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Saturday, April 1, 2023 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems like you will definitely see more severe potential in your new spot , maybe even some chasing if it lines up with your free time .

Hudson valley seems like a nice spot in some set ups to camp out ..with some edibles ..laptop ..I could see you out there 

He is definitely in a better spot--at the very least he'll see some stronger storms before they hit Death Valley this season. That said, it's early, and I don't expect much today here. 

Around here my goal usually is to just get positioned well enough to get good lightning shots. Those have been hard to come by, but every so often I get a good one. 

ikayJjF.jpg

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on 

image.thumb.png.81af77949206841769e2155ac7cfb7ac.png

It does appear there is a trend on 13z and 14z to clear a bit quicker. Maybe we can develop a bit more instability, make this better orh on west. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He is definitely in a better spot--at the very least he'll see some stronger storms before they hit Death Valley this season. That said, it's early, and I don't expect much today here. 

Around here my goal usually is to just get positioned well enough to get good lightning shots. Those have been hard to come by, but every so often I get a good one. 

ikayJjF.jpg

Windsor, in general, also portions of Granby to Enfield, would appear to be great for that. You could run north south from Farmington up 10, then follow 202 through Simsbury, Avon all the way to Massachusetts. Gives you a very efficient way north and south. 

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2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

It does appear there is a trend on 13z and 14z to clear a bit quicker. Maybe we can develop a bit more instability, make this better orh on west. 

I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east.

If this moved up about four hours, would have been a hell of an event. 

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1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

If this moved up about four hours, would have been a hell of an event. 

It's possible, but what would really help is if we were able to sneak dews closer to 60 or like 60-61 like they'll get in NJ into SE NY. That's really the biggest discriminator in this IMO. 

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