FXWX Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Two PDS watches coming as well yep... hopefully we get through this without a big hit, but it certainly looks worrisome and falls close to the dates of a couple of historic events... Aprol,4-6??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, FXWX said: yep... hopefully we get through this without a big hit, but it certainly looks worrisome and falls close to the dates of a couple of historic events... Aprol,4-6??? The HRRR has been trending more and more aggressive which is not a good sign. I know one concern I had against a large-scale widespread outbreak was a "dirty" warm sector but the warm sector is full of breaks. The RAP (using mesoanalysis) is developing widespread 2,000 J MLCAPE and > 200-250 J of 3km CAPE. That is very scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 There may even be snow showers early tomorrow morning in the same places as the tornado watch is in currently..Always found that fascinating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The HRRR has been trending more and more aggressive which is not a good sign. I know one concern I had against a large-scale widespread outbreak was a "dirty" warm sector but the warm sector is full of breaks. The RAP (using mesoanalysis) is developing widespread 2,000 J MLCAPE and > 200-250 J of 3km CAPE. That is very scary Still a bit dirty, but the overall setup is very dynamic; wind speeds at multiple levels are at or above levels noted in some of the nastiest of outbreaks... just a quick glance at the SPC meso composite page shows almost all tornado parameters, even their violent tornado composite, covering huge areas... of course, this does not mean it has to happen, but high concern is warranted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Still a bit dirty, but the overall setup is very dynamic; wind speeds at multiple levels are at or above levels noted in some of the nastiest of outbreaks... just a quick glance at the SPC meso composite page shows almost all tornado parameters, even their violent tornado composite, covering huge areas... of course, this does not mean it has to happen, but high concern is warranted... Agreed, sometimes it's too easy to get caught up with these composites and parameters. Basically, just shows that if mature enough updrafts can materialize they have a ton to work with. I almost can't get over the HRRR...it's like a QLCS line of supercells (and multiple of them). The storm motions are through the roof too which is not good. People will have very little time to react and get to safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed, sometimes it's too easy to get caught up with these composites and parameters. Basically, just shows that if mature enough updrafts can materialize they have a ton to work with. I almost can't get over the HRRR...it's like a QLCS line of supercells (and multiple of them). The storm motions are through the roof too which is not good. People will have very little time to react and get to safety. Agree on all... sometimes you can get all the ingredients and the cake still doesn't get baked; all you can do is point out the worry and hope for the best in terms of life and property. Although the way this severe weather season has started out for the country, I wouldn't bet against another big / bad outcome... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 How does this potential today compare/not compare to say 2011 in terms of possible severity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 woohoooo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 41 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: How does this potential today compare/not compare to say 2011 in terms of possible severity? ehhh kind of a loaded question. I'm not a huge fan of comparing events, but certainly given the potential today holds, this could be a very bad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: woohoooo Damaging ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 52 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: How does this potential today compare/not compare to say 2011 in terms of possible severity? Given that 4/27/2011 was a top 3 day or something, it's just about impossible to expect that kind of an outbreak in advance. Let's hope it doesn't amount to that at any rate. 5/24/2011 was another huge day (see my avatar) and this could be up there with that one, although a much different set up obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Funnel cloud spotted with the cell headed towards LIT. Maybe they'll report funnel in the METAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Also for tomorrow SNE tor risk has been upgraded: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 This was the first double high risk area since 4/14/12 A lot of tornadoes that day, but I vaguely recall folks considering it a minor bust. I chased the tail end of the dryline in SW which was always very low probability of producing, and sure enough it didn't produce. But I was out there anyway so NBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 A 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 speaking of... 90/90 tornado probs in the PDS watch... that's 4/27/11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damaging ! Not expecting anything here, but hope you central/western folk can cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 The RAP with 300-350 J of 3km CAPE across eastern IA/IL border later on...that is insane given the shear parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Hopefully we can get some sun tomorrow, wish we could just clear it out regionwide and bust temps way low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Long track TOR there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Pretty absurd day already shaping up. NWS Little Rock might have just taken a direct hit. Cell approaching Peoria is insane looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Flipped over to the Midwest part of the site and someone posted a link to one of the Little Rock TV stations. It’s not good when they are doing their weather updates and you can hear sirens in the background. https://www.thv11.com/video/news/live_breaking/tornado-coverage-with-tom-brannon-nathan-scott/91-534cfb90-200a-4ceb-9287-357b7c328474 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Thinking the potential is there to generate between 400 and 800 J/KG of Cape. While that is a lot...we have extreme jet dynamics with Bulk shear values on the order of 50 to 60 knots. In addition...steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/KM will be advecting into the region...which is usually a missing ingredient in southern New England. While the severe weather threat is conditional depending on how much instability we can generate...some of the machine learning probs from the NCAR ensembles and Colorado State show some potential. The main threat will be strong to damaging straight line wind gusts...but some hail is possible given the steep mid level lapse rates. In fact...even a low risk for a tornado given ample 0-1 KM helicity. Greatest risk for severe weather would be across interior southern New England...but can/t rule out areas further east given strong jet dynamics. If this does happen...thinking more of a late show between 5 and 11 pm Saturday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Can't rule it out. quite a "show" tonight, does give some cred to more than typical potential tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I can’t even remember a previous severe threat around here in April but we did get a legit severe storm in Feb a few years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 The March 13 2012? Tippy route 2 supercell was fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 this is my video btw. Around 10 minutes later we had a +CG around 100 feet away 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 This looks like a reasonable threat for new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Weenie approved HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now