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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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Looking for some rain total confirmations for Springfield NJ.  NWS listed a report of around 4.5".  Newark recorded a little over an inch, and I live about 2 miles from Springfield NJ, and I could not have gotten any more than Newark.  I understand differences due to convection, but this is pretty extreme...

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59 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Looking for some rain total confirmations for Springfield NJ.  NWS listed a report of around 4.5".  Newark recorded a little over an inch, and I live about 2 miles from Springfield NJ, and I could not have gotten any more than Newark.  I understand differences due to convection, but this is pretty extreme...

Route 78 was closed which rarely if ever happens so I don't doubt the higher amounts in the nw part of the county

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1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Looking for some rain total confirmations for Springfield NJ.  NWS listed a report of around 4.5".  Newark recorded a little over an inch, and I live about 2 miles from Springfield NJ, and I could not have gotten any more than Newark.  I understand differences due to convection, but this is pretty extreme...

Depends on what part of Newark.  The northeast corridor at the Airport station was totally underwater and surrounding areas.  They definitely got more than an inch. 

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3 hours ago, steve392 said:

Depends on what part of Newark.  The northeast corridor at the Airport station was totally underwater and surrounding areas.  They definitely got more than an inch. 

harrison is a more representative station for downtown newark than ewr

Screenshot_20240819-212436.png

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4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Pumpkin Spice season just started, so people assume hoodie season too

Yeah it's all money.  The amount of hype over when Fall menus are coming out, or when pumpkin flavored everything will be available is almost laughable.  

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I have no idea how anyone can wear a hoodie in this sun angle. 

 

43 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Maybe this morning for a bit if you're outside walking the dog or something.

Good morning Rob, FPizz. This type of day, for me, is a t shirt sunny side of the street, late morning walk. Stay well, as always …..

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2 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Good morning Rob, FPizz. This type of day, for me, is a t shirt sunny side of the street, late morning walk. Stay well, as always …..

Agreed.  This morning I wore a t shirt, but my wife wore a sweatshirt when we walked the dog at 6:30.  I'll admit, I was a bit cold :)  

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On 8/16/2024 at 12:36 PM, GaWx said:

@donsutherland1

 I have even more evidence of major flaws in the WeatherBell versions of the CFS: the following post examines the cold E US WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run maps for 8/16-20 with a focus on DC, which show a whopping 6.5 BN. That compares to the only 2 BN being forecasted by the DC NWS office!

 Also, I show a WB 0Z 8/16 CFS run map for 8/16-22, which shows a whopping 8BN at DC (other recent runs are similar) vs NN on the avg of the last 12 TT runs!

 Finally, I show a TT 12 run avg CFS Sep-Nov map with mainly AN E US for autumn, which I’m  comparing to cold autumn WB CFS maps that has been posted by the person I was responding to:

 

Followup showing that this WxBell CFS map was as expected significantly too cool at DC for 8/16-20:

IMG_0138.thumb.png.b0a4bd888e527a77fe28b57fc94e095c.png

 As the above WxBell map for 8/16-20 shows, it had DC and vicinity at 6.5 F BN. It ended up verifying at only 0.7/1.8 F BN at IAD/DCA, which is close to what the DCA NWS had predicted:

1. IAD: actual mean/1991-2020 normal mean

8/16: 75/76

8/17: 78.5/76

8/18: 80/76

8/19: 76/75.5

8/20: 66/75.5

So, 8/16-20: 75.1/75.8
 
 Thus IAD verified at only 0.7 F BN vs WB forecasted ~6.5 F BN.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLWX/2408170524.cdus41.IAD.html
—————————

2. DCA: actual mean/1991-2020 normal mean

8/16: 79.5/79.5

8/17: 79/79.5

8/18: 80/79.5

8/19: 80.5/79.5

8/20: 69.5/79.5

So, 8/16-20: 77.7/79.5

 Thus IAD verified at only 1.8 F BN vs WB forecasted ~6.5 F BN.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLWX/2408170524.cdus41.DCA.html

 This adds to the evidence that WxBell CFS maps have significant flaws in their map generating algorithms as TT CFS maps weren’t nearly as cool.

@donsutherland1

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