Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[MJO812]

Happy October 1

[Dark Star]

22 hours ago, FPizz said:

Has nothing to do with it.  Move on, it isn't 2012 anymore.  They make new normals for a reason.  It would be funny on the news if they said today's normal high is 75, but if were living in 1950, it would 72.  

I'm beating a dead horse, but if we only use the previous 20 years as the current average, shouldn't we only use the same set to base our minimum/maximum record temperatures on?

[Dark Star]

19 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The whole winter was essentially waiting for a good pattern-went from late Dec to mid Jan-finally shows up but craps out after a week-then another long wait and we got 5 cold days in Feb then that was it...

Exactly.

[FPizz]

34 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm beating a dead horse, but if we only use the previous 20 years as the current average, shouldn't we only use the same set to base our minimum/maximum record temperatures on?

I say we use all the years, not just 30.  Not sure why we even do that.  If we have all the data, use it all.  

[cardinalland]

i've recently gotten into running and so at least i can look forward to many months of my ideal running weather ahead (35-55F)

[EastonSN+]

On 9/30/2024 at 10:15 AM, Brian5671 said:

Who is in denial about a warming climate at this stage?  Even JB says we are warming up.

Yeah. I have not heard anyone say it's not warmer out. 

I think the argument is more about whether stronger storms, and therefore higher snowfall events, can compensate for shorter seasons/less events. That is still open for debate. We are still in line, strictly snowfall average wise, with 1970 through 1999 (comparing 2020/2021 to now). Amazing to think that period had only 4 above average snowfall years in a 30 year stretch despite the frigid 70s, however larger events.......

[forkyfork]

56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah. I have not heard anyone say it's not warmer out. 

I think the argument is more about whether stronger storms, and therefore higher snowfall events, can compensate for shorter seasons/less events. That is still open for debate. We are still in line, strictly snowfall average wise, with 1970 through 1999 (comparing 2020/2021 to now). Amazing to think that period had only 4 above average snowfall years in a 30 year stretch despite the frigid 70s, however larger events.......

i think most in this subforum would do backflips for a month like january 1985. normal snow with temp departure around -8f

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah. I have not heard anyone say it's not warmer out. 

I think the argument is more about whether stronger storms, and therefore higher snowfall events, can compensate for shorter seasons/less events. That is still open for debate. We are still in line, strictly snowfall average wise, with 1970 through 1999 (comparing 2020/2021 to now). Amazing to think that period had only 4 above average snowfall years in a 30 year stretch despite the frigid 70s, however larger events.......

Sooner or later the warming climate will win out against the tendency for bigger storms. Hopefully the constant background Nina and -PDO state can reverse soon and we get back into a favorable pattern. We see how cold the upper Plains and NW can still get, so it’s still around but it can’t get here in a sustained way. But that “balance line” where warmer climate overcomes the bigger storms tendency is creeping north and probably already went north of DC which is in a long term decline (although that might also be due to fewer Miller A type storms and more big offshore Miller B storms that can nail our area). 

[TheClimateChanger]

44 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think most in this subforum would do backflips for a month like january 1985. normal snow with temp departure around -8f

Beautiful month... a bit dry though. I would say snowfall was actually probably somewhat above normal - maybe 10 to 12 inches if measured today. They didn't inflate their snow totals like we do today either. If 4 inches fell, 4 inches was on the ground. If 1.5 inches fell, 1.5 inches was on the ground [and rounded up to 2"].

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Beautiful month... a bit dry though. I would say snowfall was actually probably somewhat above normal - maybe 10 to 12 inches if measured today. They didn't inflate their snow totals like we do today either. If 4 inches fell, 4 inches was on the ground. If 1.5 inches fell, 1.5 inches was on the ground [and rounded up to 2"].

And we also weren't spoiled by KUs every winter like in the 2000s and 2010s. We were used to cold and dry with small storms but longer periods of snow cover and it felt like winter (imagine a high temp of 9)

[EastonSN+]

49 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think most in this subforum would do backflips for a month like january 1985. normal snow with temp departure around -8f

I personally hate the cold, give me 32 and heavy snow.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I personally hate the cold, give me 32 and heavy snow.

a high of 32 is below average at any point in winter. we need cold for snow

[Dark Star]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

a high of 32 is below average at any point in winter. we need cold for snow

 

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

a high of 32 is below average at any point in winter. we need cold for snow

True, however seen many storms start out 34 and wet bulb downward (March 2019). I think generally 2021/2022 is a good blueprint on how to succeed. Perhaps 17/18 is a better example given the historically warm February that included a snow storm in that same timeframe. Even Raleigh NC still gets snow, albeit less often. I get that 1977 is highly unlikely if not impossible, however I hold out hope that we can still at the very least least match the 1970 to 1999 snowfall average with this new set-up. 

Yeah warming will eventually win out, unless a successful environmental engineering endeavor remedies the issue beforehand.

 

[MJO812]

[Nibor]

 

 

[donsutherland1]

New ECMWF Winter 2024-2025 Forecast:

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New ECMWF Winter 2024-2025 Forecast:

Disaster

[WX-PA]

40 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disaster

It looks warm but here's the problem with these 3 month weather forecasts. It says 1-2 degrees above normal temps for the winter as a whole, if correct. Doesn't mean it's going to be warm all the time..and yes guess what?..it could be wrong!...First lets get 3-7 day forecasts correct. No model can see ahead 2 months in advance. I hope we can look back on this post and say I told you so!  If not it saves on heating bills lol.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

It looks warm but here's the problem with these 3 month weather forecasts. It says 1-2 degrees above normal temps for the winter as a whole, if correct. Doesn't mean it's going to be warm all the time..and yes guess what?..it could be wrong!...First lets get 3-7 day forecasts correct. No model can see ahead 2 months in advance. I hope we can look back on this post and say I told you so!  If not it saves on heating bills lol.

+1 to +2 is in line with most forecasts and most of our recent winters. Probably even cooler than the last 2

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New ECMWF Winter 2024-2025 Forecast:

I’m more concerned with Alaska being cold. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Disaster

But not as warm as the past two winters if these numbers verify.

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m more concerned with Alaska being cold. 

I agree. It's difficult to have a cold winter down here when Alaska is also cold.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m more concerned with Alaska being cold. 

 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

But not as warm as the past two winters if these numbers verify.

Alaska below normal we are going to be 4 to 6 above normal

[IrishRob17]

What sites are folks using to upload photos here these days? I've tried all the old tricks to be able to upload a photo this morning with no luck, the file size still comes up as too big. I have plenty of room in my attachments folder so it's not that. 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

What sites are folks using to upload photos here these days? I've tried all the old tricks to be able to upload a photo this morning with no luck, the file size still comes up as too big. I have plenty of room in my attachments folder so it's not that. 

Usually I have no issue if I delete old attachments but some photos are definitely too big.  I think doing a screenshot works

[IrishRob17]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Usually I have no issue if I delete old attachments but some photos are definitely too big.  I think doing a screenshot works

Yeah, screenshots usually work for me too but not today for some reason.

edit: I just took a different photo and the screenshot of it worked. I dunno. It's in the NW thread. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

What sites are folks using to upload photos here these days? I've tried all the old tricks to be able to upload a photo this morning with no luck, the file size still comes up as too big. I have plenty of room in my attachments folder so it's not that. 

What a joke

[Rjay]

57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Usually I have no issue if I delete old attachments but some photos are definitely too big.  I think doing a screenshot works

Site forces people to delete and makes every old thread a sad experience 

[donsutherland1]

With the seasonal guidance currently suggesting yet another milder than normal winter, it's worth looking at how things have compared with climate model forecasts (RCP 4.5 scenario) for New York City:

Since 1999-2000, just two winters had mean temperatures of 32.0° or below: 2002-03 (31.2°) and 2014-15 (31.7°). Winter 2014-15's average was largely the result of an extraordinarily cold February (23.9°, 3rd coldest on record). Overall, the return time for freezing or subfreezing winters during the 2000s has been once every 12.5 years. During the 1869-1999 period, the return time was once every 3.0 years. During the 1950-1999 period, the return time had increased to once every 5.6 years.

The trend of lengthening return times for very cold winters (DJF mean temperature of 32° or below) is also seen in the base normal periods. During 1961-1990, such winters occurred once every 4.3 years. During the current base normal period (1991-2020), such winters occurred once every 10.0 years.

So far, the 2016-16 through 2024-25 period is running notably warmer than had been suggested by the climate models (9-year mean: 38.5°). The warmest winters (41.0° mean) are reasonably in line with expectations. However, the coldest winters are much warmer (36.1°). Very cold winters are still likely to occur for some time, even if the 2015-16 through 2024-25 period has none, according to the climate model projections, but they will likely continue to grow less common.