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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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bs guesses

BOS 1.5"

NYC 1.0"

PHL 1.0"

BWI .50"

DC 0.50

RIC 0.70"

RDU 0.70'

western shield sw tip of va to elkins wva to state college to utica ny then ne along the canadian border calling that the .10 line

Correct me if I am wrong but these totals are thru 48 right? Does the Euro still stall the low? ... if so there's more snow coming on top of these numbers for some locations.

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So the QPF questions can be answered...will someone with detailed access and not being stupid and posting only in regional threads give the Euro QPF for

BOS

NYC

PHL

BWI

DC

RIC

RDU

And explain how far the precip goes back

I can give you the Euro MOS FWIW... but I don't have acess to the regular maps yet:

BOS 1.85 sun 18z 26 0.03 but at 00z .44

NYC 1.04 sun 18z 26 0.11

PHL 1.07 sun 18z 26 0.11

BWI 0.43 sun 12z 26 0.01 then 0.08 at 18z

DCA 0.34 sun 00z 26 but small amounts (0.01, 0.02 until 18z (0.07)

RIC 0.70 sun 00z 26 .07

RDU 0.61 sat 18z 25 .01 and 0.05 at 00z

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This is one of the craziest forecasts to follow ever. We should all be thankful that it has been so entertaining, regardless of whether things pan out well in our backyards our not.

As others have stated, it is nice to see each of the two big global models seeing the storm at the times they are supposed to perform best. Kudos to the GFS for first bringing this thing west after the big shift east.

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Lol...was there any explanation about all the models having feedback issues?

Yeah...way down buried at the bottom, the GFS is somewhat distrusted.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1233 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

VALID DEC 25/0000 UTC THRU DEC 28/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN EVALUATION INCLUDING MODEL

PREFERENCES...

MODEL INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH COULD BE RELEVANT LIE BELOW.

LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...PREFERENCE

FOR A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE

THE ECMWF LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD SHOWN OVER ITS PAST

COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. WITHIN THE

QUICK/NEARLY ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD

WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY

NIGHT BOTH WITHIN THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CURRENT

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD...THOUGH IT HAS SHRANK SINCE EARLIER

AS THE CANADIAN HAS SPED UP THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. SINCE THE

FLOW IS ZONAL...WILL FAVOR THE GUIDANCE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF THE

SPREAD...WHICH WOULD BE A 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS

COMPROMISE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN

CANADA...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-00Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE

THE NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST

DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE QUICK/NEGATIVELY TILTED SIDE OF

ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN HAS

TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE 12Z...TOWARDS THE

REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. WILL FAVOR A NON-00Z CANADIAN

COMPROMISE HERE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO

EARLY TUESDAY...PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE

THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOW/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF

RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER/STRONGER WITH THIS

SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. NOW THAT THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS

SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS

SHRUNK WITH THE GUIDANCE BOUNDING THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEANS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE

CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-00Z NAM COMPROMISE

THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF

RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST

DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER

ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE 00Z NAM NOW APPEARS TO BE A

SLOW OUTLIER. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS MADE POSITIVE CHANGES WITH

THIS SYSTEM...TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND NOW RESEMBLES THE REMAINDER

OF THE NON-00Z NAM GUIDANCE. WILL PREFER A NON-00Z NAM COMPROMISE

HERE.

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS...MUCH CLOSER BUT STRONGER

THAN THE 00Z UKMET INITIALIZATION. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE

ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE

SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES

ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE

SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF

DEPICTIONS. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT

THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OF THIS COMPLICATED SYSTEM.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND

ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME

YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST

SIDE OF THE OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT

PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK

SIDE DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA.

THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE

SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...WHICH IS A TREND WHICH HAS

EXTENDED TO THE CANADIAN/UKMET SINCE THEIR 12Z RUNS. THE GFS AND

ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO

SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST.

IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH

THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM

MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR FIVE

DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE

LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE

TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. WITH MINIMAL OVERLAPPING

BETWEEN THE 21Z SREF MEMBERS AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

/ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS 15Z RUN/...WILL NOT CONSIDER ITS

SOLUTION VIABLE. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE

FEEDBACK...IT LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. THE GFS 850

HPA WINDS...BOTH THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE EAST AND WELL

OFFSHORE IN ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT ARE DOUBLE THAT OF THE 00Z NAM

AND 12Z ECMWF. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS

ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH

IS UNUSUAL...AND A MODEL CONSENSUS IS RE-FORMING...WILL MINIMIZE

CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE

MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/12Z SREF MEAN

COMPROMISE.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

ROTH

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they dont want to make a mistake. Their being very cautious!! They dont want people to go nuts in the cent md area, Which they're going to anyway.!!!

At this point I'm sure they've got some concerns about the system possibly coming even further west...I don't think it will happen but that argument has to be given some merit...1/25/00 came west of where even the models had it the night before when they all caught on.

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