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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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If the bwi-phil corridor gets on 1-3 their going to look wise not believing the gfs, esp if the euro does not agree. I really dont blame them. If the euro does not agree then you wait until tomorrow to see what the runs bring. I dont expect a wsw criterior to be announced until tomorrow aftn , at the earliest, if they think a storm is coming.

Problem is areas further south dont have the luxury of waiting until tomorrow. Start time is in 12 hours, 18 at the latest down here in central/southern VA.

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HPC SAYS ....

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS

LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND

THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY

AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z

SREF MEAN COMPROMISE.

GGEM RGEM is even stronger at 48.

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Problem is areas further south dont have the luxury of waiting until tomorrow. Start time is in 12 hours, 18 at the latest down here in central/southern VA.

That's true for places like GA/SC/NC. And I think they're on top of it in those regions with watches/advisories now. But heading up into the mid-Atlantic, this would be more a Sunday into Monday event.

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I do believe I said bwi-phil corridor. Your location is not in that territory, right??

You missed my point. I meant that the NWS down here (AKQ) which will be using the same HPC guidance as the DC-PHL corridor doesnt have the same lead time as you thats all.

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The thing that bothers me is that the RGEM GGEM UKIE and NAM all show almost the same Precip, the GFS is a lot further west. I'd like to see one model come close to the GFS.

GFS & SREF are similar. HPS claims convective feeback blunder, which should have the GFS overstrengthen the low, yet RGEM is booming at hr48. Whats "causing" the error on the GFS has changed, so that may be oversimplifying the issue.

Its there, no doubt though

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The GFS ensemble mean might be better than the operational down here.

that's what I was thinking and HPC is worried about feedback

Would you get that in the ensembles too?

I thought the ensembles would smooth out those kinds of problems some, but they show the same or more qpf than the operational

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This isnt an IMBY post, but just to show you how fluid this situation is, Lee Goldberg at 6 PM was calling for a trace to an inch for NYC and 1-3" for Queens, Brooklyn and most of Long Island-- 5 hours later, his forecast had changed to 6-12" for NYC and one foot for most of Long Island! I've never seen that quick of a forecast change.

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This isnt an IMBY post, but just to show you how fluid this situation is, Lee Goldberg at 6 PM was calling for a trace to an inch for NYC and 1-3" for Queens, Brooklyn and most of Long Island-- 5 hours later, his forecast had changed to 6-12" for NYC and one foot for most of Long Island! I've never seen that quick of a forecast change.

April fools 1997 had forecasts changing drastically w/i 12 hours of the storm up in Boston.

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April fools 1997 had forecasts changing drastically w/i 12 hours of the storm up in Boston.

Oh yea definitely-- that was like an ultra HECS up there, especially considering the time of year lol. We had a forecast for something like 8-15 inches here and ended up with 2-3 inches, with more snow both south and north of here.

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