Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

So far, the 2016-16 through 2024-25 period is running notably warmer than had been suggested by the climate models (9-year mean: 38.5°).

I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set.

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

[MJO812]

Joe Bastardi

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set.

Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average.
 

 

NYC

Feb 24…+4.2

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

…………..+4.3

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

I suspect that the marine heatwaves have skewed things warmer than might otherwise have occurred in their absence. It will be interesting to see how the coming winter and future ones this decade fare relative to the climate model forecasts.

[donsutherland1]

The last two winters were among the 10 worst in New York City when the combination of warmth and lack of snowfall was considered. It remains to be seen where Winter 2024-2025 will fall, but I suspect that it won't rank as badly as the last two winters.

[Stormlover74]

Anyone see the comet?

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that the marine heatwaves have skewed things warmer than might otherwise have occurred in their absence. It will be interesting to see how the coming winter and future ones this decade fare relative to the climate model forecasts.

The 38.5° NYC average over the last 9 years was a little warmer than the DCA 1981-2010 winter average of 38.2°.

 

https://ggweather.com/normals/DC81.html

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 38.5° NYC average over the last 9 years was a little warmer than the DCA 1981-2010 winter average of 38.2°.

 

https://ggweather.com/normals/DC81.html

 

That's remarkable.

[Will - Rutgers]

two straight months of nice weather almost every day, and an aurora

maybe they do have a weather machine

[Will - Rutgers]

i made this on thursday night in bedminster with forkyfork

[Stormlover74]

If i could control the weather there would be some signs

[GaWx]

On 8/30/2024 at 2:40 PM, GaWx said:

I hope he holds onto his forecast this time and doesn’t bail to Wx Bell marketing and weenie related pressure. It is weaker than model consensus has it at this time, but Nino 3.4 has finally been steadily cooling recently with the help of a +SOI (finally). Also, keep in mind that the equivalent RONI is already near -0.7, solidly into weak Niña. It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a moderate RONI based peak.

Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well).

Old one (8/22/24):

 

New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast:

 

@donsutherland1

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i made this on thursday night in bedminster with forkyfork

You and forky, Will, could also make for interesting viewing. As always ….

 

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well).

Old one (8/22/24):

 

New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast:

 

@donsutherland1

That’s a pretty dramatic cooling.

[Stormlover74]

[cardinalland]

never been the biggest fan of apple maps, but i gotta admit this feature is pretty cool.

[BxEngine]

Headed up to niagara falls this weekend. Anyone been recently? Good stuff to see? (Shutup  @Rjay)

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Headed up to niagara falls this weekend. Anyone been recently? Good stuff to see? (Shutup  @Rjay)

I highly doubt that you will go across the Southern Tier but I was up in Buffalo this week for a conference and drove that way. Some really nice colors in the hill towns south and east of Buffalo. 

[donsutherland1]

On 10/13/2024 at 1:44 PM, GaWx said:

Like clockwork and even earlier than I expected, predictable JB has just cooled his Nov-Mar forecast. Warning: this may just be a baby step on the way to more cooling…we’ll see. In 2020-21, he also had an initially mild E US that he drastically cooled in November. He has since at least 2014-5 not had a mild FINAL cold season forecast as 20-21’s was changed to NN (which in all fairness verified pretty well).

Old one (8/22/24):

 

New one (10/8/24): ~1F cooler from +2 to +1 in NE Megapolis, which isn’t trivial as +1 is NN to me meaning he’s ditched his somewhat mild NE fcast:

 

@donsutherland1

Here's the type of post that makes the 2020 era Joe Bastardi dissatisfying: He knows that his forecast has changed and then he goes back to the one that has been replaced. He did a similar thing last year, dropping analogs that were in his final winter forecast and adding some analogs that weren't part of it showing a warm December to suggest that his forecast was on track.