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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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We need some ensembles to confirm...GGEm, blah, who cares...Euro...would be nice to have in our camp

you know the euro and the gfs have been at odds on this storm for a week now? I know the gfs sucks bla bla bla but usually its pretty good in the 12-36 hour range right?

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We need some ensembles to confirm...GGEm, blah, who cares...Euro...would be nice to have in our camp

All 0z models came west, I think the Euro will too. Even if it doesnt, its already the outlier and out of its deadly range (days 3-7) which ironically showed a hit then and dropped it.

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Mitch, GGEM would probably be a miss (down here), but it is much improved vs 12z and has come back west a bit

it is a vast improvement from what it was showing, so in that respect, its probably relevant by giving more support to the idea that the storm has come west

but I agree it ain't a huge event down here

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HPC SAYS ....

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS

LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND

THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY

AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z

SREF MEAN COMPROMISE.

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The GGEM came way west, dude.

Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3.

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Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3.

or zero:(

the models except for the ECMWF midweek has constantly been dancing around DC/BWI

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HPC SAYS ....

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

So at 12z its intialization errors and at 18z and 0z its convective feedback....

Two different errors leading to the same solution, right...

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HPC SAYS ....

CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z

NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE

THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES

WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA

LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE

THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS

ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT

THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE

INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE

NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD

DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

This is getting ridiculous. At this rate, HPC is going to have to disregard the foot of snow on the ground. Every model came way west and yet there still hanging on the euro when at this range. Unbelievable....:huh:

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Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3.

A blend of GFS with NAM gives me 4 inches or so. SREFs honked here for sure, though. I hope Euro lurches west which will give me confidence in a WSW-criteria snow.

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This is getting ridiculous. At this rate, HPC is going to have to disregard the foot of snow on the ground. Every model came way west and yet there still hanging on the euro when at this range. Unbelievable....:huh:

If the bwi-phil corridor gets on 1-3 their going to look wise not believing the gfs, esp if the euro does not agree. I really dont blame them. If the euro does not agree then you wait until tomorrow to see what the runs bring. I dont expect a wsw criterior to be announced until tomorrow aftn , at the earliest, if they think a storm is coming.

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Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3.

At least we have a camp now...previous runs had us out in the cold.

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