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Severe Weather 4-4-23

cheese007

By cheese007,
in Central/Western States

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

MD 458 graphic

  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

   Areas affected...portions of North Texas...eastern
   Oklahoma...western Arkansas into southwestern Missouri and
   southeastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042006Z - 042200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk initially for hail across
   portions of North TX/OK into portions of western AR. Additional
   development along the dryline is possible in eastern KS and western
   MO. Uncertainty on the exact timing and location of storm
   development is very high. Trends are being monitored for a possible
   weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2000 UTC, afternoon observations showed a broad
   plume of cirrus, associated with a deep western US trough,
   overspreading a warming and moistening air mass across much of the
   ArkLaTex and southern Plains. Within the broad cirrus, several CI
   attempts have been noted along and east of a confluence band ahead
   of the dryline in North TX. Surface temperatures near 80 and
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F are supporting moderate
   instability with MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg. With the main trough lagging
   to the west, forcing for ascent is rather nebulous over much of the
   region through the afternoon. This is evident in SPC mesoanalysis
   which shows considerable inhibition still in place below a robust
   EML. Despite the inhibition, strong flow aloft is supporting long
   elongated hodographs with effective shear of 50-60 kt favorable for
   supercells with the potential for large hail. Weaker low-level shear
   may limit the initial tornado threat if supercells are able to
   mature. However as forcing increases toward the evening, a greater
   threat for tornadoes may evolve.

   Recent visible and radar trends show several weak, likely elevated 
   updrafts over the Red river are persisting despite the inhibition.
   As updrafts cluster and shift north, a more sustained/sustained
   storm may evolve from these initial attempts. Diurnal heating/weak
   ascent may also support additional, isolated development around the
   dryline from east/northeastern OK into eastern KS. Poor handling of
   the situation by Hi-res guidance and nebulous forcing lends low
   confidence in additional convective development and the overall
   evolution. None the less, the strongly sheared and destabilizing air
   mass appears conditionally favorable for large to very large hail
   and possibly tornadoes late this afternoon into the evening. A
   greater threat will likely evolve overnight as the main trough
   ejects eastward. Trends will be monitored or a possible weather
   watch this afternoon but uncertainty is high.
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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted 
000
FXUS64 KFWD 042015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023/
/Through Wednesday/

This afternoon: An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out,
although that potential remains low. All modes of severe will be
possible if a storm does develop.

Tonight: A higher threat for severe weather will materialize.
Once again, all modes of severe weather will be possible. The
greatest threat will mainly be east of I-35, where the greatest
moisture will reside.

A deepening longwave trough continues to move eastward this early
Tuesday afternoon. Strong southerly flow beneath a strong capping
inversion is keeping partly to mostly cloudy conditions
throughout much of the region. A few convective attempts have
already occurred, but as expected, the stout capping inversion is
keeping storms at bay. Latest ACARS soundings show minimal change
to the inversion over the last several hours and generally
correlates fairly well with the forecast soundings showing a
stronger cap. A few showers beneath the cap continue to develop,
but overall, the potential for any one shower to break through the
cap is low. **IF**, however, an updraft does break the cap, large
hail, damaging winds and a tornado will all be possible.

Storm chances will briefly drop around/shortly after sunset as
surface heating gradually wanes. The next focus for additional
convective activity will be an incoming cold front, expected to
arrive around midnight within our northwestern counties. The
combination of the front and a subtle shortwave emerging out of
Mexico will lead to the rapid blossoming of thunderstorms along
the leading edge of the front. Steep mid-level lapse rates around
8 C/km, high instability and effective shear around 55 knots will
promote the development of embedded supercells capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two.

As the front moves through, the thunderstorm potential will come
to an end. Our far southeastern continues will be the last to see
see the front, passing through closer to 8 am tomorrow morning.
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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, mob1 said:

That cell near Centralia looks like it's about to go off. 

 

Edit; it kind of petered out. Stroms are having a tough time becoming surface-based. 

Chasing this currently. It’s elevated and the initial updraft is shriveling. It looked interesting for a bit:

 

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

I'm starting to think early in the day was the 'calm before the storm'.  This overnight storm does have me concerned .

 

 

 

MD 469 graphic

 

  

 Mesoscale Discussion 0469
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0846 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

   Areas affected...Northeastern Texas...south-central
   Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 050146Z - 050345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Monitoring potential tornado threat over the next few
   hours. Watch may be needed within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...A conditional tornado threat is evolving across the
   Arklatex region. Currently, a cluster of cells near the Arklatex
   region have shown evidence of deepening updrafts with increasing
   echo top heights on radar. The environment across south-central
   Arkansas and northern Louisiana is conditionally supportive of
   strong tornadoes, given sampling of 0-1 km SRH around 300-400 J/kg
   and large, curved hodographs at SHV and LZK. RAP analysis shows STP
   around 4-5 across this region over the next few hours. Should this
   line of developing storms continue to intensify, a risk for strong
   tornadoes will be possible especially if semi-discrete cells can
   become established. A watch may be needed within the hour if trends
   show continue development with increasing intensity.

 

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

WW0121 Radar

 

  

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 121
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   130 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and northern Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Southeastern Missouri

   * Effective this Wednesday morning from 130 AM until 900 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and depth in a
   plume of low-level lift well ahead of the cold front, across parts
   of Arkansas, with additional development possible.  The environment
   favors supercell potential and tornado risk with any convection that
   can root in the boundary layer on a sustained basis.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 70 miles south southwest of Batesville
   AR to 35 miles north northeast of Carbondale IL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

MD 475 graphic

  

Mesoscale Discussion 0475
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

   Valid 050703Z - 050830Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

   SUMMARY...A potential tornadic supercell corridor is beginning to
   focus from near Russellville northeastward into southeast MO (thru
   330am).  A strong tornado is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past hour has shown further
   intensification of storms over north-central AR with the stronger
   storms acquiring transient supercell characteristics.  Recent
   subjective surface mesoanalysis shows a moisture axis (upper 60s
   degree F dewpoints) extending from central AR north-northeastward
   into northern AR and immediately east of the ongoing storms.  The
   presence of moderate buoyancy (1800 J/kg MLCAPE per the Batesville,
   AR RAP-model forecast sounding) and strongly sheared low levels,
   will support the potential for longer-lived supercells with episodic
   strengthening of the low-level mesocyclone and tornado potential. 
   If one or more of the supercells continues to mature and strengthen,
   a strong tornado is possible.
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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted

PDS warning

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
231 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Fulton County in north central Arkansas...
  Northern Sharp County in north central Arkansas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.
    
* At 230 AM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  over Franklin, or 9 miles northeast of Melbourne, moving northeast
  at 50 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying 

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The Arkansas part of the Moderate Risk never quite overcame the cap.  Those storms would have had plenty of instability and vorticity.  I'm sure the people of Arkansas don't mind.  They've had enough of a tornado season to fill up a year.

Seems like the cap and the moisture mixing out really prevented yesterday/last night from being a LOT worse than it turned out to be.

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WhirlingWx

WhirlingWx

Posted
Posted

Think it's important to mention the deadly tornado in Bollinger County, MO, because I haven't seen any of that in here. 5 killed by that strong tornado (prelim high-end EF2) after 3 AM. Tragic and yet another example of how "it only takes one" despite the event technically not reaching its ceiling.

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