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00z Model Thread 12/25/10 -- Will Santa Bring us Christmas Cheer?


yoda

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This run gives you a foot easily, me maybe 15. Great run.

whatever happens with this storm, its an embarrassing situation for modeling, weathermen and hobbyist who update their friends and family. I look like a fool to my friends going from a snowstorm(last week) to a blizzard(on wednesday) to out to sea(yesterday) back to a snowstorm again today.

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Exactly what I was thinking. Just watched the 11 pm forecast on NBC here in DC and they mentioned that "Ocean City may even see an inch, flurries for the DC area"

This could be one of the storms that makes us Mets looks incompetent thanks to model waffling right up to the storm, this could be a huge issue for those traveling sunday-monday who are currently expecting dry roads. I cant wait to see the ensembles.

Huh? What do you want them to do now? This is a very sizeable shift. There is NO way I'd go on TV spouting this scenario..but I certainly let folks now things are changing towards a snowier scenario.

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wjz-tv just said flurries!!!13 in blatimore either they haven't seen the 00z gfs or their not buying it!! should we buy this/?

lol that was the most prudent forecast until the data "hiccups" from 12z actually proved to be the good juice for this storm. Remember how we all had thrown out the 12z and 18z GFS and NAM due to bad data. Without those models, everything was mostly a miss at 12z.

Oh man this drive from ny to baltimore day after tomorrow could be interesting.

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whatever happens with this storm, its an embarrassing situation for modeling, weathermen and hobbyist who update their friends and family. I look like a fool to my friends going from a snowstorm(last week) to a blizzard(on wednesday) to out to sea(yesterday) back to a snowstorm again today.

It's not your fault.. all you're doing is regurgitating model output.. It's not like you have any real skills to defend.

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Gotta love the 00z trend-- hopefully the ECMWF will fall west and there will be a lot of happy Xmas folks around here! Easily my all-time favorite winter-storm system--

- wild swings from nothing to blizzard on the GFS and the ECMWF-- if it ends in blizzard, what a ride! Either way, you got yer money's worth...

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Sprayed egg nog on my screen on this one... I hope I get some love in Lynchburg from this event. The past few days have been a wild ride for a lurker like me. I have learned a lot. Merry Christmas to those who have to put thier reputations on the line and forecast to the rest of us. As Donald Rumsfeld famously said, "There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. And the are unknown unknowns." Seems like this event has been all three...

Well, glad you got a laugh (even at the expense of your computer screen)!! I couldn't resist. Actually, lots still uncertain, of course. Not a fan of Rummy myself, but yes, his quote is valid in this situation. I'm excited about this, but hope this trend continues and is real. It sure seems at this point that it's real enough.

This actually impacts my travel plans directly, though I'm still hoping for a big storm regardless! Going up to Philly tomorrow, with plans to come back later on Sunday. If this pans out as we see here, I may be leaving a lot earlier to get back to DC before things get really bad.

By the way...spiked egg nog you're drinking, I hope!:lol:

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