Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23

[schoeppeya]

Pretty apparent outflow boundary from the ongoing storms on visible. Surface obs showing north winds behind the boundary, could focus convergence as the warm front continues lifting north. 

[Malacka11]

Dude that cell near Rochelle was legit as it passed overhead. The greenest clouds I've ever seen, the whole sky was one writhing mass. One semi almost tipped over right in front of us, a mile down the road one was on its side. 

[Jackstraw]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just realized the core of this powerful storm is hitting Cyclone's house as I type.  He's probably getting golfball to baseball size hail right now.  He may be at work, though.  I hope he doesn't get too much damage.

Hope he brought his helmet to work 

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

That would be the result 90+% of the time.  If we are talking baseball sized hail like what is happening right now to the west of us then I am all for lake suppression.

The problem is you can’t totally discount hail north of the front.  The lake isn’t going to do anything to suppress elevated convection.  It will *probably* weaken for other reasons( stratiform precip diminishing the CAPE from above or more widespread but weaker cells due to competition ).  Hard to say though.  I can pass on the severe wind and hail, but I really want a good light show.

[frostfern]

I remember 2.25” hail in Allegan county after dark on 4-07-20.

[A-L-E-K]

30 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Dude that cell near Rochelle was legit as it passed overhead. The greenest clouds I've ever seen, the whole sky was one writhing mass. One semi almost tipped over right in front of us, a mile down the road one was on its side. 

cool shit malacka

[A-L-E-K]

always nice too see board member out having fun

[SolidIcewx]

 

SPC AC 041729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms posing a risk for strong tornadoes and large hail are expected in a corridor across eastern Illinois through Lower Michigan Wednesday, with organizing clusters or lines of storms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes across the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Recent water-vapor imagery continues to depict a robust upper wave over the central Rockies with an accompanying surface low noted in mid-morning surface observations across the central Plains. Guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of these features over the next 48 hours as the upper wave ejects into the Plains and the surface low tracks northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Wednesday. A trailing cold front is expected to impinge on a broad warm sector beginning late tonight as it migrates southeast through the Midwest, mid-MS River Valley, and TX Gulf coast through the day Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along much of the cold front, and more organized cells and/or clusters may persist into the afternoon hours given the strongly sheared environment and diurnal warming/destabilization. Locations that see weakening of early-morning convection will likely see re-intensification either along the cold or residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon. Given the broad warm sector (featuring 60+ F dewpoints) and strong flow over the region, organized convection appears likely across a large swath of the Midwest to south-central CONUS. One notable trend for this update is a westward shift in probabilities driven by a slower eastward progression of the synoptic wave/surface low that has consistently emerged in recent global and mesoscale guidance. ...IL to OH and lower MI... Confidence in the severe threat remains highest across portions of the Midwest. Open warm sector convection may be ongoing by 12 UTC across parts of eastern MO/IL and will propagate into parts of IN, OH, and lower MI through the day. Poleward moisture advection in the wake of morning convection will maintain a buoyant air mass prior to the frontal passage in the late morning/afternoon when a second round of storms appears likely. The combination of the mid-level jet max aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient winds will result in a strongly sheared environment featuring effective bulk shear values near 50s knots and 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. This kinematic environment will support a tornado threat, including the potential for a strong tornado, especially if more discrete storm modes can be realized (though it is unclear if boundary-relative storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors will be sufficient to maintain discrete modes given considerable along-boundary mean flow). Regardless, the strong low-level flow will support the potential for damaging to severe winds. ...Middle MS and lower OH River Valleys... Forcing for ascent along the middle MS and lower OH River Valleys is expected to diminish through the day as stronger synoptic ascent becomes increasingly displaced to the north/northeast. Strong flow aloft on the southern periphery of the jet max will support elongated hodographs, which when coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and residual ascent along the slowing cold front, will likely be favorable for semi-discrete cells to clusters with an attendant threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. ..Moore/Jewell..

[Malacka11]

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

always nice too see board member out having fun

Appreciate you big guy, hopefully I manage to find something worth posting

[hlcater]

mix mix mix

[tuanis]

Blanket warnings for the Chicago metro. Velocity scans not showing much in the way of winds per the warning text. Definitely several pockets of hail, especially west of the Elgin area and north of Rockford.

Edit: even getting the "giant hail" depiction per hydrometeor classification near Machesney Park (Rockford area). Let's keep that stuff away from here please.

[DaveNay]

Impressive precip rate with those storms south of DKB. We didn't even get a direct hit at the farm.

[Malacka11]

Up to five flipped semis now

[A-L-E-K]

12 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Blanket warnings for the Chicago metro. Velocity scans not showing much in the way of winds per the warning text. Definitely several pockets of hail, especially west of the Elgin area and north of Rockford.

Edit: even getting the "giant hail" depiction per hydrometeor classification near Machesney Park (Rockford area). Let's keep that stuff away from here please.

bring on the garden variety +

[A-L-E-K]

getting dark at the office

[Radtechwxman]

Up in DVN. I like that moisture looks to pool and have more depth near wf later. Not going to lie TP play west is very tempting out near DMX but afraid moisture may mix out bad there. But with such a strong low and wf nearby man. I do like that models continue to show development of storms in ne MO and track them up this way later. However, I am a bit worried they may just shoot north over wf and not turn right and take advantage of parameters. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Broad rotation on this cell north of Rockford 

[Malacka11]

12 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Best I can do right now

[andyhb]

Got a couple of cells going up SE of Kansas City. Lead shortwave appears to be impinging on the warm sector.

[A-L-E-K]

hella hail

[Malacka11]

6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Got a couple of cells going up SE of Kansas City. Lead shortwave appears to be impinging on the warm sector.

In terms of actual impact what would this mean?

[tuanis]

Pea size hail, heavy heavy downpour, zero minimal wind

[iBrian]

man, temps are wild right now.  near 90 in northwest missouri, 150 miles west it's 36.

[Chambana]

79/64 in the paign. 

[magoos0728]

I've never seen this much hail over such a long period of time. At least twenty minutes now with what I would call "pea sized hail showers."

 

Had golfballs living in Northwest Cobb County Georgia but never anything like this.

[Chicago916]

Tons of hail in Buffalo Grove right now. Ground is fully covered.

[cincy.wx]

DVN 18z sounding

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Flipped to hail then rain here. Precip will be winding down shortly, we stayed frozen longer then anticipated. Northern suburbs might stay almost totally frozen. Didn’t even get a rumble of thunder….

[A-L-E-K]

reflectivity spike just after crossing 94 in n burbs, stones for sure

[Malacka11]

In Iowa now. Just gonna have to wait and see.