Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wonder what kma has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apologies in advance if this is an overly noob-ish question, but is there any risk that this thing moves so far west that we start having mixing issues in some locations? I'm sure that's a possibility, albeit remote, for some of the immediate coastal areas. But assuming by your name that you're anywhere near DC, pretty much no chance IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apologies in advance if this is an overly noob-ish question, but is there any risk that this thing moves so far west that we start having mixing issues in some locations? If you're in dc you will most likely be fine. The Delmarva, coastal nj, long island and obviously new England could have issues. For you though it would take another really big shift for any issues I would think... Though with the way this has gone who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 greatest to least lime green 1-1.25 lgt black .75-1 lgt blue .5-.75 green .25-.5 lgt green .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 they dont want to make a mistake. Their being very cautious!! They dont want people to go nuts in the cent md area, Which they're going to anyway.!!! That must have been written before the 0z EURO came out-- they made no mention of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apologies in advance if this is an overly noob-ish question, but is there any risk that this thing moves so far west that we start having mixing issues in some locations? Yes....this is a volatile setup....there are 3 possibilities that still remain...regardless of the guidance the trough is still placed far east for your classic East Coast setup...this means the system could fail to negative tilt or bomb resulting in a light event for NYC/LI/NJ and a non-event for BWI/DC and even PHI....the middle ground is something very close to what most of the models are currently showing...the other end is of course this thing really gets going and goes more west, I'd think a track over LI remains a possibility but to me scenario one that I describe is more likely than that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At this point I'm sure they've got some concerns about the system possibly coming even further west...I don't think it will happen but that argument has to be given some merit...1/25/00 came west of where even the models had it the night before when they all caught on. Its going to be almost impossible for it to come even further west than the 00z GFS had it...the longwave setup just wont allow it...if it tries to amplify more, we'll see something more like an earlier Euro solution a few days ago where it cuts off....the ridge to the west will make it "dig its own grave" if it tries to amplify. It will cutoff and spin for a bit before the longwave trough lifts northeast. That's what we saw when it was giving VA like 30" of snow on some of those Euro runs. But I think the chances for rain on I-95 are pretty much zero in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its going to be almost impossible for it to come even further west than the 00z GFS had it...the longwave setup just wont allow it...if it tries to amplify more, we'll see something more like an earlier Euro solution a few days ago where it cuts off....the ridge to the west will make it "dig its own grave" if it tries to amplify. It will cutoff and spin for a bit before the longwave trough lifts northeast. That's what we saw when it was giving VA like 30" of snow on some of those Euro runs. But I think the chances for rain on I-95 are pretty much zero in this. I agree on the rain part, sleet mixing maybe, dryslotting would be the greater threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so which model gets the nod?? Euro obviously sniffing it first and then bailing and then GFS saying no you were right the first time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 While DT kind of gave up...Jb never did(because he never does) but this looks like a huge win for JB. Maybe his biggest win ever He wrote something to the fact of he had never seen a 500 low of that magnitude take the track it was taking and not dump heavy snow somewhere on the East Coast EXCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS....it made sense to me but I still thought yesterday this was not going to happen for anyone south of 38-40N and NYC/western LI would see 2-3 inches at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I agree on the rain part, sleet mixing maybe, dryslotting would be the greater threat. it would be hilarious if I saw sleet mixing in here while interior NJ jackpotted lol. Most of our local forecasts are already talking about a foot of snow with high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I agree on the rain part, sleet mixing maybe, dryslotting would be the greater threat. I don't think that would be a huge issue either...as it digs like a backhoe, the CCB would stay right over the M.A. I could be wrong, but it just doesn't make sense for a dryslot to penetrate that far NW because it has nothing to move it there. The 5h pattern develops a new low on the E side of the trough because the current trough just keeps digging and has nowhere to go. This is about as far west as you can see this go...if it digs more, it gives DCA-PHL a HECS, and then slowly drifts NE as the longwave trough carrys the 5h low out of there. This has no room to cut up inland through the Hudson Valley IMHO. But again, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The Europeans can't be happy about this.expect an upgrade in the Ecwmf by the fall It had the event though before any of the other models, its likely the northern stream issue bit it like it did all of the others....then it was later catching on in the short term...I posted yesterday afternoon that even though the Euro's stats show it verifies very well or even the best inside 72 hours that those numbers encompass every single day and run over a stretch of a said timeframe...that does not break down how it does in the case of a significant event inside 72 hours...its more error prone on major systems inside 72 than the GFS is if you ask me... OUTSIDE 72 hours its not even close, it destroys the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Seems to me HPC has no idea what models to go with and what they are doing.. http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html To take a qoute from a popular Xmas movie-Rocky 5-Baseball bat across the face would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If this all pans out, Isn't it common for a model to lose a storm for a few runs before bringing it back. Should you really blame the Euro. Isn't it perhaps more the fault of people who rely on the EURO as the gospel? I found it interesting yesterday, even after the Euro bailed, that most local weather service offices were cautioning the storm could come back By this a.m..however, they all were convinced it was going to be a non-event. If it wasn't for the EURO, could you image the shock if all this came together tonight absent the week-long build up (then let down). The public would really be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did HPC just throw out every 00z run tonight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did HPC just throw out every 00z run tonight?? They threw out every run that gave the east coast snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would not want to be a forecaster in Mt. Holly, Upton, Taunton, or DC now....what do you do as far as headlines? HPC says basically all of the models could be way off yet if you don't put anything out the media is going to bury you if this event happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Latest from Model Diagnostics at HPC posted at 1:33am - sounds like they are still not willing to go all in. I would guess they would need to see 06 and perhaps 12Z runs tomorrow to confirm this new trend? MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 134 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID DEC 25/0000 UTC THRU DEC 28/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF EVALUATION INCLUDING MODEL PREFERENCES... MODEL INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH COULD BE RELEVANT LIE BELOW. CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS...MUCH CLOSER BUT STRONGER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF INITIALIZATION AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN ANY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTION. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OF THIS COMPLICATED SYSTEM. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWED WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...WHICH IS A TREND WHICH HAS EXTENDED TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET SINCE THEIR 12Z RUNS THOUGH MORE EXTREME IN THE CASES OF THE CANADIAN AND UKMET. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTING SHARPLY WESTWARD AFTER ITS 2-3 DAY TREND TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST... AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY. THE ECMWFS DRASTIC CHANGE MAKES THE CONFIDENCE IN ITS CURRENT SOLUTION LOW. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. THE 21Z SREF MEAN IS SLOWER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...BUT SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...IT LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. THE GFS 850 HPA WINDS...BOTH THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE IN ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT ARE DOUBLE THAT OF THE 00Z NAM. SINCE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD FROM THEIR 12Z RUNS...LITTLE WEIGHT CAN BE PLACED ON THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND ADDS CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS LEAVES US WITH A PREFERENCE LYING BETWEEN THE MORE WESTERN 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THE MORE EASTERN 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN...A SOLUTION SIX HOURS SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREFERENCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS FORECAST UNTIL THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WHICH MAKE UP THE PARENT SYSTEM MERGE...AND WINTER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CAN BEGIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. SEE QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION IMPACT. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would not want to be a forecaster in Mt. Holly, Upton, Taunton, or DC now....what do you do as far as headlines? HPC says basically all of the models could be way off yet if you don't put anything out the media is going to bury you if this event happens. Is it even possible for every run to be that wrong I. This timescale?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew13btv Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I feel like the HPC is entering Baghdad Bob territory. But then again I certainly understand the need to play it safe. It'll be interesting to see how long they continue to sing the same tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would not want to be a forecaster in Mt. Holly, Upton, Taunton, or DC now....what do you do as far as headlines? HPC says basically all of the models could be way off yet if you don't put anything out the media is going to bury you if this event happens. Lee Goldberg et. al., are already going for a foot and saying they might need to upgrade. I guess they all make their own forecasts lol. Check this out, SG http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Big_Changes_in_Snow_Predictions_Going_Into_Potential_Storm_Philadelphia-112445454.html That's for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If this all pans out, Isn't it common for a model to lose a storm for a few runs before bringing it back. Should you really blame the Euro. Isn't it perhaps more the fault of people who rely on the EURO as the gospel? I found it interesting yesterday, even after the Euro bailed, that most local weather service offices were cautioning the storm could come back By this a.m..however, they all were convinced it was going to be a non-event. If it wasn't for the EURO, could you image the shock if all this came together tonight absent the week-long build up (then let down). The public would really be caught off guard. very common for them to lose a big system but usually not in the time frame they did...Usually it's in the 4-5 day range but this one was really strange.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it even possible for every run to be that wrong I. This timescale?? I dont know what the basis would be for them to say the Euro is wrong-- surely the GFS cant contaminate the Euro lol. BTW I dont think theyre throwing the 0z runs out-- if you read between the lines, theyre acknowledging the sharp trend west in all the models and said they are adjusting their forecast west from yesterday, but they also said this needs to be watched and is a low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I dont know what the basis would be for them to say the Euro is wrong-- surely the GFS cant contaminate the Euro lol. BTW I dont think theyre throwing the 0z runs out-- if you read between the lines, theyre acknowledging the sharp trend west in all the models and said they are adjusting their forecast west from yesterday, but they also said this needs to be watched and is a low confidence forecast. Its more the fact that its hard to find any model, this includes every mesoscale university run or MM5 thats a major miss right now.....perhaps maybe THAT is what is scaring them because there is usually something that significantly deviates from what most are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can anyone get surface temps from the Euro for the Delmarva for me? I'd appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its more the fact that its hard to find any model, this includes every mesoscale university run or MM5 thats a major miss right now.....perhaps maybe THAT is what is scaring them because there is usually something that significantly deviates from what most are showing. Scaring them into thinking this may be a big storm, SG? Or that there is something contaminating all the models? BTW, what did they mean by the GFS and Euro trending apart-- I thought they both trended well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That must have been written before the Euro came out even though the time on it is 1:34 AM. Scaring them into thinking this may be a big storm, SG? Or that there is something contaminating all the models? BTW, what did they mean by the GFS and Euro trending apart-- I thought they both trended well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scaring them into thinking this may be a big storm, SG? Or that there is something contaminating all the models? BTW, what did they mean by the GFS and Euro trending apart-- I thought they both trended well west. I think that line was left over from the 12AM disco. Poor/hasty editing job on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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