yoda Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Great... @weatherwiz is going to run naked seeing that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Great... @weatherwiz is going to run naked seeing that We’ve seen enough of the models during “winter” to know they’re just there for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 HRRR pretty aggressive but not outlandish given shear/lapse rates and strength of shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR pretty aggressive but not outlandish given shear/lapse rates and strength of shortwave It looks like instability could be an issue though, especially if the line gets here late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It looks like instability could be an issue though, especially if the line gets here late? The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: The late timing is certainly a concern, especially as you move east across the state. Instability is certainly going to be limited due to marginal dewpoints, but steep mid-level lapse rates should help compensate some. I do think the greatest risk overall is going to be just to our west with rapid weakening across the state, but it’s possible dynamics may keep things going. Watch the steep low-level lapse rates as an aid in maintaining wind potential So normal for CT then. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Had a bright but distant flash of lightning on mile 4 this morning. It rained all the way from there to home the last mile. HRRR is wild tonight . Hope it’s right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Had a bright but distant flash of lightning on mile 4 this morning. It rained all the way from there to home the last mile. HRRR is wild tonight . Hope it’s right. Yep, heard a nice rumble of thunder around 6am or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Hey hey hey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hey hey hey Smoke weed every day? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 I do enjoy this weather. It's not boring. Marks the start of a new season. Spring will be great here compared to EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Morning rain and line moving through after 5 pm. #disappointing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Hopefully a few of these around SNE this evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Does the sun come out after this batch of rain pushes through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 32 minutes ago, radarman said: Does the sun come out after this batch of rain pushes through? It was around 1pm on the 0z hrrr. I'm about to look at this morning's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: It was around 1pm on the 0z hrrr. I'm about to look at this morning's. 6z was tame compared to 0z. But the 12z went a bit stronger again. Timing seems like we clear later now 3/4pm. That's not as good for severe, but it should be watched because of the steep lapse rates. That should help feed any activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Hrrr doesn't look that impressive outside of far western portions of MA and CT. But it should be a widespread strong line of storms. Maybe a few warnings mixed in. Outside chance of a spin up far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 High res NAM wasn’t too impressive either. It’s kinda early for good severe here, so we’ll see what kind of instability we can get today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 NAM flaccid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 34 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Hrrr doesn't look that impressive outside of far western portions of MA and CT. But it should be a widespread strong line of storms. Maybe a few warnings mixed in. Outside chance of a spin up far west. This could basically be a sticky for the entire severe weather “season” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 First and failed of the season... ... 'least we're spot on climatology, then We should create a thread, similar to the perpetuity and purpose of the 'lawn and garden' thread, only title it, "SNE failing convection," because the remarkable dependency of that is a climatology in itself - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: First and failed of these season... ... 'least we're spot on climatology, then We should create a thread, similar to the perpetuity and purpose of the 'lawn and garden' thread, only title it, "SNE failing convection," because the remarkable dependency of that is a climatology in itself - The fail rate seems high but I think as usual western areas are still in the game , and eastern areas never really were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 NWS Box not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The fail rate seems high but I think as usual western areas are still in the game , and eastern areas never really were NJ/NYC area look good. But definitely western areas should watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 HRRR is wild into RI and E MA. Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 13z HRRR is similar to previous runs. It likes western CT, particularly south of 84 to 91/New Haven. Further north it's strong but it's not highlighting that area as much. Storms are largely decaying as they cross CT, marching East. In terms of severe at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 13z HRRR is similar to previous runs. It likes western CT, particularly south of 84 to 91/New Haven. Further north it's strong but it's not highlighting that area as much. Storms are largely decaying as they cross CT, marching East. In terms of severe at least. Seems like you will definitely see more severe potential in your new spot , maybe even some chasing if it lines up with your free time . Hudson valley seems like a nice spot in some set ups to camp out ..with some edibles ..laptop ..I could see you out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems like you will definitely see more severe potential in your new spot , maybe even some chasing if it lines up with your free time . Hudson valley seems like a nice spot in some set ups to camp out ..with some edibles ..laptop ..I could see you out there You know it. Majority of setups aren't worth it. This is definitely not one I'm moving for lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Looks like dry slit is more impressive with clear skies which will destabilize more. SPC upping the ante for WOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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