April Medium/Long Range Thread

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS Wave 1 late Thursday through Friday widespread soaker and chilly... but we need the rain.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS Wave 1 late Thursday through Friday widespread soaker and chilly... but we need the rain.

Man, if only we had this pattern a couple months ago!

[Eskimo Joe]

We need a solid 1-2" event every week for a month.

[frd]

19 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We need a solid 1-2" event every week for a month.

WPC really ramped up the rainfall today in the afternoon update. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS...still on track for a wet Friday-Sunday period...plus 18Z GFS probabilities.

[mattie g]

 

[mdhokie]

Cool and rainy, just like our winter!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K....soaker incoming for Friday.

[stormy]

On 4/25/2023 at 9:18 AM, mattie g said:

 

Thanks Mattie!!!   You are illustrating a problem that has created snowfall problems for years.

[psuhoffman]

On 4/26/2023 at 5:31 PM, stormy said:

Thanks Mattie!!!   You are illustrating a problem that has created snowfall problems for years.

In the winter if the mid latitude storm track is to our north/west we will be "dry".  But it wouldn't matter if it was "wet" since most of the time we are also too warm.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Every time we get a -NAO block, a -PNA of validity and strength develops/new model trend, everytime. 

https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH

 

Eventually someone will discuss it with me muahahaha

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I just think this is amazing. We probably aren't going to get a cold Winter. 

https://ibb.co/9Vsw203

[NAO theorum]

[mattie g]

20 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just think this is amazing. We probably aren't going to get a cold Winter. 

https://ibb.co/9Vsw203

[NAO theorum]

97.3% of the people here have no idea how your posts relate to your theories.

Just being honest.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

In the anomalies, W->E is proving much superior to S->N. a Low in the N. Pacific ocean is more likely to give us cold than a High to the north. It's an anomaly than began about 10 years ago, and has increased in correlation over time, peaking now. I think it's interesting, 500mb low over Greenland elongates south to the SE, while a block over Greenland, seems to pump the SE ridge under it or correlates to a N. Pacific that pumps the SE ridge downstream. 

[Terpeast]

49 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the anomalies, W->E is proving much superior to S->N. a Low in the N. Pacific ocean is more likely to give us cold than a High to the north. It's an anomaly than began about 10 years ago, and has increased in correlation over time, peaking now. I think it's interesting, 500mb low over Greenland elongates south to the SE, while a block over Greenland, seems to pump the SE ridge under it or correlates to a N. Pacific that pumps the SE ridge downstream. 

Could it be that those greenland blocks were positioned too far S/W that ridging occurs over the east coast? What if the blocks were more central or east based?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The high pressure just isn't circulating cold air under it. On models, it trends to the time of happening, as a Pacific pattern change. 

The area that correlates is like this. 

https://ibb.co/pw2HBm8

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think we are trending toward a hotter Summer. These are the last 3 Summer's

https://ibb.co/WHB3jnc

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the anomalies, W->E is proving much superior to S->N. a Low in the N. Pacific ocean is more likely to give us cold than a High to the north. It's an anomaly than began about 10 years ago, and has increased in correlation over time, peaking now. I think it's interesting, 500mb low over Greenland elongates south to the SE, while a block over Greenland, seems to pump the SE ridge under it or correlates to a N. Pacific that pumps the SE ridge downstream. 

A NA blocking pattern isn't a miracle worker. We need anomalous cold in the pattern(somehow) for snow to occur at our latitude/relatively low elevation. In a warming climate with a potentially stronger/persistent NPJ + warmer Atlantic, that probably means a mechanism that injects cross polar flow(+PNA/-EPO). The days of a -AO/NAO/ -PNA being a good setup for snow in these parts is probably on the wane. 

220, 221. Whatever it takes. (for snow)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's like a car that doesn't reach its max and putters out gas. The potential is there for +900dm to +1000dm -NAO I think, and when that doesn't happen, when it's not reached, the puttering out SE/EC ridge seems to occur.. capped 

Maybe the tropical jet stream isn't even that high.. hits a plateau where the ridge runs from south to north. 

[psuhoffman]

19 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Could it be that those greenland blocks were positioned too far S/W that ridging occurs over the east coast? What if the blocks were more central or east based?

I think due to increased mid latitude ridging it is probably true that a SW displaced NAO block runs increased risk of linking up.  But I "think" (hard to tell sometimes) that Chuck is alluding to a change from previous norms and he is right that the -NAO as a whole is not reacting the way it used too.  I did a numerical comparison a few months ago (even before the most recent NAO fail late winter) that showed our "win" rate in terms of a -NAO producing cold and or snow is significantly decreased over the last 10 years compared to previous.  I do think some of that has been many of those -NAO's were SW biased, but some of them were also centered exactly where previous -NAO's that did produce were.  So I think both are true...we probably can still do better if the -NAO is centered more towards Greenland but that is kinda sad because some of our biggest storms ever came from retrograding blocks that ended up centered over Canada.  

[frd]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

we probably can still do better if the -NAO is centered more towards Greenland but that is kinda sad because some of our biggest storms ever came from retrograding blocks that ended up centered over Canada.  

Seems the methodolgy of what is needed for a big Mid Atlantic snow storm is changing. That is sad as you say.  

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems the methodolgy of what is needed for a big Mid Atlantic snow storm is changing. That is sad as you say.  

Yep. I think we all need to come to terms with the reality here. And also be thankful that we old enough to remember Snowmageddon and got to witness some epic storms in our lifetimes (and to never complain when we get whatever amount of snow we can still get!)

[brooklynwx99]

51 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems the methodolgy of what is needed for a big Mid Atlantic snow storm is changing. That is sad as you say.  

I wouldn't say that. sample size is just too small. if we have these problems in 2030 then yeah maybe

[frd]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn't say that. sample size is just too small. if we have these problems in 2030 then yeah maybe

I hope your right, time will tell.  I miss snow.  

[SnowenOutThere]

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep. I think we all need to come to terms with the reality here. And also be thankful that we old enough to remember Snowmageddon and got to witness some epic storms in our lifetimes (and to never complain when we get whatever amount of snow we can still get!)

Some of us weren’t old enough to experience such past storms, just another thing climate change takes away from the next generation. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Some of us weren’t old enough to experience such past storms, just another thing climate change takes away from the next generation. 

Yes that's why I said "We that are old enough to remember"! Like ya said a while back...be thankful. I do think your generation (dang that feels weird saying that since I'm only early 30s, lol) will see something eventually. There's enough chaos in weather that, even if things are indeed getting more difficult, we could luck into something one of these years. Don't give up on it entirely 

[Terpeast]

This is crazy

 

[WxUSAF]

The super -PDO with the developing Nino has to be pretty odd. Would like to see how often we’ve had both.

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The super -PDO with the developing Nino has to be pretty odd. Would like to see how often we’ve had both.

This has never happened at these pdo levels. Closest is 72-73 when the pdo fell to -2 before that nino developed. It rose to neutral/weak negative by winter

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This has never happened at these pdo levels. Closest is 72-73 when the pdo fell to -2 before that nino developed. It rose to neutral/weak negative by winter

Yeah, I feel like one of them has to give. Either the Nino stays below strong levels or the PDO trends toward neutral.