April Medium/Long Range Thread

[clueless]

^Add some rain. 

[CAPE]

Maybe a heavy rain threat this weekend with strong low pressure moving to our NW and an impressive moisture feed into our region. Really need a widespread soaker.

[frd]

Day 6-10 Discussion:

Late season frosts are possible early next week as far south as Northern SERC. Some of the daily departures will exceed 10 degrees below normal as a broad upper low centered over the Lakes and NE extends well south. This is a classic late season snow pattern near the Lakes. The only warmth in this set up is over the SW.

[hstorm]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Day 6-10 Discussion:

Late season frosts are possible early next week as far south as Northern SERC. Some of the daily departures will exceed 10 degrees below normal as a broad upper low centered over the Lakes and NE extends well south. This is a classic late season snow pattern near the Lakes. The only warmth in this set up is over the SW.

Sorry if I am missing the obvious, but where is "Northern SERC"?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, it's hitting this 2013-after timetrend and not trending -NAO anymore. Definite cap in place it seems.  

[mdhokie]

Hard pass on highs in the 50s in May.

And yea, what is the Northern SERC?

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Hard pass on highs in the 50s in May.

And yea, what is the Northern SERC?

Sounds like a reference to the electrical grid in the South central/ SE US.

https://www.serc1.org/about-serc

A bit odd to use that in the context of a weather outlook.

[pazzo83]

SERCC is Southeast Regional Climate Center - maybe they were trying to refer to that?

[Ajb]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sounds like a reference to the electrical grid in the South central/ SE US.

https://www.serc1.org/about-serc

A bit odd to use that in the context of a weather outlook.

Weather plays a major role in electricity consumption, so maybe that was taken from a write-up aimed at the electricity industry. 

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, Ajb said:

Weather plays a major role in electricity consumption, so maybe that was taken from a write-up aimed at the electricity industry. 

That appears to be an excerpt from the CPC prognostic discussion for the 6-10 period, so probably not. I always include a link when I make posts like that.

[CAPE]

Latest guidance is in agreement for a general inch(give or take) across the region later Saturday. Much needed.

[Its a Breeze]

On 4/14/2023 at 4:52 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

09-10 3 blizzards melted in 3 days, each time. mid 30s, it was ridiculous. We need heavy cloud cover these days (I hate 09-10). I'm saying we are really amped for a big storm, but the "nothing but GOA giving us snow" is really a snow drought pattern. 

So many questions, lol.

You hate 09-10 because we had 3 blizzards?? Are you referring to the 1909/1910 season? Melted in 3 days? Where exactly were you during that season? Also, those weren't the only times we got snow and it still doesn't explain why it was in the one hit wonder category. Which of the three was the one?

If the most snow we've ever seen in a season, for a huge majority of the region, was in a "snow drought pattern", what's the complaint? Given that no non-drought pattern season has given us that much?

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Latest guidance is in agreement for a general inch(give or take) across the region later Saturday. Much needed.

Much needed indeed.

But as much as we need the rain, it is absolutely atrocious timing if a cool wet pattern is trying to set up now. May is our last chance of one last gasp of spectacular weather.

[Steve25]

Trying to figure out exactly what we're looking at for Saturday. It was looking like an all night washout not too long ago, but suddenly the NAM makes it look like a rather intense line of storms for a few hours during the afternoon. 

[high risk]

16 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Trying to figure out exactly what we're looking at for Saturday. It was looking like an all night washout not too long ago, but suddenly the NAM makes it look like a rather intense line of storms for a few hours during the afternoon. 

     It's not just the NAM.    It's pretty clear consensus across the modeling suite that we're looking at a strong convective line later in the day Saturday.     Fortunately, it's timed well and has good moisture, so there is also consensus that it will drop some decent amounts and last for a few hours.     There will be more runoff than we'd prefer, but we'll take what we can get.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another check, 1,2,3 pattern. 

https://ibb.co/bWvSWz8

A lot of volatility still in the overall pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

So many questions, lol.

You hate 09-10 because we had 3 blizzards?? Are you referring to the 1909/1910 season? Melted in 3 days? Where exactly were you during that season? Also, those weren't the only times we got snow and it still doesn't explain why it was in the one hit wonder category. Which of the three was the one?

If the most snow we've ever seen in a season, for a huge majority of the region, was in a "snow drought pattern", what's the complaint? Given that no non-drought pattern season has given us that much?

I always wished for a culmination of snow, I remember the 3 blizzards being very weak, and I could see the grass days after, because of heavy sun. If it's wet, I'd rather it not snow. We were in a dry snow drought a lot after 02-03, and it seems to be going away somewhat the last few Winter's (dry, powdery snow vs wet snow). Something I watch is the quality of the snow. 

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I always wished for a culmination of snow, I remember the 3 blizzards being very weak, and I could see the grass days after, because of heavy sun. If it's wet, I'd rather it not snow. We were in a dry snow drought a lot after 02-03, and it seems to be going away somewhat the last few Winter's (dry, powdery snow vs wet snow). Something I watch is the quality of the snow. 

Very weak? 

And there was still snow cover on Xmas eve from the Dec storm, although it was rapidly going at that point with fog and rain incoming iirc. So there was snow cover for at least 6 days. The 2 big storms in Feb featured snow on snow, so there was snow otg again for a week at minimum.

Yes Chuck, sun contributes to melting snow, esp when temps are above freezing. We ain't Maine dude.

What did you think of the late Jan storm that winter? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, imagine like 3 blizzards piled up on top of each other. we would have 70" of snow! That was disheartening because even though the 3 blizzards happened within 3 weeks, they were all gone by the time the next one started.  I like blowing snow too. 00's storms have been very wet-quality. I think we are progressing back to better quality-snow type.  I could tell that Winter, 09-10, that we were going into a snow drought, because of the brightness. 

[Its a Breeze]

^ Absolutely none of that is true. Like at all, lol

But we're off topic.

Apologies for my contribution.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

^ Absolutely none of that is true. Like at all, lol

But we're off topic.

Apologies for my contribution.

Yeah, it's time to disengage. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Obsessed with numbers is wierd. But everyone is disconnected these days...

[CAPE]

Still lookin good! 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still lookin good! 

JB knew it all along 

[Chris78]

On 4/20/2023 at 3:23 PM, CAPE said:

Very weak? 

And there was still snow cover on Xmas eve from the Dec storm, although it was rapidly going at that point with fog and rain incoming iirc. So there was snow cover for at least 6 days. The 2 big storms in Feb featured snow on snow, so there was snow otg again for a week at minimum.

Yes Chuck, sun contributes to melting snow, esp when temps are above freezing. We ain't Maine dude.

What did you think of the late Jan storm that winter? 

Lol. At one point I had 4' to 5 ' of snow cover after the second February storm.

I remember telling my wife we we will never see this much snow otg  again in our life time. Atleast at our house in Central MD lol

 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. At one point I had 4' to 5 ' of snow cover after the second February storm.

I remember telling my wife we we will never see this much snow otg  again in our life time. Atleast at our house in Central MD lol

 

Was probably 3 ft here on avg after the second storm, an all out blizzard. It was very difficult to measure with the intense wind.

Maybe again, one day..

[CAPE]

Late next week will be interesting. A bit of a split flow regime, and guidance will likely struggle with the ultimate outcome at range. Chance for a significant storm to develop along the SE coast.

[CAPE]

If not late this week then perhaps next weekend for a coastal low. Would be cool to see a chilly soaking rain with some wind.

[WxUSAF]

Long duration soaking rain would help the drought 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Long duration soaking rain would help the drought 

Good signs for a Nino.

[CAPE]

The latest ens runs are in pretty good agreement in bringing rain into the region Friday/Sat associated with the low tracking across the south, then another chance the following Monday as upper level energy digs SE into the upper midwest. Sort of stalls over the GLs with additional energy dropping in underneath. Looks Miller B-ish on the GFS.