weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Well the official start to severe season is just over a month away, but that doesn't mean we can't get some strong convective threats prior to then. Through the day, an area of surface low pressure moves across southeast Canada with a warm front lifting northward across southern New England and a trailing cold front moving east across New York and Pennsylvania. During the morning, rain and embedded thunderstorms move across the region, then we dry out a bit and become mostly cloudy with temperatures climbing into the 50's and 60's with dewpoints climbing into the 50's. Mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/KM are also expected to overspread the region. The presence of these steep lapse rates will help contribute to several hundred joules of mixed-layer CAPE Saturday afternoon ahead of the front with strong dynamics. While there is an abundance of dry air throughout the column, enough convergence is expected along the front to help aid in the development of a line of rain and thunderstorms. Embedded damaging wind gusts and hail are possible within the strongest cores!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Finally some exciting wx to track! It's been so long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Damage! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Been watching this one for a few days, the GFS has been relatively consistent with a potential severe event... In fact I almost asked about Saturday in the other thread, but thankfully controlled that impulse. I mean sure the numbers look good, at the moment - or at least they still did last night when I looked at it in detail. But it's Southern New England (sigh), and I've learned the hard way never to get my hopes up. But yeah, by all means lets start a thread and watch what happens. It couldn't hurt... Could it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 The way to do it. From 30" snow to severe in 2 weeks. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Whineminster said: The way to do it. From 30" snow to severe in 2 weeks. Perfect. This is the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Lets do this. Need to pressure wash the treatment from last nights "squall" off the roads! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 Could be a decent little swath of wind damage. Decent llvl CAPE and not only are mlvl lapse rates pretty steep, helping to boost instability, but llvl lapse rates are pretty steep too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 If we end up with severe even up in our parts then I can only imagine what the folks in the Midwest are going to be dealing with tomorrow… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 It looks pretty good for strong winds into western areas including VT. Even some good low level shear. Quick spin? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 LFG!! We damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: LFG!! We damage Go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Go west. Horace Greeley must have been a meteorologist in these parts too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Go west. Good spot here. Really anyone west of ORH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 You gotta spin to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Uh oh, I'm gonna be in Manchester, NH, for a 4pm lacrosse game. Will I end up in The Land of Oz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Happy Severe Season!!!!! Should have been countdown to April 1 and not May 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 The new moderate risk area for today is insane. Can’t recall anything that extensive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: The new moderate risk area for today is insane. Can’t recall anything that extensive HRRR has multiple lines of superells along with some QLCS. Going to be really ugly if that verifies. Some pretty big cities in this area too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: The new moderate risk area for today is insane. Can’t recall anything that extensive that's a helluva hatched area... for all 3 hazards 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 From someone relatively new to tracking severe weather, would an extremely severe event/positive bust in the midwest/TV increase the chances for strong thunderstorms or potential tornadic activity here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, tiger_deF said: From someone relatively new to tracking severe weather, would an extremely severe event/positive bust in the midwest/TV increase the chances for severe weather here? No...I don't believe there really is a correlation between what happens there and what happens here. There are many reasons for this, but one striking one is just the atmospheric profile. That region is prone to high-end severe weather events because of the elevated mixed-layer, which tends to weaken with eastward extent. Some say there is a connection between what happens in Michigan the day before but I think that is voodoo. That just came about b/c of 1953. I mean I guess you could look at our "bigger" events and then see what happened in Michigan the day before but I think it's a unrelated-correlation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Looks like parts of that moderate zone are being upgraded to high risk very soon per posts in the Midwest thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Looks like parts of that moderate zone are being upgraded to high risk very soon per posts in the Midwest thread Scary wording Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Scary wording Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023 It just doesn’t get any scarier than that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 HOLY CRAP TWO AREAS Mesoscale Discussion 0391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 311544Z - 311745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will increase this afternoon. PDS Tornado Watch issuance is eventually expected for parts of the region. DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across parts of AR this morning, within a plume of rich low-level moisture and along the periphery of a lead shortwave moving across eastern portions of the central Plains. Additional convective development has been noted recently into southeast OK and northeast TX. Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating to some extent, but gradual warming amid increasingly rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range and weakening MLCINH with time. Area VWPs already depict very favorable wind profiles, with strong low-level (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear (effective shear of 60+ kt) expected to persist through the day. Tornadic supercells are expected to eventually evolve across the region this afternoon, with a few longer-lived supercells capable of producing strong/intense tornadoes possible, especially across AR toward the MS Valley. Onset timing of the greater threat remains somewhat uncertain, but one or more Tornado Watches will be required by early afternoon, with PDS Tornado Watch issuance expected across parts of AR toward the MS Valley. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: No...I don't believe there really is a correlation between what happens there and what happens here. There are many reasons for this, but one striking one is just the atmospheric profile. That region is prone to high-end severe weather events because of the elevated mixed-layer, which tends to weaken with eastward extent. Some say there is a connection between what happens in Michigan the day before but I think that is voodoo. That just came about b/c of 1953. I mean I guess you could look at our "bigger" events and then see what happened in Michigan the day before but I think it's a unrelated-correlation. But still got to wonder if there's not a "spillover" effect where extreme and repeating patterns of tornado outbreaks in the Midwest and South such as seem to be setting up this year might increase the chances for anomalous severe weather outbreaks in our region when conditions become climatologically favorable (late spring). 1995 (Great Barrington) was nationally, a very active year. 1973 (West Stockbridge) was according to Wikipedia, the most active tornadic year across the Midwest and South to that time. Of course much fresher in memory is 2011 and the extreme outbreaks across the South and Midwest that preceded June 1 here in Western Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, Hailstoned said: But still got to wonder if there's not a "spillover" effect where extreme and repeating patterns of tornado outbreaks in the Midwest and South such as seem to be setting up this year might increase the chances for anomalous severe weather outbreaks in our region when conditions become climatologically favorable (late spring). 1995 (Great Barrington) was nationally, a very active year. 1973 (West Stockbridge) was according to Wikipedia, the most active tornadic year across the Midwest and South to that time. Of course much fresher in memory is 2011 and the extreme outbreaks across the South and Midwest that preceded June 1 here in Western Massachusetts. It is certainly possible. If the upper air pattern favors the advection of elevated mixed-layers (and for them to maintain their integrity) into our region then we'll certainly see our higher end severe events. This was the case in 1995 (as you said) as well as 1998. 2011 was also like this to an extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 HIGH RISK zone to be added to a portion of today's tornado risk area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: HIGH RISK zone to be added to a portion of today's tornado risk area... Two PDS watches coming as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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