Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[GaWx]

On 5/11/2024 at 7:06 AM, snowman19 said:

JB has already decided that this winter is going to be severely cold and snowy. No matter what happens between now and November, he will find any excuse humanly possible to predict that

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record there even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record their even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Very clearly way off and makes zero sense. Only the completely delusional (JB) would believe that 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record their even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Considering the mechanism that brings cold air to Chicago (out of the Arctic and down south) that map really is impossible. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Considering the mechanism that brings cold air to Chicago (out of the Arctic and down south) that map really is impossible. 

But yet JB posts it on the paid site anyway for his east coast weenie base who don’t know any better. $$$$

[rclab]

For all the Moms and the memory of … our love today and every day. As always ….

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

But yet JB posts it on the paid site anyway for his east coast weenie base who don’t know any better. $$$$

JB is totally on the highly unlikely winter +PDO bandwagon now. Talking about the correlation of +PDO to cold and snow in the NE US. Still another day showing the WB CFS with a +PDO for next winter. Is he going to mention winter +PDO every day for next 6 months on days when tropics are quiet?  

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

JB is totally on the highly unlikely winter +PDO bandwagon now. Talking about the correlation of +PDO to cold and snow in the NE US. Still another day showing the WB CFS with a +PDO for next winter. Is he going to mention winter +PDO every day for next 6 months on days when tropics are quiet?  

He’s going to ride the +PDO/high Atlantic ACE train like sea biscuit. Even if it doesn’t work out, he will still find some way, some how to say 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 are analogs

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible. 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible. 

 The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO.

 Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

[Terpeast]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO.

 Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

By the daily WCS graph, it’s obvious that the strong nino made a dent in the -PDO, but nowhere enough to flip it positive. With waning nino influence, the PDO is right back as negative as it has been prior to the nino.

It’s going to be a long time before the PDO goes positive, and I don’t know anymore what it will take to drive that. 

[GaWx]

On 5/12/2024 at 1:52 PM, snowman19 said:

He’s going to ride the +PDO/high Atlantic ACE train like sea biscuit. Even if it doesn’t work out, he will still find some way, some how to say 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 are analogs

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

*Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than  closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

TT map for comparison (yes, it’s apples vs oranges)

 

I mean, I don’t hate this map. With a cold source nearby, it could be workable. But CFS seems to be on its own, and it’s going to change 1000 times (probably correcting warmer in the last minute)

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

*Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than  closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

It is all but certain that map will fail spectacularly. Let’s see if JB embraces it, as he so often does with other maps showing cold extremes.

[Nibor]

It’s felt like a real spring this year. We didn’t just jump into summer. 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

It’s felt like a real spring this year. We didn’t just jump into summer. 

Yeah people forget this is what spring is usually like. It hasn't been overly wet despite the cloudy dreary cool days

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah people forget this is what spring is usually like. It hasn't been overly wet despite the cloudy dreary cool days

I'm at nearly 2.5" of rain through the first 15 days.  We haven't had the soakers so far thankfully.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm at nearly 2.5" of rain through the first 15 days.  We haven't had the soakers so far thankfully.

Yeah parts of the area have had quite a bit. Ewr is still below 1.5"

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah people forget this is what spring is usually like. It hasn't been overly wet despite the cloudy dreary cool days

Yeah but we've had more clouds and days with rain than normal, even going back to last summer.  It's not necessarily a lot of rain in terms of totals, but days and days of smaller amounts.  I remember plenty of springs that were dry and the pollen really began to build up.  I still want to see a graph with cloudy days going back to last June.  Guarantee it's way above normal.

[LibertyBell]

A town in NJ has just gotten USDA permission to mass gas Canada geese during molting season when they can't fly   what a travesty.... good thing is that the mayor has responded to mass criticism of this plan and said he will pursue nonlethal methods first.  Including oral contraceptives which is what's been used on pigeons here.

Pity the moron midget mayor billionaire Bloomberg didn't try other methods before he mass gassed the geese in our parks years ago.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah people forget this is what spring is usually like. It hasn't been overly wet despite the cloudy dreary cool days

it's the worst season of the year, but our springs in the 90s were MUCH better.

We're in the midatlantic not new england it isn't supposed to be like this. If we're going to get 10" of snow in the winter, in exchange we should get warm sunny dry springs.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah parts of the area have had quite a bit. Ewr is still below 1.5"

no one really cares about rainfall, we all want more sunshine.

[Dark Star]

0.01" of rain in Linden NJ for May 16th.  Somehow I think the forecast was a tad off?  Then again, the NWS has been changing their forecasts so often lately, that they might have had it right on one of the revisions...

[Dark Star]

On 5/15/2024 at 4:37 PM, LibertyBell said:

A town in NJ has just gotten USDA permission to mass gas Canada geese during molting season when they can't fly   what a travesty.... good thing is that the mayor has responded to mass criticism of this plan and said he will pursue nonlethal methods first.  Including oral contraceptives which is what's been used on pigeons here.

Pity the moron midget mayor billionaire Bloomberg didn't try other methods before he mass gassed the geese in our parks years ago.

 

I am NOT putting condoms on Geese.  

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I am NOT putting condoms on Geese.  

LMAO

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

I am NOT putting condoms on Geese.  

Thank you Dark Star. No search needed this time. Pictorial imagination was enough. Stay safe, as always ….

[Nibor]

On 5/17/2024 at 7:44 AM, Dark Star said:

I am NOT putting condoms on Geese.  

Wow. Way to not care about safe sex, bro. Sigh...

[donsutherland1]

Leaf patterns at the New York Botanical Garden:

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Leaf patterns at the New York Botanical Garden:

I didn't know it covered 250 acres and they have an Alice in Wonderland themed giant topiary going on there? I am partial to the giant March Hare topiary!

Question-- why is it called New York Botanical Garden when it's in The Bronx? Why not call it The Bronx Botanical Garden? We have one in Brooklyn and it's called The Brooklyn Botanical Garden.

 

[LibertyBell]

FYI Since we are talking about plants and flowers, I just got this ultraviolet pass filter to see hidden markings on flowers.  More details can be found on this page:

 

http://www.virtualherbarium.org/GardenViews/BeesEyeView.html

 

 

 

Bees Eye View

Scott Zona, Ph.D., Former Palm Biologist

http://www.virtualherbarium.org/images/BeesEyeView5.jpg

For some time, biologists have known that bees perceive light differently than humans do. What we see as visible light is a small portion of the electromagnetic spectrum and consists of a mixture of different colored light. Color is determined by the light's wavelength, which ranges from violet (400 nm wavelength) to red (700 nm). We are unable to see other portions of the spectrum, such as ultraviolet or infrared. Bees, on the other hand, see a portion of the spectrum shifted toward shorter wavelengths. Their eyes perceive yellows, greens, blues and purples as we do, but they also perceive ultraviolet (UV) light (180-400 nm). Bees do not perceive the red portion of the visible spectrum.

http://www.virtualherbarium.org/images/BeesEyeView1.jpg
What we see	What the bee sees

Because their eyes are so different from ours, we can only approximate how bees see flowers. By using photographic equipment, we can visualize some components of bee vision that are normally invisible to us, namely the reflection or absorption of UV radiation. Plants contain chemicals that either reflect or absorb electromagnetic radiation, including UV, visible, and infrared (which we cannot see but we can feel as heat). Sunlight's UV radiation is absorbed, partially absorbed, or reflected by flowers and can be captured on black and white photographic film or with a digital camera, using special filters. In the resulting photograph, reflected UV appears white, and absorbed UV appears dark. Partially absorbed UV appears gray.

The two photos shown here are of a locally common weed, Achmella pilosa, in the sunflower family (Asteraceae). The photo on the left was taken in sunlight without any special filter, using a Minolta DiMAGE 7Hi digital camera. The right-hand photo was subsequently taken with a Wratten 18AUV filter attached to the camera. Typical of the sunflower family, Achmella has the common daisy-type “flower” (inflorescence) that is actually a group of two different kinds of flowers. The outer “petals” are individual flowers, called ray flowers. The central eye is a cluster of small flowers called disk flowers. Together, these two kinds of flowers make up the inflorescence we commonly call daisies or sunflowers. Achmella pilosa exhibits a common phenomenon seen in many Asteraceae: the bull's eye pattern formed by UV-reflecting ray flowers and UV-absorbing disk flowers. The pattern helps bees locate and land on the flowers. Plants need bees to carry pollen from one flower to another, and UV patterns expedite the process.

 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I didn't know it covered 250 acres and they have an Alice in Wonderland themed giant topiary going on there? I am partial to the giant March Hare topiary!

Question-- why is it called New York Botanical Garden when it's in The Bronx? Why not call it The Bronx Botanical Garden? We have one in Brooklyn and it's called The Brooklyn Botanical Garden.

 

The Garden was established by the New York State Legislature in 1891. The best land available at the time was in the Bronx.