Severe Weather 4-4-23 and 4-5-23

[SolidIcewx]

8 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

what's up with the 00z HRRR for tomorrow? really diminishes the severe threat for MI compared to 18z.

It’s really depends on what convection goes on tomorrow morning along with cloud cover

[Lightning]

19 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I chased that elevated supercell about 30 minutes south of my house and barely reached shelter before hail up to golf ball size hit.  Nothing like sitting in the driving range!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjzXVitHSk8

Nice video of the hail.  Don't mind missing out on damage.  Just crazy though to go all the way from Iowa and die a few miles away MBY.   

[Lightning]

30 minutes ago, Cartier God said:

what's up with the 00z HRRR for tomorrow? really diminishes the severe threat for MI compared to 18z.

I have lived here too long.  That doesn't surprise me at all 

[RogueWaves]

3 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I have lived here too long.  That doesn't surprise me at all 

You remember Palm Sunday of '65? I thought that had an F4 up to E. Lansing area.

[wegoweather]

38 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Do storm chasers pay exorbitant auto insurance rates?

If insurance finds out how it happened, they may not cover it at all.

A chaser that was purposely driving into hail was laughing about driving a rental car on their stream.  Good chance they will have to pay the damage completely out of pocket if it's discovered what they were doing.

[Lightning]

Just now, RogueWaves said:

You remember Palm Sunday of '65? I thought that had an F4 up to E. Lansing area.

Sorry no.   I'm a 70s child with weather memories start about 1975-ish.  

[frostfern]

11 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Nice video of the hail.  Don't mind missing out on damage.  Just crazy though to go all the way from Iowa and die a few miles away MBY.   

I thought it was drying up as it come in from the lake, as the rest of the MCS around it was drying up, but then it caught a second wind and blew up again.  I'm happy I got a good spot under the canopy and the hail fell straight down rather than at an angle.

[Harry Perry]

00z HRRR shows a line of scattered crap-vection moving through around 9-10am just prior to fropa. Looks like the front has sped back up and clears the area by 2pm. Doesn’t look like much of a threat on that particular model around here. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

3 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

00z HRRR shows a line of scattered crap-vection moving through around 9-10am just prior to fropa. Looks like the front has sped back up and clears the area by 2pm. Doesn’t look like much of a threat on that particular model around here. 

The other 0Z models still have supercells before the front and are slower, the HRRR has been having a lot of issues today dealing with the warm front placement 

[Harry Perry]

12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The other 0Z models still have supercells before the front and are slower, the HRRR has been having a lot of issues today dealing with the warm front placement 

Ahh makes sense. Wonder how far north the warm front will lift, underperforming to our west I read. Been busy and haven’t checked other guidance yet but good to know that HRRR is a sando tonight. 

[Torchageddon]

20 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Ahh makes sense. Wonder how far north the warm front will lift, underperforming to our west I read. Been busy and haven’t checked other guidance yet but good to know that HRRR is a sando tonight. 

When has the wf overperformed around these parts (ie pushed further north than expected)? I got nothing for that its always under. I was going to ask the same some time ago about slower fronts but this event sort of did that; bucked the trend. Sando?

[RCNYILWX]

There's definitely a path in which tomorrow underperforms, but don't want to get too caught up in what the CAMs are showing. Since today didn't play out close to the expectations we had for it yesterday, more surprises are probably a decent bet.

Pattern and parameter space remain favorable for noteworthy severe, but the uncertain effects of overnight-early AM convection cast a good deal of uncertainty. Recent runs of the RAP continue to show a solid environment out ahead of the cold front in the late AM and early to mid afternoon.

Should overnight storms be less widespread, that would seem to be a point in favor of tomorrow living up to its potential closer to peak heating. On the other hand, can also envision scenarios in which overnight-early AM convection causes destructive interference...or the early AM storms are the main show out this way. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Harry Perry]

7 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

When has the wf overperformed around these parts (ie pushed further north than expected)? I got nothing for that its always under. I was going to ask the same some time ago about slower fronts but this event sort of did that; bucked the trend. Sando?

Yeah the baroclinic zone usually sets up along I-80 more often than not, something to do with the cold lakes? I’d be interested to find reasoning on why. 
 

Shit Sandwich = Sando 

[Malacka11]

The headlights on the left side of the road in the distance is my car. Turns out it wasn't a wide tornado like I thought, it was actually a little shit at that point and I'm even dumber than I initially figured.

[Roger Smith]

The slow evolution and continued feed of near-record warmth will set up most of IL for late night heavy and locally severe, and then that will just edge further east and probably peak in a strong moderate or even low end high risk outcome in IN-OH-KY-TN tomorrow. The low is moving north rather than northeast and there is little push on the cold front until mid-day or even mid-afternoon. I continue to expect this to ramp up into a very severe conclusion. A separate cluster from ne OK and w AR will move into s MO and w TN and merge with the northern complex during the late morning. 

[TheNiño]

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The headlights on the left side of the road in the distance is my car. Turns out it wasn't a wide tornado like I thought, it was actually a little shit at that point and I'm even dumber than I initially figured.

Glad you’re ok brother! You’re owning it and I appreciate you sharing. Hope you enjoy your fresh pair of underwear.

[cyclone77]

12 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just realized the core of this powerful storm is hitting Cyclone's house as I type.  He's probably getting golfball to baseball size hail right now.  He may be at work, though.  I hope he doesn't get too much damage.

Thanks Hawkeye.  We were very fortunate here to just barely miss that heaviest hail core, it passed just barely south of town.  

At work it got as dark as night and winds became pretty strong from the east as the storm approached.  Was sort of bizarre as I didn't think the storm was surface based, so why would there be strong inflow?  Come to find out later it planted a brief EF2 to our southwest in Colona with temps barely above 50!  That was a monster supercell to be sure.

EDIT:  Forgot to mention, we busted on our chase this evening lol.  Till next time...

[brianc33710]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

The headlights on the left side of the road in the distance is my car. Turns out it wasn't a wide tornado like I thought, it was actually a little shit at that point and I'm even dumber than I initially figured.

Well successfully tracking down a tornado that's just a little shit is better than no tornadoes at all lol. I remember 2013 when my apartment overlooked Tampa Bay I got a bunch of great waterspout pictures & videos. But my ex apparently deleted all of them from my Facebook without my permission (& a ton more). I only have 1 background picture that's 1/2 lightning strike & 1/2 waterspout left. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

A lot less convection on the map tonight than expected, could this boost todays severe threat? 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Day 1 out, 10% sig tor slightly trimmed back 

[hlcater]

Went out and saw quite literally nothing. Screwed by the Ft. Madison bridge crossing and not willing to core the baseball sized hail necessary to get ahead of the storm, just gave up and went home.

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

A lot less convection on the map tonight than expected, could this boost todays severe threat? 

I wish it were so simple 

I did just get a decent storm that I wasn't expecting 

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

A lot less convection on the map tonight than expected, could this boost todays severe threat? 

The warm front is takings its sweet old time despite little convection and a screaming low level jet.  Then GRR is talking about morning convection.  I don’t know where thats supposed to come from.  Looks like dry outflow moving across Wisconsin.  Hopefully it slows down.

 

Edit.  Welp.  Morning crapvection developing.

[Radtechwxman]

4 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

The headlights on the left side of the road in the distance is my car. Turns out it wasn't a wide tornado like I thought, it was actually a little shit at that point and I'm even dumber than I initially figured.

This is my chase partner's video. Ha. I was driving while he filmed. It was bigger before it got into town. I was flying to get out of the massive hail though. Briefly took shelter under this little building on outskirts of Table Grove but then the RFD really punched in and I didn't feel safe where we where. We pulled back out on east road and all of a sudden I heard it and here comes a cloud of debris. It was a small albeit pretty robust circulation. 

[Torchageddon]

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Day 1 out, 10% sig tor slightly trimmed back 

And I was taken completely out of the 10% tor hatched, I expected as much (now in 2%). Not impossible to get a strong twister here in early April but with this new climate its a crack dream.

CAMs showing another round of storms at 8am, then a big line early afternoon. I'm getting more thunder and rain just off the heels of an impressive storm. The cold lake Huron did nothing to inhibit the first storm cluster. My DP is literally 2C, the heat is on, I'm cold, and there is convection erupting everywhere. Generally that doesn't happen.

[Roger Smith]

I was living about 100 miles north of Toronto when the 1974 event happened, we had a moderate thunderstorm roll through about midnight (3rd-4th) with a temperature near 12 C. It then warmed up to about 20 C during the day (4th). As you probably know a tornado hit Windsor ON evening of 3rd and caused nine fatalities at a curling rink that collapsed. But beyond that I am not aware of any severe storm activity further into southwest Ontario that night. 

One tornado that might have been quite close to your location in April 1967 (a day where Chicago was hit badly) was about an F-2 and I vaguely recall there being one fatality from that, somewhere around Exeter and or Mitchell  ON. And more recently you'll maybe recall that extreme rainfall event on May 12, 2000. 

[Roger Smith]

Remarkable to see temps at 0400h CDT near 80F around eastern MO and southern IL. As that cluster of cells develops I think it's going to get very severe in eastern Illinois and west-central Indiana later this morning towards  0900h. BUF and south area might get hit by the leading wave moving across sw ON overnight. 

[Torchageddon]

11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I was living about 100 miles north of Toronto when the 1974 event happened, we had a moderate thunderstorm roll through about midnight (3rd-4th) with a temperature near 12 C. It then warmed up to about 20 C during the day (4th). As you probably know a tornado hit Windsor ON evening of 3rd and caused nine fatalities at a curling rink that collapsed. But beyond that I am not aware of any severe storm activity further into southwest Ontario that night. 

One tornado that might have been quite close to your location in April 1967 (a day where Chicago was hit badly) was about an F-2 and I vaguely recall there being one fatality from that, somewhere around Exeter and or Mitchell  ON. And more recently you'll maybe recall that extreme rainfall event on May 12, 2000. 

I don't know of anything off-hand from '67 but Mitchell is the tornado magnet of ON so its not surprising. I mention May 12, 2000 a lot for various reasons; namely it was a very extreme and unique system.

[frostfern]

Garden variety popcorn cluster just woke me up.  Holy crap was that loud.  I need more sleep.  Gonna be a rough day.  Insomnia is awful.

[A-L-E-K]

nice early am garden variety, feels like deep summer early this morning

shame about the miss east today