April Medium/Long Range Thread

[North Balti Zen]

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This has never happened at these pdo levels. Closest is 72-73 when the pdo fell to -2 before that nino developed. It rose to neutral/weak negative by winter

'72-'73 you say? Why that had to be a humdinger of a winter, right?

 

Oh. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well consistency is the name of the game.. no one probably thinks the -PDO is because of -PNA conditions having been happening, and that is probably a more accurate way of saying it, that the El Nino is not right now correlating to +PNA, but -PNA. 65-66 and 72-73 were both El Nino's/-PNA's through the Winter, but that is small sample size although I can say it was right in the heart of that -PDO just to make a future point..  

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well consistency is the name of the game.. no one probably thinks the -PDO is because of -PNA conditions having been happening, and that is probably a more accurate way of saying it, that the El Nino is not right now correlating to +PNA, but -PNA. 65-66 and 72-73 were both El Nino's/-PNA's through the Winter, but that is small sample size although I can say it was right in the heart of that -PDO just to make a future point..  

65-66 had a neutral pdo leading into that winter so I didn’t mention it. It produced a prolific EC blizzard though

[psuhoffman]

On 5/4/2023 at 3:09 PM, Terpeast said:

65-66 had a neutral pdo leading into that winter so I didn’t mention it. It produced a prolific EC blizzard though

A lot more of the Nino's during the last significant -PDO featured a -PNA.  We overcame that in many of them with blocking.  I have my doubts how that would work now.  

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

A lot more of the Nino's during the last significant -PDO featured a -PNA.  We overcame that in many of them with blocking.  I have my doubts how that would work now.  

So do I. That’s why I’m hoping the -pdo will become less negative or closer to neutral.