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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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For the mid-Atlantic (VA/MD/DC in particular) everything looked so good and well set-up until...42h at the surface. You really cannot hope for much more at the upper levels, but the low swings wide right. Hmmm.

I wouldn't worry about. The NAM continues to trend towards the GFS surface depiction.

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Is the 500 closed low just simply too broad and elongated?

probably part of it.. the trough is really broad and complex. it takes a while to get it into the right position to move the thing north with authority.

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For the mid-Atlantic (VA/MD/DC in particular) everything looked so good and well set-up until...42h at the surface. You really cannot hope for much more at the upper levels, but the low swings wide right. Hmmm.

The track of the low follows along where the best WAA and PVA aloft lie. The upper vort max needs to shift farther north and west to support a more NW shift of the sfc low. This run did shift in that regard, but not enough.

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the SREF's are insane with qpf at BWI, at least .75" and the NAM is still too far east

that's nuts

sref definitely not always a predictor for the nam. seems to work out more than 50% of the time but not here i guess. ;)

the nam solution surface solution is probably not terribly meaningful other than it keeps our area in the screw zone as we have been on it and the euro for some time now. one question i have with it is it seems like it wants to keep the surface low elongated as well which might cause some issues on the maps. does that elongation seem likely with a bomb? 500 definitely close enough etc.. not quite there but the nam is not super stellar with coastals in my recollection.

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sref definitely not always a predictor for the nam. seems to work out more than 50% of the time but not here i guess. ;)

the nam solution surface solution is probably not terribly meaningful other than it keeps our area in the screw zone as we have been on it and the euro for some time now. one question i have with it is it seems like it wants to keep the surface low elongated as well which might cause some issues on the maps. does that elongation seem likely with a bomb? 500 definitely close enough etc.. not quite there but the nam is not super stellar with coastals in my recollection.

IMO you are right. I'm not sure it would come far enough west yet anyway, but I agree the low probably shouldn't be this strung out given the strong upper level support. It really wouldn't take much for your area to be in business.

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