stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mitch, GGEM would probably be a miss (down here), but it is much improved vs 12z and has come back west a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GGEM looks west, but our Canadian friends will remind us it shouldn't even be looked at in this range. God save the Queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We need some ensembles to confirm...GGEm, blah, who cares...Euro...would be nice to have in our camp you know the euro and the gfs have been at odds on this storm for a week now? I know the gfs sucks bla bla bla but usually its pretty good in the 12-36 hour range right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We need some ensembles to confirm...GGEm, blah, who cares...Euro...would be nice to have in our camp Did you see the SREF? It's going bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you know the euro and the gfs have been at odds on this storm for a week now? I know the gfs sucks bla bla bla but usually its pretty good in the 12-36 hour range right? how much is it worth to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mitch, GGEM would probably be a miss (down here), but it is much improved vs 12z and has come back west a bit http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Disregard the GFS it's solution is too strong............ REALLY!!!!!!! WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hmmm ggem like nam, slightly disappointed, but its good that rgem looks like gfs at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We need some ensembles to confirm...GGEm, blah, who cares...Euro...would be nice to have in our camp All 0z models came west, I think the Euro will too. Even if it doesnt, its already the outlier and out of its deadly range (days 3-7) which ironically showed a hit then and dropped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the HPC initialization error fiasco probably prevented the 12z GFS from showing a bigger event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mitch, GGEM would probably be a miss (down here), but it is much improved vs 12z and has come back west a bit it is a vast improvement from what it was showing, so in that respect, its probably relevant by giving more support to the idea that the storm has come west but I agree it ain't a huge event down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the HPC initialization error fiasco probably prevented the 12z GFS from showing a bigger event There were issues with tonights GFS too. NO JOKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i haven't seen DT on here yet but he has updated his facebook page a little!! if this is ok.............. http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hmmm ggem like nam, slightly disappointed, but its good that rgem looks like gfs at least GGEM is incredibly west of 12z. all other models are just playing catch up with GFS. I never thought I would be saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS ensemble mean is almost just like the OP run...maybe just a tick east and obviously not as deep with the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 sref west nam west gfs west ggem west jma west ukie west do we really need the euro at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hmmm ggem like nam, slightly disappointed, but its good that rgem looks like gfs at least The GGEM came way west, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 tasty... mmmmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There were issues with tonights GFS too. NO JOKE are you sure? It says the NAM NGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES...NAM INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH COULD BE RELEVANT LIE BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I heard someone say hpc is still not buying the gfs ooz solution. Still going w/ euro. Can anyone verify or is that to be expected. It was mentinoned on Accu Henry marg. Fbook pg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC SAYS .... CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WE DID IT this is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GGEM came way west, dude. Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3. or zero:( the models except for the ECMWF midweek has constantly been dancing around DC/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC SAYS .... CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. So at 12z its intialization errors and at 18z and 0z its convective feedback.... Two different errors leading to the same solution, right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 HPC SAYS .... CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. This is getting ridiculous. At this rate, HPC is going to have to disregard the foot of snow on the ground. Every model came way west and yet there still hanging on the euro when at this range. Unbelievable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3. A blend of GFS with NAM gives me 4 inches or so. SREFs honked here for sure, though. I hope Euro lurches west which will give me confidence in a WSW-criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Inside 48 hours and HPC is using "convective feedback" and "data" problems as reasons to disregard. I thought these terms were reserved for weenies when the model didn't show what they wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is getting ridiculous. At this rate, HPC is going to have to disregard the foot of snow on the ground. Every model came way west and yet there still hanging on the euro when at this range. Unbelievable.... If the bwi-phil corridor gets on 1-3 their going to look wise not believing the gfs, esp if the euro does not agree. I really dont blame them. If the euro does not agree then you wait until tomorrow to see what the runs bring. I dont expect a wsw criterior to be announced until tomorrow aftn , at the earliest, if they think a storm is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah but I think there's a distinct set of camps for your area. I wouldn't take the GGEM seriously anyway...but there's the GFS (and its ensembles) vs the other guidance which has come west but still hooks around the DC/BWI/PHL corridor. I think that area might be starting to have the most difficult forecast in this storm. BWI-PHL could legitimately get a MECS or they could just get an inch or 3. At least we have a camp now...previous runs had us out in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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