TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:15 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like dry slit is more impressive with clear skies which will destabilize more. SPC upping the ante for WOR Expand Like 1-3pm out far west for clearing. 3pm-5pm middle of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:17 PM, TalcottWx said: Like 1-3pm out far west for clearing. 3pm-5pm middle of the state. Expand Put some gas in the tank , Have an excuse ready and make sure to be back for Final 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:09 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems like you will definitely see more severe potential in your new spot , maybe even some chasing if it lines up with your free time . Hudson valley seems like a nice spot in some set ups to camp out ..with some edibles ..laptop ..I could see you out there Expand He is definitely in a better spot--at the very least he'll see some stronger storms before they hit Death Valley this season. That said, it's early, and I don't expect much today here. Around here my goal usually is to just get positioned well enough to get good lightning shots. Those have been hard to come by, but every so often I get a good one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:25 PM, weatherwiz said: mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on Expand It does appear there is a trend on 13z and 14z to clear a bit quicker. Maybe we can develop a bit more instability, make this better orh on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:27 PM, WxWatcher007 said: He is definitely in a better spot--at the very least he'll see some stronger storms before they hit Death Valley this season. That said, it's early, and I don't expect much today here. Around here my goal usually is to just get positioned well enough to get good lightning shots. Those have been hard to come by, but every so often I get a good one. Expand Windsor, in general, also portions of Granby to Enfield, would appear to be great for that. You could run north south from Farmington up 10, then follow 202 through Simsbury, Avon all the way to Massachusetts. Gives you a very efficient way north and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:29 PM, TalcottWx said: It does appear there is a trend on 13z and 14z to clear a bit quicker. Maybe we can develop a bit more instability, make this better orh on west. Expand I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:34 PM, weatherwiz said: I mean I think we're capped on what we can achieve instability wise regardless. Maybe stronger heating yields a couple hundred more J of CAPE. But if we can get temps to climb into the mid or even upper 60's with dews into the mid 50's under 7-7.5 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, given the shear parameters and shortwave forcing, that is more then enough to keep a line into western sections. This will probably weaken with eastward extent some b/c instability will wane with loss of heating, but dynamics should keep an isolated damaging wind gust threat farther east. Expand If this moved up about four hours, would have been a hell of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:40 PM, TalcottWx said: If this moved up about four hours, would have been a hell of an event. Expand It's possible, but what would really help is if we were able to sneak dews closer to 60 or like 60-61 like they'll get in NJ into SE NY. That's really the biggest discriminator in this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:25 PM, weatherwiz said: mid-level lapse rates really steepen through the day. Very impressive dry slot behind these rain and clouds. This will be fun for western sections later on Expand We take trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: We take trees down Expand Our neighbor is having the pine tree taken down April 17. Hopefully mother nature does that for them today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 12z HRRR looked potent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:53 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: 12z HRRR looked potent Expand As opposed to impotent? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:56 PM, Ginx snewx said: As opposed to impotent? Expand Cialis ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:53 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: 12z HRRR looked potent Expand West of the river deal; if this rain and clouds don’t clear here in eastern sections we see some showers and a gust of wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:15 PM, Modfan2 said: West of the river deal; if this rain and clouds don’t clear here in eastern sections we see some showers and a gust of wind. Expand The clearing looks legit. Might be able to salvage a solid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:18 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The clearing looks legit. Might be able to salvage a solid afternoon. Expand Clouds breaking across western CT! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:18 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The clearing looks legit. Might be able to salvage a solid afternoon. Expand Can't get any more legit then this Hopefully we can get something like this with an EML in a few months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Clearing appears to be ahead of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 3:46 PM, weatherwiz said: Our neighbor is having the pine tree taken down April 17. Hopefully mother nature does that for them today. Expand Let’s F’ing go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:22 PM, weatherwiz said: Can't get any more legit then this Hopefully we can get something like this with an EML in a few months Expand Yeah, usually we’re talking about clearing and it means scattered cumulus lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 Huge enhanced for wind!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:41 PM, weatherwiz said: Huge enhanced for wind!! Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:53 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Expand Now that's impressive. We hope for some spillover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:53 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Expand Where do you go for the regional view? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Temp shot up to 52f here from 41f. Clouds starting to break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:57 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Where do you go for the regional view? Expand SPC twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 4:59 PM, TalcottWx said: Temp shot up to 52f here from 41f. Clouds starting to break. Expand 57/56 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 4/1/2023 at 5:01 PM, WxWatcher007 said: 57/56 here. Expand 54f now. Looks like we break out 1:45-2:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 Already getting CU's to pop up in the dry slot of PA. Want to watch any cells that develop initially for TOR potential (obviously talking about west of our region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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