LehighValleyDad Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 bs guesses BOS 1.5" NYC 1.0" PHL 1.0" BWI .50" DC 0.50 RIC 0.70" RDU 0.70' western shield sw tip of va to elkins wva to state college to utica ny then ne along the canadian border calling that the .10 line Correct me if I am wrong but these totals are thru 48 right? Does the Euro still stall the low? ... if so there's more snow coming on top of these numbers for some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When do the 03z SREFs come out? 2AM? Between 2:40-2:45 on NCEP, and the individual ones should come out shortly after on PSU ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why should the west trend stop tonigh? For the Euro, maybe it won't...but I think we've hit the limit with the GFS...in fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go back out toward the Euro and we still get low warning criteria snows. Hey, be thankful for that. As of 12 hours ago, it was 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br /><br /><br /> Please tell me you mean 0.60 and not 0.060 fixed slowing board did not help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For DC.BWI...if I were forecasting, I'd go with a Watch for 3 to 6 inches and update throughout the morning. Its much easier to upgrade than to backtrack Before you would do that, do you have a Red Phone to call Wes & Dave for a consultation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So the QPF questions can be answered...will someone with detailed access and not being stupid and posting only in regional threads give the Euro QPF for BOS NYC PHL BWI DC RIC RDU And explain how far the precip goes back I can give you the Euro MOS FWIW... but I don't have acess to the regular maps yet: BOS 1.85 sun 18z 26 0.03 but at 00z .44 NYC 1.04 sun 18z 26 0.11 PHL 1.07 sun 18z 26 0.11 BWI 0.43 sun 12z 26 0.01 then 0.08 at 18z DCA 0.34 sun 00z 26 but small amounts (0.01, 0.02 until 18z (0.07) RIC 0.70 sun 00z 26 .07 RDU 0.61 sat 18z 25 .01 and 0.05 at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Correct me if I am wrong but these totals are thru 48 right? Does the Euro still stall the low? ... if so there's more snow coming on top of these numbers for some locations. thats the total totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Midlo, what's the QPF for ORF? Around 1.00"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AND A MODEL CONSENSUS IS RE-FORMING Roth HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thats the total totals Midlo, any chance you have ACY?? very much appreciated.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ME...MONDAY 12/27/10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Roth HPC Lol...was there any explanation about all the models having feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ACY is 1.4" on the ECMOS and ORF is 0.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the JMA OBLITERATES EVERYONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wheres Messenger to tell me the Euro is wrong due to no one flying on Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 greatest to least yellow 2-2.5 pinkis purple 1.75-2 dark purple 1.5-1.75 purple 1.25-1.5 lgt pink 1-1.25 turqouise .75-1 lgt blue .5-.75 green .25-.5 lgt green .25 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is one of the craziest forecasts to follow ever. We should all be thankful that it has been so entertaining, regardless of whether things pan out well in our backyards our not. As others have stated, it is nice to see each of the two big global models seeing the storm at the times they are supposed to perform best. Kudos to the GFS for first bringing this thing west after the big shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hey tombo can you do that for nc and va thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 JI, come on, you're slipping this is the TOTAL QPF as your map only covers a 24 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the euro precip pretty much looks like the new jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol...was there any explanation about all the models having feedback issues? Yeah...way down buried at the bottom, the GFS is somewhat distrusted. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1233 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 VALID DEC 25/0000 UTC THRU DEC 28/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN EVALUATION INCLUDING MODEL PREFERENCES... MODEL INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH COULD BE RELEVANT LIE BELOW. LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE THE ECMWF LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD SHOWN OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. WITHIN THE QUICK/NEARLY ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BOTH WITHIN THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD...THOUGH IT HAS SHRANK SINCE EARLIER AS THE CANADIAN HAS SPED UP THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. SINCE THE FLOW IS ZONAL...WILL FAVOR THE GUIDANCE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF THE SPREAD...WHICH WOULD BE A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-00Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE THE NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE QUICK/NEGATIVELY TILTED SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE 12Z...TOWARDS THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. WILL FAVOR A NON-00Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE HERE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY...PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOW/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. NOW THAT THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS SHRUNK WITH THE GUIDANCE BOUNDING THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-00Z NAM COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE 00Z NAM NOW APPEARS TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS MADE POSITIVE CHANGES WITH THIS SYSTEM...TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND NOW RESEMBLES THE REMAINDER OF THE NON-00Z NAM GUIDANCE. WILL PREFER A NON-00Z NAM COMPROMISE HERE. CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS...MUCH CLOSER BUT STRONGER THAN THE 00Z UKMET INITIALIZATION. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF DEPICTIONS. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OF THIS COMPLICATED SYSTEM. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...WHICH IS A TREND WHICH HAS EXTENDED TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET SINCE THEIR 12Z RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. WITH MINIMAL OVERLAPPING BETWEEN THE 21Z SREF MEMBERS AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS 15Z RUN/...WILL NOT CONSIDER ITS SOLUTION VIABLE. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...IT LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. THE GFS 850 HPA WINDS...BOTH THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE IN ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT ARE DOUBLE THAT OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...AND A MODEL CONSENSUS IS RE-FORMING...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ACY is 1.4" on the ECMOS and ORF is 0.92 Thank you, this is by far the wackiest storm I've seen in a long time in terms of model mayhem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 the euro precip pretty much looks like the new jma More like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah...way down buried at the bottom, the GFS is somewhat distrusted. they dont want to make a mistake. Their being very cautious!! They dont want people to go nuts in the cent md area, Which they're going to anyway.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apologies in advance if this is an overly noob-ish question, but is there any risk that this thing moves so far west that we start having mixing issues in some locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This isn't any more of a "crushing" than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 they dont want to make a mistake. Their being very cautious!! They dont want people to go nuts in the cent md area, Which they're going to anyway.!!! At this point I'm sure they've got some concerns about the system possibly coming even further west...I don't think it will happen but that argument has to be given some merit...1/25/00 came west of where even the models had it the night before when they all caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 People are going to be shocked to go to bed to a no snow forecast and wake up to a foot and a half... In this case, don't be cautious. Put watches up by morning. Sunday is a very busy travel day and you at least need to give people some time to adjust plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This isn't any more of a "crushing" than the GFS Actually, the JMA/GFS/EURO seem to almost have identical qpf totals here-- some consensus just inside 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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