cheese007 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Sizeable 15% D7 out for next Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Might as well extend this into Monday and Tuesday as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Euro once again is a high end event for 4/4 (Tuesday). Massive trough with a wavelength of more than half the CONUS slams into a huge warm sector with mid-upper 60s dewpoints throughout. Other models definitely slowed so there is a bit of split now in the solutions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 30% D6 issued, with some pretty strong wording (understandably) for being that far out. Quote As the western trough ejects on Day 6/Tuesday, potential significant severe thunderstorms will be possible far eastern OK toward southeast MO and vicinity. Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place amid steep midlevel lapse rates courtesy of an EML advecting across the region from the Mexican Plateau. This will supply plenty of instability with stronger vertical shear accompanying the ejecting trough. There is some uncertainty among medium range guidance on the northern extent of better moisture return and hence severe potential. This is mostly driven by differences in surface low, dryline and warm front positions related to somewhat different ejection of the upper trough. However, guidance is in very good agreement with respect to the southern portion of the risk area. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, some potentially significant, will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 12Z GFS is a widespread outbreak type run. Been a while since I've seen anything like it. Perfect H5 Jet ejection, LLJ cranking across the entire warm sector with widespread 2500+ SBCAPE. Nuts. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 These are some of the most dangerous model solutions I've seen in a very long time within reasonable range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Put it this way, I would be in favor of moving Tuesday's thread to the main board if this place wasn't so poorly organized. Feel like both C/W and GL/OV are going to be involved in some manner here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Put it this way, I would be in favor of moving Tuesday's thread to the main board if this place wasn't so poorly organized. Feel like both C/W and GL/OV are going to be involved in some manner here.Each region has always had their own threads, so doesn’t matter much in the end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 30 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Each region has always had their own threads, so doesn’t matter much in the end. . I wish the mods could merge the threads from each sub, so it linked to the same place. Really mostly just applies to severe, but it's super annoying to keep up with two threads at once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 And it's not just the GFS. The UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF are all pretty robust. One thing that caught my eye was the minimal overnight junk convection in the warm sector. I mean it's definitely there with some models showing more than others, but it's modest relative to what is typical. We'll see if that trend continues. I was going through the GFS forecast soundings for Missouri, Nearly the entire state generates a PDS TOR sounding at least some time during the day or night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 this is our moment 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Seems like its been forever since I've seen a pattern like this in our area. Definitely since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Unbelievable run again. All of those are occurring in environments favorable for strong/violent tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Seems like its been forever since I've seen a pattern like this in our area. Definitely since 2011 Very active will be nice if it hold thru spring into early summer. Severe season going off with a bang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Unbelievable run again. All of those are occurring in environments favorable for strong/violent tornadoes. Probably one of the nuttiest runs I've seen out of a global for the MW since 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Probably one of the nuttiest runs I've seen out of a global for the MW since 2015 Now imagine if this was May/June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Just now, SolidIcewx said: Now imagine if this was May/June Lol you don't have to imagine it, there's 2000-4000 CAPE across the entire warm sector with tornadic supercell wind profiles. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: Lol you don't have to imagine it, there's 2000-4000 CAPE across the entire warm sector with tornadic supercell wind profiles. Wouldn’t the warmer temp profiles and dews in the 70s make this setup even more prolific if that were to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Forgive my amateur question pertaining to severe wx, but could this be the highest threat to the region since 4/27/11? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 I think I might be able to chase Weds if anyone here wants to meet up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chambana said: Forgive my amateur question pertaining to severe wx, but could this be the highest threat to the region since 4/27/11? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but... For IL you need to go back to 2013 for the most recent high risk outbreak. For MO you need to go back to 2006 for the most recent high risk outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chambana said: Forgive my amateur question pertaining to severe wx, but could this be the highest threat to the region since 4/27/11? I won't make any comparisons to such high end outcomes this far out, but the synoptics with this one are screaming major severe weather outbreak, to say the least. Still comes down to the mesoscale on the day of and day before, but the potential here is at a level rarely seen given the consensus from the 12z guidance. Putting it another way for the long-timers, back in the day, this would be a level of threat that @CUmet would come out of the woodwork for. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: I wish the mods could merge the threads from each sub, so it linked to the same place. Really mostly just applies to severe, but it's super annoying to keep up with two threads at once. Yeah a crossposting function for these overlapping threats would be nice. Like one thread but it's visible in two subforums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: Now imagine if this was May/June One of the few EF5 tornadoes that have struck Michigan happened on April 3rd, 1956 in Hudsonville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 This is a hell of a set up. From a chasing perspective, the storm motions will once again be a problem with storm speeds forecast in the 50-60 knot range on the forecast soundings. They look better along the warm front in Iowa, which is where I may end up if this setup holds together like the models currently show. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: This is a hell of a set up. From a chasing perspective, the storm motions will once again be a problem with storm speeds forecast in the 50-60 knot range on the forecast soundings. They look better along the warm front in Iowa, which is where I may end up if this setup holds together like the models currently show. . Ground speed will be a big issue if this or Friday’s setup drops something sig. A major wedge moving at 50+ mph would be wild and terrifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Ground speed will be a big issue if this or Friday’s setup drops something sig. A major wedge moving at 50+ mph would be wild and terrifying. Indeed. And these kinds of speeds are how you get long track tornadoes. A tornado can cover a lot of ground in 15-20+ minutes if it's moving 50-60 mph. In my experience, 50 mph is about the upper end of being able to chase. Once you get past that, it becomes extremely hard to keep up with the storm, especially if the storm isn't moving due east. It looks like storm speeds on Tuesday could be in the 55-70 mph range across a lot of the warm sector. A powerful jet streak is great until it starts cranking up the storm speeds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 6 hours ago, andyhb said: These are some of the most dangerous model solutions I've seen in a very long time within reasonable range. Yep, this is a pinnacle event as modeled right now. The potential is there to easily be a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, olafminesaw said: Where is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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