Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Once the EURO comes out and goes way west, this will all be a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the bwi-phil corridor gets on 1-3 their going to look wise not believing the gfs, esp if the euro does not agree. I really dont blame them. If the euro does not agree then you wait until tomorrow to see what the runs bring. I dont expect a wsw criterior to be announced until tomorrow aftn , at the earliest, if they think a storm is coming. Problem is areas further south dont have the luxury of waiting until tomorrow. Start time is in 12 hours, 18 at the latest down here in central/southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So I have to uncancel a canceled snowstorm when I gather with my family tomorrow. I won't have access to a computer all day. I better not come home tomorrow night to "out to sea" and have to cancel again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Problem is areas further south dont have the luxury of waiting until tomorrow. Start time is in 12 hours, 18 at the latest down here in central/southern VA. I do believe I said bwi-phil corridor. Your location is not in that territory, right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SUNY mm5 looks like a monster coming!!! This model is usually progressive too! HERE IS SLP!!! http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2010122500/images_d1/slp.39.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam254 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Earl Barker's snowfall updated for 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC SAYS .... CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. GGEM RGEM is even stronger at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Problem is areas further south dont have the luxury of waiting until tomorrow. Start time is in 12 hours, 18 at the latest down here in central/southern VA. That's true for places like GA/SC/NC. And I think they're on top of it in those regions with watches/advisories now. But heading up into the mid-Atlantic, this would be more a Sunday into Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I do believe I said bwi-phil corridor. Your location is not in that territory, right?? You missed my point. I meant that the NWS down here (AKQ) which will be using the same HPC guidance as the DC-PHL corridor doesnt have the same lead time as you thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SUNY mm5 looks like a monster coming!!! This model is usually progressive too! HERE IS SLP!!! http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.39.0000.gif WOW, sure does! do you have a link to the entire run? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW, sure does! do you have a link to the entire run? thanks http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi only out to 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Despite potential logical reasoning in the lower confidence level, shouldn't some warning be given tonight? Its not like people spend Christmas day watching the news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The thing that bothers me is that the RGEM GGEM UKIE and NAM all show almost the same Precip, the GFS is a lot further west. I'd like to see one model come close to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The thing that bothers me is that the RGEM GGEM UKIE and NAM all show almost the same Precip, the GFS is a lot further west. I'd like to see one model come close to the GFS. GFS & SREF are similar. HPS claims convective feeback blunder, which should have the GFS overstrengthen the low, yet RGEM is booming at hr48. Whats "causing" the error on the GFS has changed, so that may be oversimplifying the issue. Its there, no doubt though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry XMas says the Suny MM5 usually progressive model: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2010122500/images_d1/pcp3.48.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It gets better JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry XMas says the Suny MM5 usually progressive model: absolutely beautiful @ 500mb http://cheget.msrc.s...cp3.48.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS ensemble mean might be better than the operational down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry XMas says the Suny MM5 usually progressive model: http://cheget.msrc.s...cp3.48.0000.gif How accurate is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS ensemble mean might be better than the operational down here. It definitely is for the RIC area. Throws back more QPF (around 1.00"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS ensemble mean might be better than the operational down here. that's what I was thinking and HPC is worried about feedback Would you get that in the ensembles too? I thought the ensembles would smooth out those kinds of problems some, but they show the same or more qpf than the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS ensemble mean might be better than the operational down here. It would be shocking if the Gfs is wrong. I mean the storm literally should be starting soon if not already started in the gulf coast. Our storm would begin in 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This isnt an IMBY post, but just to show you how fluid this situation is, Lee Goldberg at 6 PM was calling for a trace to an inch for NYC and 1-3" for Queens, Brooklyn and most of Long Island-- 5 hours later, his forecast had changed to 6-12" for NYC and one foot for most of Long Island! I've never seen that quick of a forecast change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This isnt an IMBY post, but just to show you how fluid this situation is, Lee Goldberg at 6 PM was calling for a trace to an inch for NYC and 1-3" for Queens, Brooklyn and most of Long Island-- 5 hours later, his forecast had changed to 6-12" for NYC and one foot for most of Long Island! I've never seen that quick of a forecast change. April fools 1997 had forecasts changing drastically w/i 12 hours of the storm up in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've never heard of the mm5 model...should that be a sign to disregard? Nice to see it support gfs though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 even the weenie radar is cooperating with us tonight! http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've never heard of the mm5 model...should that be a sign to disregard? Nice to see it support gfs though! its a short term model that has a high resolution the fact that it and the GFS show a big hit tells me the NAM is on crack, not the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 April fools 1997 had forecasts changing drastically w/i 12 hours of the storm up in Boston. Oh yea definitely-- that was like an ultra HECS up there, especially considering the time of year lol. We had a forecast for something like 8-15 inches here and ended up with 2-3 inches, with more snow both south and north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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