start talking it up. RGEM is on the way out. Would be helpful it leaned toward the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i've seen the sref shift around plenty in this range.. might be that the op nam is an outlier in that set i guess... i mean it looks to be at least. i like sref much more to fine tune a forecast rather than lead one or butress an outlier with. like the euro blizz i was tempted to throw out the first instance of the bullish gfs, but it is a little more believable now and would be even moreso at 0z if it holds. but if that happens... i assume the other globals will jump on as well? we can't stay with the euro well east and the gfs a mecs+ till showtime can we? The SREF scores for qpf at this time range are 2nd only to the ECMWF...so there's an obvious battle going on. SREFs can be pretty good inside of 60 hours...they used to be a lot worse, but they were upgrade around a year ago and have been scoring very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so the NAM with it's well know exaggerated precip totals gives DC and Balto zilch. Telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a historic turn. Does anyone realize whats happening here yet? ????? No clue. What are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The SREF scores for qpf at this time range are 2nd only to the ECMWF...so there's an obvious battle going on. SREFs can be pretty good inside of 60 hours...they used to be a lot worse, but they were upgrade around a year ago and have been scoring very well. ok, didnt know that. i mean it is a good signal either way but sref has surely let me down personally before.. recently even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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