BreezyDog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It looks like it will be snowing in the MA by mid morning tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know the RUC isnt an 0z model, but its latest run (4z) looks VERY promising. Here is reflectivity at the end of its run: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=12&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=04&fhour=12¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Been following RUC all day and it has trended better and better each run, both at surface and upper air features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For you GEM fans out there, here's a nice link that shows MSL and precip type from the 0-48 hr RGEM combined with the 48-120 hr GGEM. For the latest data, change the 00Hr prog to the latest current run. As noted, GEM has definitely taken a more western track with a good snowstorm through the DC-NYC-BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good question. I would trust the Gfs more because the nam has a known n and w bias while Gfs is usually always S and E Great point. Looks like the NAM had some init. issues as well.... so i wonder if that factors into this whole mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 euro just init, pbp in this thread unless someone gets it this early here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5920-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-6/page__st__400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro just kicked off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know the RUC isnt an 0z model, but its latest run (4z) looks VERY promising. Here is reflectivity at the end of its run: http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Been following RUC all day and it has trended better and better each run, both at surface and upper air features. FWIW.. this is what it looks like at the h5 level -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_018m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is crazy.....but the NAM tipped off the trend west earlier today, noting the 3-6 inches it had in Monmouth/Ocean NJ.....and now we see the same area become a bulls-eye on the GFS with higher amounts. When I first took a look at the GFS I thought it was the scotch painting what I wanted to see. I am not likely going to make the Euro but it has become so darn interesting to see if it heads back to the solutions prior. Amazing....the GFS has decent totals out to the poconos, where I am heading Sunday morning. There is the key to it all. You see last year I missed EVERY major storm that buried us in Southern Monmouth County......and it would continue the trend from last year.....I head to the mountains for snow and my beach house gets 2ft and the Poconos see 4-8 at best. LOL Almost 1300 people on the board right now...amazing considering it is Christmas Eve...... Merry Christmas everyone!! Look forward to seeing how this plays out after playing captain video in the morning! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know the RUC isnt an 0z model, but its latest run (4z) looks VERY promising. Here is reflectivity at the end of its run: http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Been following RUC all day and it has trended better and better each run, both at surface and upper air features. Quite interesting. Looks like the RUC really likes the idea of that northern stream energy hanging around and possibly/hopefully dumping a few inches before the main show in the midatlantic region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro pbp per Tombo: hr 6..closed h5 low over eastern tex...12z was opened at this time...hgr hgts along east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gary Gray's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 12 trof slightly more amplified..h5 opened up over louisiana....continued higher hgts along east coast...sub 1016 low just south of the boot of louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW.. this is what it looks like at the h5 level -- http://www.nco.ncep....uc_500_018m.gif Very potent at the base of the trough, looks to already be going neutral tilt or close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cras model is ridiculous it gives south carolina like 2 feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There IS other model support (especially ensemble)...and this is a MUCH shorter lead time. apples/oranges Yes, I know.... that's why I prefaced it with "What if...." One of your colleagues said that someone at HPC actually has a EURO bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 oh yea euro looking good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 18 way a good bit more amplified with the trof...sub 1012 low about 50 miles south of mobile, al...continued hgr hgts along east coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 24 big time more amplified than 12z....sub 1008 low over the knob of the fl panhandle....lgt precip knocking on dc's door... Looking better guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 oh yea euro looking good so far It's not the model of choce 12-36 but a west trend would be encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro...1006mb closed low along GA coast @ 30hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 oh yea euro looking good so far Do the play by play brotha, in here where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 30 sub 1004 low about 50 miles east of savannah ga....12z had a sub 1004 low about 150-200 miles east of myrtle beach at this time...lgt precip just past dc...lgt to od precip in central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hr36...998mb low off southern NC border...this is WAAAY better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do the play by play brotha, in here where it belongs. huge change at hr 30 low looks to bombing early just off sc ga coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 36 sub 996 low due south of hse by 75 miles or soo....h5 low starting to dive into the base of the trof...central and eastern carolinas getting pummeled HERE WE GO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Unwrapping our Christmas present as we speak:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 night and day between 12z 0z hr 36 0.25 already to ric .10 to dc 996 low south of hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 huge change at hr 30 low looks to bombing early just off sc ga coast How will HPC explain this away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How will HPC explain this away? THE DATA IS INFECTED!!!?!?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EC CAVED TO GFS!!!! 972 off the NJ coast south of Long Island!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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