Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow! But how trustworthy is the RSM? how often do you see it mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the mid-Atlantic (VA/MD/DC in particular) everything looked so good and well set-up until...42h at the surface. You really cannot hope for much more at the upper levels, but the low swings wide right. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow! But how trustworthy is the RSM? im buying it. we make alot of jokes about Jan 25,2000 but this is actually the closest we have come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shame the NAM refuses to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 500 closed low just simply too broad and elongated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hrs 36-42 look a bit odd IMHO. If there are 2 centers to begin with, and one gets out, shouldn't there be some sort of dominance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shame the NAM refuses to budge. For you...for Philly north it's a very drastic change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM does look a little west - better sim. radar at hr. 48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the SREF's are insane with qpf at BWI, at least .75" and the NAM is still too far east that's nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Per Nam, BOS about to get wiped off the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shame the NAM refuses to budge. the NAM isnt very accurate past 24 hours. Ive seen alot of changs happen with the NAM between 24-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the mid-Atlantic (VA/MD/DC in particular) everything looked so good and well set-up until...42h at the surface. You really cannot hope for much more at the upper levels, but the low swings wide right. Hmmm. I wouldn't worry about. The NAM continues to trend towards the GFS surface depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 500 closed low just simply too broad and elongated? probably part of it.. the trough is really broad and complex. it takes a while to get it into the right position to move the thing north with authority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ugly convective feedback issues. Funny that there are all the vorticity maximums over the east coast ... and even Omegas over eastern PA and no precip at 48. This run is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 700mb looks okay, supports precip further west. Even dc should see 4" from a closed low in that position. Using the 700mb trogh axis rule your gonna se at least some snow back from Harrisburgh to Binghamton. Important thing= West Trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 probably part of it.. the trough is really broad and complex. it takes a while to get it into the right position to move the thing north with authority. It also doesn't help that the low is strung out http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For you...for Philly north it's a very drastic change. agreed. its def west of 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the mid-Atlantic (VA/MD/DC in particular) everything looked so good and well set-up until...42h at the surface. You really cannot hope for much more at the upper levels, but the low swings wide right. Hmmm. The track of the low follows along where the best WAA and PVA aloft lie. The upper vort max needs to shift farther north and west to support a more NW shift of the sfc low. This run did shift in that regard, but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM does look a little west - better sim. radar at hr. 48: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_048l.gif Given his location, I'm sure most knew that he was talking about down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that is just plain rude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK, I can't believe what the NAM is doing at 42 hours that seems crazy Dry as a bleached bone in the desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the SREF's are insane with qpf at BWI, at least .75" and the NAM is still too far east that's nuts sref definitely not always a predictor for the nam. seems to work out more than 50% of the time but not here i guess. the nam solution surface solution is probably not terribly meaningful other than it keeps our area in the screw zone as we have been on it and the euro for some time now. one question i have with it is it seems like it wants to keep the surface low elongated as well which might cause some issues on the maps. does that elongation seem likely with a bomb? 500 definitely close enough etc.. not quite there but the nam is not super stellar with coastals in my recollection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is still trending along the lines of the GFS. It's just taking its sweet time. Only one more jog to the west is needed for NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Given his location, I'm sure most knew that he was talking about down here. Per tombo, def. improved for Philly and NYC.. wouldn't take much to get DC into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just looking at the 00z Nam vs 12/18z it's much similar to the 18z NAM. To me, this seems as if the dismissal of the 12/18z GFS/NAM might be premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One thing caught my eye, the low is super elongated, yet it bombs before becoming more elongated. That makes absolutely no sense...or does it? I'd think there would be dominance in one of them, if the 1st low got awayn (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 sref definitely not always a predictor for the nam. seems to work out more than 50% of the time but not here i guess. the nam solution surface solution is probably not terribly meaningful other than it keeps our area in the screw zone as we have been on it and the euro for some time now. one question i have with it is it seems like it wants to keep the surface low elongated as well which might cause some issues on the maps. does that elongation seem likely with a bomb? 500 definitely close enough etc.. not quite there but the nam is not super stellar with coastals in my recollection. IMO you are right. I'm not sure it would come far enough west yet anyway, but I agree the low probably shouldn't be this strung out given the strong upper level support. It really wouldn't take much for your area to be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 By 54, it magically makes precip over BWI/DCA ... even though the upper support is approaching new england... Goofy NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like balt/dc do eke out .01 or so from 48 to 54!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like balt/dc do eke out .01 or so from 48 to 54!! GFS and its ensmbles give BWI .75"+/- SREF's do the same NAM says .01 coup time for NAM or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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