Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Next week the year of extremes continue.... we go for a record of how fast the east coast can melt off a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 does it really matter what the local mets say. They use the same GFS as we do I was referring to it being an irresponsible forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Huh? What do you want them to do now? This is a very sizeable shift. There is NO way I'd go on TV spouting this scenario..but I certainly let folks now things are changing towards a snowier scenario. Most people probably think it is a miss and are busy watching the Christmas story to know what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was referring to it being an irresponsible forecast at this point. the TV Mets need to give the 2 possibilities and then indicate where they are leaning. THis is an impossible storm to forecast at 11:27pm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Huh? What do you want them to do now? This is a very sizeable shift. There is NO way I'd go on TV spouting this scenario..but I certainly let folks now things are changing towards a snowier scenario. Lee Goldberg, channel 7 just called for 6-12 for NYC, a foot or more for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FOX 45 Baltimore is the most bullish so far. Mentioned 5-10 inches possible in Balto with more on eastern shore. Sometimes I think local mets are using model runs from 24 hours ago when they figure out what they're going to base their forecast on, especially for winter storms. I mean, the local ABC met said 'good news, because the trend for this storm is it trending away from shore to the east'. uhh, really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are you serious? is that what the GFS says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Huh? What do you want them to do now? This is a very sizeable shift. There is NO way I'd go on TV spouting this scenario..but I certainly let folks now things are changing towards a snowier scenario. I would not go on and say 4-8 but i would emphasize that the threat exists that this may develop into a major storm for the area that drastically impacts holiday travel. Goal is not to cause alarm or issue a definitive forecast but to ensure that people keep an eye on the forecast because it is likely to change (up or down) over the next 12-24 hrs. One reason that i love the CWG (capital weather gang) is that they issue probabilistic forecasts which actually conveys the uncertainty that exists with any forecast. Unfortunately, the general public wants a number which in a situation like this is unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z Nogaps onboard for SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Exactly what I was thinking. Just watched the 11 pm forecast on NBC here in DC and they mentioned that "Ocean City may even see an inch, flurries for the DC area" This could be one of the storms that makes us Mets looks incompetent thanks to model waffling right up to the storm, this could be a huge issue for those traveling sunday-monday who are currently expecting dry roads. I cant wait to see the ensembles. Holy *bleepity bleep* if this verifies. I was in North Central N.C. for the January 20000 storm and remember Greg Fishel of WRAL actually going on air and apologizing for blowing the forecast. I would love to see a repeat here in the D.C. area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FOX 45 Baltimore is the most bullish so far. Mentioned 5-10 inches possible in Balto with more on eastern shore. they are accuwx, though they don;t advertise it they always have accuwx graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OMG- wtf! I do believe the GFS has been showing this for that time period for awhile now? Big warmup with huge storm way to the west, then cold again, basically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DC Folks: NBC4 = dusting in DC, 1" south and east of town ABC7 = POSSIBILITY of up to 1 or 2 inches CBS9 = Didn't talk about amounts, but showed a computer model with a 3"-6" band across the area. FOX5 = Simpsons rerun Who goes to local news (the holiday crew no less) for the weather when you have top meteorologists and the latest info right here at your fingertips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, umm, about that initialization error in 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
armyftball Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm is teaching humility in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 they are accuwx, though they don;t advertise it they always have accuwx graphics there is one guy who never backed off his forecast lol http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hope this is more like 06 than 00. Jan 00 got zilch. 10-12" in 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So, umm, about that initialization error in 12z... My guess is that they really had no idea what the effects of the errors were, but when they saw the gfs for no reason just explode an mecs, seemed logical to attribute it to the error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 quite the turn of events for the MA http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=AKQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 99% of the real world I'm talking about people who frequent this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 quite the turn of events for the MA http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=AKQ Mitch... thats from the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm talking about people who frequent this board. Its interesting to hear what """other mets, or weather people"" from the tv stations think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mitch... thats from the 18z run we're gonna' need a bigger shovel then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We need some ensembles to confirm...GGEm, blah, who cares...Euro...would be nice to have in our camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Holy *bleepity bleep* if this verifies. I was in North Central N.C. for the January 20000 storm and remember Greg Fishel of WRAL actually going on air and apologizing for blowing the forecast. I would love to see a repeat here in the D.C. area. Yeah, that was one of my all time favorites. Greg is a good met too but the models just blew it. It was a snow hurricane for those of us in NC who are not used to such strong and wrapped up storms down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My guess is that they really had no idea what the effects of the errors were, but when they saw the gfs for no reason just explode an mecs, seemed logical to attribute it to the error. They had a heavy decision to make considering the Holiday weekend......do we shut down the entire east coast prior to Christmas, or do we wait until it is certain that this thing is coming? Such is life in this country. Read between the lines...Many folks can now lock their travel plans in and make it home.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 precip forecast from GGEM at 48 hrs snow still falling in the MA around I95 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c44_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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