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Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23


cheese007
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1 hour ago, Lightning said:

 

 

Really makes sense.  Day 2 events are so dependent around here on what happens during Day 1 to the west.   Seen way to many Day 2 events be nothing more a windy rain shower without even thunder.   Even the SPC noted the Great Lakes could impact it:

It remains unclear what effect the cooler marine layer from Lake
   Michigan has on adjacent coastal areas, particularly into portions
   of western Michigan. 

 

GRR talked about that in the overnight AFD also.  It will be interesting to see what if anything can develop near Lake Michigan.

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31 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

GRR talked about that in the overnight AFD also.  It will be interesting to see what if anything can develop near Lake Michigan.

Strong flow at 925 can mitigate negative effects over the lake.  If there's enough surface backing there can be some enhancement.  The southeastern side looks most favorable though.  I get the feeling there will be broken initiation along the lake breeze, like right along 131, that then fills in and grows as it moves east.

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7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just realized the core of this powerful storm is hitting Cyclone's house as I type.  He's probably getting golfball to baseball size hail right now.  He may be at work, though.  I hope he doesn't get too much damage.

If I'm not mistaken, he (Cyclone) is still out of town on vacation.

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First tor warn of the day?

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=DVN&wwa=tornado warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1016 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Whiteside County in northwestern Illinois...
  Northeastern Henry County in northwestern Illinois...
  Northwestern Bureau County in north central Illinois...

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 1016 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Spring Hill, or 17 miles northeast of
  Cambridge, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Hooppole, Yorktown and Leon Corners around 1030 AM CDT.
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30 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Strong flow at 925 can mitigate negative effects over the lake.  If there's enough surface backing there can be some enhancement.  The southeastern side looks most favorable though.  I get the feeling there will be broken initiation along the lake breeze, like right along 131, that then fills in and grows as it moves east.

see April 3 1956. multiple supercells went surface-based and tornadic the instant they crossed the lake. not saying tomorrow will be anything like that, but it is possible this time of year.

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6 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

see April 3 1956. multiple supercells went surface-based and tornadic the instant they crossed the lake. not saying tomorrow will be anything like that, but it is possible this time of year.

When I lived in Houghton off Lake Superior we had as variety of results due to Lake Superior influence.  

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I'll be unable to chase this afternoon/evening due to work, as I had a decision between chasing today or Friday, and chose Friday.

If I were able to, I would most definitely head out towards the IL/IA border, in anticipation of the afternoon/evening round of potential development in the vicinity of the warm front.

Might still attempt to make a play on this morning/midday round if it moves in quick enough, and looks to be producing quality damaging winds/hail still.

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17 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

see April 3 1956. multiple supercells went surface-based and tornadic the instant they crossed the lake. not saying tomorrow will be anything like that, but it is possible this time of year.

Definitely possible with the right setup.  The main issue is the warm front position though.  I think what mitigates things on this side of the state will be overnight convection slowing down the warm front rather than the lake.  I think surface based cells or a line will probably move in from the SW ( not affected by the lake at all ) and affect the SE part of the state regardless.  Have to see what happens tonight though with the elevated stuff. 

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Strong flow at 925 can mitigate negative effects over the lake.  If there's enough surface backing there can be some enhancement.  The southeastern side looks most favorable though.  I get the feeling there will be broken initiation along the lake breeze, like right along 131, that then fills in and grows as it moves east.

That would be the result 90+% of the time.  If we are talking baseball sized hail like what is happening right now to the west of us then I am all for lake suppression.

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Almost baseball size hail north of the warm front near I-80. That's pretty nasty considering the storm doesn't even seem that big, and the surface based CAPE is 0. VIL and reflectivity maxed out near Princeton, so that must be the region where the large hail developed.

 

almost a baseball north of the warm front.jpg

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