Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No way us weenies pull this off. No way. WE DID IT this is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the JMA/GFS combo is deadly folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WE DID IT this is nuts we havent done dick til DR NO sort of agrees right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can anyone see the QPF for ABE and MDT? Supposed to have Christmas dinner Saturday night near Allentown. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Somebody wake up DT and the pooch!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, 516dm low vertically stacked with a 964mb surface low off of Cape Cod. Incredible if this comes close to verifying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SO is Euro still king from 48 or so hours ago? Or is GFS king for crowning this event? OR is it still to early?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No way us weenies pull this off. No way. See the Dewey Defeats Truman picture I posted a little while back for fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IAD-.60" Martin's Airport (that's you Phineas!)-1.09" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Crushing blow DC to BOS. Spitting ~2.00" IMBY @ KTAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run gives you a foot easily, me maybe 15. Great run. whatever happens with this storm, its an embarrassing situation for modeling, weathermen and hobbyist who update their friends and family. I look like a fool to my friends going from a snowstorm(last week) to a blizzard(on wednesday) to out to sea(yesterday) back to a snowstorm again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Forecaster nightmare unfolding...a lot of people are NOT expecting these turn of events. I doubt many people will be checking the weather first thing, what with Christmas and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No doubt. Precip issues and a dry slot. Remember the 18z only gave ACY 4.2 and the NAM showed mixing. puts me between 1.5 & 2 here at ACY,But I could be fighting p-type issues for a few hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Annapolis-1.16" Wesminster-.59" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what a week of tracking i need sleep ukie came north west from 12 z very close to 12/21 euro ... only diff had tighter h5 closed low over KY and was neutral by this pt and which had 971mb bomb off C NJ later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The question we have to answer is why is the GFS correct and the NAM wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the ukmet came west like 800 miles in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wjz-tv just said flurries!!!13 in blatimore and they could still be correct, though less likely by the minute. When wes bangs the gong, then its time to take it to the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 first time ever, ehh? Yeah, somehow I don't think they will look at him any differently on Tuesday no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Exactly what I was thinking. Just watched the 11 pm forecast on NBC here in DC and they mentioned that "Ocean City may even see an inch, flurries for the DC area" This could be one of the storms that makes us Mets looks incompetent thanks to model waffling right up to the storm, this could be a huge issue for those traveling sunday-monday who are currently expecting dry roads. I cant wait to see the ensembles. Huh? What do you want them to do now? This is a very sizeable shift. There is NO way I'd go on TV spouting this scenario..but I certainly let folks now things are changing towards a snowier scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the EURO falls in line with the GFS... this board will crash. If the EURO disagrees with the GFS and is out to sea... Weenies will be going nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z UKIE (precip skps every other 6 hours panel - for some reason, full maps out at 1:00) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wjz-tv just said flurries!!!13 in blatimore either they haven't seen the 00z gfs or their not buying it!! should we buy this/? lol that was the most prudent forecast until the data "hiccups" from 12z actually proved to be the good juice for this storm. Remember how we all had thrown out the 12z and 18z GFS and NAM due to bad data. Without those models, everything was mostly a miss at 12z. Oh man this drive from ny to baltimore day after tomorrow could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 whatever happens with this storm, its an embarrassing situation for modeling, weathermen and hobbyist who update their friends and family. I look like a fool to my friends going from a snowstorm(last week) to a blizzard(on wednesday) to out to sea(yesterday) back to a snowstorm again today. It's not your fault.. all you're doing is regurgitating model output.. It's not like you have any real skills to defend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the EURO falls in line with the GFS... this board will crash. If the EURO disagrees with the GFS and is out to sea... Weenies will be going nuts. Who cares if the ecmwf is ots, it would be an outlier. But if falls in line, that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so tough with the models... decided to start with a conservative forecast, but still kept snow in it. if the current trends continue, snow forecasts would have to be increased substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can't help but remember earlier in the week when the Euro was showing this. DT mentioned that not until 84 hours in should you trust the GFS. It was about yesterday , around 84 hours when the GFS started this shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gotta love the 00z trend-- hopefully the ECMWF will fall west and there will be a lot of happy Xmas folks around here! Easily my all-time favorite winter-storm system-- - wild swings from nothing to blizzard on the GFS and the ECMWF-- if it ends in blizzard, what a ride! Either way, you got yer money's worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sprayed egg nog on my screen on this one... I hope I get some love in Lynchburg from this event. The past few days have been a wild ride for a lurker like me. I have learned a lot. Merry Christmas to those who have to put thier reputations on the line and forecast to the rest of us. As Donald Rumsfeld famously said, "There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. And the are unknown unknowns." Seems like this event has been all three... Well, glad you got a laugh (even at the expense of your computer screen)!! I couldn't resist. Actually, lots still uncertain, of course. Not a fan of Rummy myself, but yes, his quote is valid in this situation. I'm excited about this, but hope this trend continues and is real. It sure seems at this point that it's real enough. This actually impacts my travel plans directly, though I'm still hoping for a big storm regardless! Going up to Philly tomorrow, with plans to come back later on Sunday. If this pans out as we see here, I may be leaving a lot earlier to get back to DC before things get really bad. By the way...spiked egg nog you're drinking, I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My local NBC station (i'm in Montgomery County, MD) just said we might get a dusting - said nothing else. Ouch. does it really matter what the local mets say. They use the same GFS as we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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