BuffaloWeather Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Should be good to go for chasing Wednesday. Was thinking of driving to around Toledo and awaiting rogue cells that form ahead of cf. Can go north or south based on what forms. Would anyone pick a different starting location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Interesting the HRRR still blows up that monster simulated supercell in IL tomorrow but the environment ahead of it is not really impressive...super mixed and with ho-hum low-level shear. I can't get a good sounding in proximity to it that both has impressive parameters and isn't contaminated. Also interesting that the globals (namely EURO) are more bullish on convection than the CAMs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 00z HRRR doin' me a concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 I wonder if the HRRR is still having those overmixing issues @andyhb mentioned and if so, at what point it will catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 FV3 still holds with a couple of good storms along the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: FV3 still holds with a couple of good storms along the border. i lol'd 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 NAM cool bias at play again? Just a real headscratcher how we have some models with hot temps/mixing issues and some with capping issues due to cool temps. It is quite dry at 700mb, though. Although I remember people saying dryness at 700mb was gonna be a problem on the Gilmore City day last April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Found the PDS on the NAM despite that hellacious inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 NAM cool bias at play again? Just a real headscratcher how we have some models with hot temps/mixing issues and some with capping issues due to cool temps. It is quite dry at 700mb, though. Although I remember people saying dryness at 700mb was gonna be a problem on the Gilmore City day last April.Easiest way to tell that's likely an issue is the super low T/Td spreads and saturated low levels indicating socked in stratus. If dew points get that high, highly unlikely 2m temps will only be 1-3F higher than Td. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 NSSL WRF also with a monstrous cell tracking from NE MO into W IL in the afternoon. Environment around it is stupidly high end. Edit: ARW too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 The RRFS looks a whole lot better too. Still west but with a whole squad of beefy discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 As someone that had 3 tornadoes within 12 miles of their home (and one 3 miles away) on Friday night, I’m hoping this can just be thunderstorms and nothing severe. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Gonna be an interesting choice on which side of the MS river to play on tomorrow. Gonna have to see how things look when I get off work. Encouraged to see the RRFS popping large sups now on the latest run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 These storms around 12z…any chance they lay a boundary that interacts with the warm front as it lifts north and fire storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: The RRFS looks a whole lot better too. Still west but with a whole squad of beefy discrete cells. They are all N of the warm front or quickly crossing it again. Will have to place yourself in the right spot because these will be elevated soon after forming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Hrrr definitely having major mixing issues tomorrow. Hoping that's overdone or kiss tornado threat goodbye. Dew points mix out terrible by late afternoon and RH just tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 So for Day 1 do we have 2 MODS, 1 big MOD, 1 HIGH & 1 MOD, or 2 HIGHS? I'll go with 2 MODS but will fully admit I thought the SPC HIGHS were an overreaction Friday. I wish I had been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 minute ago, brianc33710 said: So for Day 1 do we have 2 MODS, 1 big MOD, 1 HIGH & 1 MOD, or 2 HIGHS? I'll go with 2 MODS but will fully admit I thought the SPC HIGHS were an overreaction Friday. I wish I had been right. I'll go with two mods too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Long range 03z Rap popping some PDS Tor soundings in Chicago Wednesday morning. Something to monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 I don't think the CAMs have a lot of storms, if you exclude the FV3 monster storm near Chicago. (seriously, that's like a 10mile wide updraft helicity track. I mean, it could represent a realistic tornado threat that's not a super monster.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: I don't think the CAMs have a lot of storms, if you exclude the FV3 monster storm near Chicago. (seriously, that's like a 10mile wide updraft helicity track. I mean, it could represent a realistic tornado threat that's not a super monster.) Overall there’s very little discrete. The models that do have daytime convection tomorrow, it’s either linear or a multi-cell cluster. RAP, RRFS-A, HREF initiates discrete after sunset close to midnight. The tornado threat appears to be primarily nocturnal now. Early Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 For whatever reason, the warm front, as it lifts over central Indiana has me really intrigued . (also I think I found the tightest hodo for a PDS TOR Sounding) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 New CSU has a 30% hatched tornado area (high risk equivalent) for the IA/IL/MO triple point region tomorrow. Large 60% hatched hail and 45% hatched wind to accompany it centered on the same area. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Huge 10% hatched in the latest D2 for Wednesday, including some seriously large population centers. Chicago and east could get very interesting from early on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, andyhb said: Huge 10% hatched in the latest D2 for Wednesday, including some seriously large population centers. Chicago and east could get very interesting from early on Wednesday. They mention a possible upgrade could be needed and mention a potential for many sig tors. Could be a long day Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 The Wed map will quite possibly show considerably higher potential south into KY and TN in later versions. Dynamics look quite extreme even at this early stage, 25 C 850 mb readings in n TX, 110 knot 500 mb over n AZ and a surge northward of 20 C dew points into OK. I agree it looks to remain capped to near sunset but look out after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 So the HRRR has this massive mid level cloud deck yet still manages to mix out into the upper 50s. Nice model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Wednesday is really starting to look like a Major Severe Weather Outbreak. When the models started to slow the arrival of the front and short wave ejection, it was evident where we were going with this. The activity tomorrow, considering it initiates around or after sunset, will track east and lay down boundaries. Really be interesting to see if a cluster/MCS develops tomorrow night or early morning Wednesday. That tends to always happen the morning of a Major outbreak in the OH/TN Valleys and Great Lakes region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Latest hrrr runs aren't firing anything now till 0z and now only in Iowa. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 06z HRRR way west for Wednesday compared to 00z. Impressive overall environment in place by 14zish across the 39 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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