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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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I know the RUC isnt an 0z model, but its latest run (4z) looks VERY promising.

Here is reflectivity at the end of its run:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=12&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=04&fhour=12&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Been following RUC all day and it has trended better and better each run, both at surface and upper air features.

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For you GEM fans out there, here's a nice link that shows MSL and precip type from the 0-48 hr RGEM combined with the 48-120 hr GGEM. For the latest data, change the 00Hr prog to the latest current run. As noted, GEM has definitely taken a more western track with a good snowstorm through the DC-NYC-BOS corridor.

I_nw_r1_EST_2010122500_048.png

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Guest stormchaser

Good question. I would trust the Gfs more because the nam has a known n and w bias while Gfs is usually always S and E

Great point. Looks like the NAM had some init. issues as well.... so i wonder if that factors into this whole mess

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I know the RUC isnt an 0z model, but its latest run (4z) looks VERY promising.

Here is reflectivity at the end of its run:

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

Been following RUC all day and it has trended better and better each run, both at surface and upper air features.

FWIW.. this is what it looks like at the h5 level -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_018m.gif

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This is crazy.....but the NAM tipped off the trend west earlier today, noting the 3-6 inches it had in Monmouth/Ocean NJ.....and now we see the same area become a bulls-eye on the GFS with higher amounts.

When I first took a look at the GFS I thought it was the scotch painting what I wanted to see.:snowman:

I am not likely going to make the Euro but it has become so darn interesting to see if it heads back to the solutions prior.

Amazing....the GFS has decent totals out to the poconos, where I am heading Sunday morning. There is the key to it all. You see last year I missed EVERY major storm that buried us in Southern Monmouth County......and it would continue the trend from last year.....I head to the mountains for snow and my beach house gets 2ft and the Poconos see 4-8 at best. LOL

Almost 1300 people on the board right now...amazing considering it is Christmas Eve......

Merry Christmas everyone!! Look forward to seeing how this plays out after playing captain video in the morning!

Cheers!

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Guest stormchaser

I know the RUC isnt an 0z model, but its latest run (4z) looks VERY promising.

Here is reflectivity at the end of its run:

http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

Been following RUC all day and it has trended better and better each run, both at surface and upper air features.

Quite interesting. Looks like the RUC really likes the idea of that northern stream energy hanging around and possibly/hopefully dumping a few inches before the main show in the midatlantic region

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