April Medium/Long Range Thread

[frd]

 

[Weather Will]

Much needed rain possible later Sunday/early Monday.  WB 0Z GFS and EURO.

[mdhokie]

Is the GFS on crack for the extended range? Or are we in store for a cold pattern ahead?

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Is the GFS on crack for the extended range? Or are we in store for a cold pattern ahead?

GOOD the AC is broke in my classroom and it does not sound like it will be fixed anytime soon.  

[psuhoffman]

On 4/8/2023 at 8:09 PM, frd said:

 

@Terpeast looking at this made me think about our conversation wrt upstream v downstream cause/effect of the SER.  But the gulf/atl isn't really downstream.  As any wave crosses the CONUS there will be some southerly flow ahead of it.  We obviously need that flow to be suppressed to some extent by the NS or to have cold air in place as that flow gets started...but south of us is off the Florida coast!  And as any wave ejects from the Rockies the southerly flow it initiates in the plains is off the gulf of mexico.  If those areas are on fire...it just seems logical that the southerly flow will be able to press north more than it would have otherwise.  Hence...we get a stronger SER than historic analogs indicate we should have.  None of that is to say I think the effect of the pacific doesn't have a part here...yes a ridge in the central pacific favors attempts at a SER.  But historically there were things that could mitigate that SER.  Lately...NOTHING mitigates it.  When there is a central pac ridge its just game over and the SER goes ape no matter what else (-4 AO/NAO even) is going on.  I think the warmer SST's in the gulf and SE coast are part of that equation.  That added warmth just make sit even harder to beat down the SER and perhaps means we can no longer expect to mitigate a hostile pacific through other means.  That is of course problematic since it eliminates another way to get snow and would doom us to atrocious results in even more winters that previously.  It would not mean it cannot still snow when we get a favorable pacific though.   I do think a favorable pacific can still overwhelm and suppress the SER.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast looking at this made me think about our conversation wrt upstream v downstream cause/effect of the SER.  But the gulf/atl isn't really downstream.  As any wave crosses the CONUS there will be some southerly flow ahead of it.  We obviously need that flow to be suppressed to some extent by the NS or to have cold air in place as that flow gets started...but south of us is off the Florida coast!  And as any wave ejects from the Rockies the southerly flow it initiates in the plains is off the gulf of mexico.  If those areas are on fire...it just seems logical that the southerly flow will be able to press north more than it would have otherwise.  Hence...we get a stronger SER than historic analogs indicate we should have.  None of that is to say I think the effect of the pacific doesn't have a part here...yes a ridge in the central pacific favors attempts at a SER.  But historically there were things that could mitigate that SER.  Lately...NOTHING mitigates it.  When there is a central pac ridge its just game over and the SER goes ape no matter what else (-4 AO/NAO even) is going on.  I think the warmer SST's in the gulf and SE coast are part of that equation.  That added warmth just make sit even harder to beat down the SER and perhaps means we can no longer expect to mitigate a hostile pacific through other means.  That is of course problematic since it eliminates another way to get snow and would doom us to atrocious results in even more winters that previously.  It would not mean it cannot still snow when we get a favorable pacific though.   I do think a favorable pacific can still overwhelm and suppress the SER.  

if we get a strong Nino next winter, the persistent trough over the Southeast will cool those anomalies down. those SSTs are largely a result of 5 Ninas in 7 years 

also the warm Gulf will help break snowfall records at some point. it's a give and take. repeat 2016 now and BWI gets 36" 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast looking at this made me think about our conversation wrt upstream v downstream cause/effect of the SER.  But the gulf/atl isn't really downstream.  As any wave crosses the CONUS there will be some southerly flow ahead of it.  We obviously need that flow to be suppressed to some extent by the NS or to have cold air in place as that flow gets started...but south of us is off the Florida coast!  And as any wave ejects from the Rockies the southerly flow it initiates in the plains is off the gulf of mexico.  If those areas are on fire...it just seems logical that the southerly flow will be able to press north more than it would have otherwise.  Hence...we get a stronger SER than historic analogs indicate we should have.  None of that is to say I think the effect of the pacific doesn't have a part here...yes a ridge in the central pacific favors attempts at a SER.  But historically there were things that could mitigate that SER.  Lately...NOTHING mitigates it.  When there is a central pac ridge its just game over and the SER goes ape no matter what else (-4 AO/NAO even) is going on.  I think the warmer SST's in the gulf and SE coast are part of that equation.  That added warmth just make sit even harder to beat down the SER and perhaps means we can no longer expect to mitigate a hostile pacific through other means.  That is of course problematic since it eliminates another way to get snow and would doom us to atrocious results in even more winters that previously.  It would not mean it cannot still snow when we get a favorable pacific though.   I do think a favorable pacific can still overwhelm and suppress the SER.  

Good post . It appears we're honing in on what the cause of the SER on every Steroid there is, IS. 

     We were thinking it probable the western Atlantic SST'S were at least part of the culprit. The linking of the SER with the big - NAO has been the puzzle, really, as in times past was almost unheard of.

    I think you've came up with the main reason PSU. Makes sense with those boiling Gulf SST'S. 

[Terpeast]

@psuhoffman yes, that makes a lot of sense. Warmer ssts with more moisture makes it easier for waves to amplify earlier and faster as they eject from the rockies. 

Hopefully flipping to a nino will help cool those gulf temps down. 

But that may take a while. Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity, so the gulf may get even hotter before it cools down. 

[midatlanticweather]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman yes, that makes a lot of sense. Warmer ssts with more moisture makes it easier for waves to amplify earlier and faster as they eject from the rockies. 

Hopefully flipping to a nino will help cool those gulf temps down. 

But that may take a while. Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity, so the gulf may get even hotter before it cools down. 

I was thinking this exact thing this year! The bathwater of the Atlantic and Gulf can be great for juicy storms, but also make us too warm when it comes to winters. I know he could find snow in a Thunderstorm in the middle of summer if he tried hard enough, but Joe Bastardi often linked increased hurricane activity to better east coast winter storms. I have no idea if there is a correlation, but I was thinking this last year we needed something to cool it down! Add the unfrozen Great Lakes, and it just did not help at all. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Kind of a massive little -AO here at end of April

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice +PNA too

https://ibb.co/H259JXG

This is what you want to see if you want next Winter to be good. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's that pattern again. -WPO and -NAO, and SE ridge and SW High pressure. 

https://ibb.co/bvWbJ7V

That's why I think we are more likely to have a Winter like 15-16 or 09-10 vs 02-03 or 95-96 (1 storm vs many). 

[Its a Breeze]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's why I think we are more likely to have a Winter like 15-16 or 09-10 vs 02-03 or 95-96 (1 storm vs many). 

With those dates and when you say "1 storm vs many" are you saying:

"one or many vs one or many"?

Or "one or one vs many or many"?

 

9-10 is throwing me off...

[paulythegun]

Chance of 0.1" of snow:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

47 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

With those dates and when you say "1 storm vs many" are you saying:

"one or many vs one or many"?

Or "one or one vs many or many"?

 

9-10 is throwing me off...

09-10 3 blizzards melted in 3 days, each time. mid 30s, it was ridiculous. We need heavy cloud cover these days (I hate 09-10). I'm saying we are really amped for a big storm, but the "nothing but GOA giving us snow" is really a snow drought pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Chance of 0.1" of snow:

Yeah, it's really trended toward -NAO. Not too much or no snow..

My latest day with snow is May 2nd. 

[CAPE]

 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice +PNA too

https://ibb.co/H259JXG

This is what you want to see if you want next Winter to be good. 

Wouldn't mind seeing something kinda like this next Jan-Feb.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

 

Yep, sickening but, not surprising. 

[psuhoffman]

18 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wouldn't mind seeing something kinda like this next Jan-Feb.

Don’t mind it now. My classroom has no AC and I have a lot of work to do on the yard, pool deck, and garden the next month and I much prefer 60ish over 90ish

[Terpeast]

20 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wouldn't mind seeing something kinda like this next Jan-Feb.

We could use the rain. About to start a vegetable garden. Ground is dusty bone dry

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t mind it now. My classroom has no AC and I have a lot of work to do on the yard, pool deck, and garden the next month and I much prefer 60ish over 90ish

I'm with ya. Doing some outside projects now and I am not crazy about the late June temps and humidity. I will gladly take typical early April weather for the end of the month. If it ends up on the wet side, can't complain about that either. We will be in bad shape if we don't get some rain over the coming weeks. Beyond that we depend largely on scattered convection for moisture.

[WxUSAF]

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A few inches in the western highlands isn't far fetched given the advertised pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

https://ibb.co/Ttxr54C

That's a pretty wicked cold pattern. I wonder if the 1) -NAO will stop trending since that has been the trend since 2013. 2) If the +PNA takes over the current -WP projected (ENSO subsurface warm favors more +pna). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice -NAO event Days 4-15. If I know anything, we'll gravitate toward more average - above average if the -NAO holds closer

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-nao, -ao, -pna, which holds more weight? 

https://ibb.co/QYFCMkG

(Nao has also been anti-thesis for about 10 years now, which means watch out for pacific patterns forming just based on opposite conditions of normal nao state.)

[paulythegun]

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[yoda]

^ Sun and 65-75 will be perfect IMO for late April