Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[snowman19]

@GaWx @donsutherland1 

Heres the paper I was looking for regarding strong +AO response to volcanic eruptions. Given this and the solar max/high geomag/sunspots, +QBO, I would say at this very early juncture that a +AO/+NAO winter is highly favored as of right now:

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006286

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx @donsutherland1 

Heres the paper I was looking for regarding strong +AO response to volcanic eruptions. Given this and the solar max/high geomag/sunspots, +QBO, I would say at this very early juncture that a +AO/+NAO winter is highly favored as of right now:

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JD006286

 Thank you for this link! This is a summary of what I learned from reading it, with emphasis on tables 3 (9 eruptions since 1880s) and 4 (subset of the 9 that covers only the 4 since 1963)

-Covers the two DJFs that follow 9 volcanic eruptions (3 each of VEI 4, 5, 6)

-For the eruptions that occurred Mar-Aug (7 of 9) the immediate next 2 DJFs were analyzed

-But for the two that occurred in Oct, a one year lag was assumed and thus the two later DJFs were studied.

-Winters analyzed: 1883-4/1884-5, 1886-7/1887-8, 1888-9/1889-90, 1903-4/1904-5, 1932-3/1933-4, 1963-4/1964-5, 1975-6/1976-7, 1982-3/1983-4, 1991-2/1992-3

-For these 18 winters averaged, table 3 shows a significant +AO and +NAO based on BN SLP in the Arctic (-2 mb) and AN SLP in the Azores (+3 mb).

-For just the average of the 8 winters since 1963-4, table 4 shows an even stronger +AO/+NAO with even more BN Arctic SLP (-3 mb) and even more AN Azores SLP (+5 mb).

-But focusing on just the 8 winters since 1963 (table 4) and looking at the respective NOAA NAO/AO monthlies shows a disconnect with this study’s table 4/very mixed picture

  1) NAO: 1963-4 and 1976-7 had two of the strongest -NAO since 1950! Also, 1964-5 had a moderate -NAO and 1975-6 had a neutral NAO. So, 50% of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral NAO. The average NAO for the 8 was near 0/neutral!
**Edit: Coincidentally?, 1963-4/1964-5 and 1975-6/1976-7 were near solar mins (avg sunspots <27) while 1982-3 and 1991-2/1992-3 had >110 with 1983-4 ~75. 2024-5 almost definitely/2025-6 likely will have active sunspots fwiw.

  2) AO: 1964-5 and 1976-7 were -AO while 1963-4, 1982-3, and 1983-4 were neutral AO. So, 5/8 of the 8 winters had a negative to neutral AO. The average AO for the 8 winters was near 0/neutral!

-Their map for the 18 winter average shows NN temperatures in the E US despite their +AO/+NAO average. (They’re AN in N Eurasia).

-My look at the 18 E US winter temperatures one by one using NYC as the representative city (normals based on nearby 30 year averages):

1883-4: slightly BN (cold Jan)

1884-5: BN (very cold Feb) (cold SE)(Nino)

1886-7: slightly BN (cold Dec)(Niña)

1887-8: BN (very cold Jan)(big Mar blizzard)

1888-9: slightly AN (mild Jan)(super Nino)

1889-90: MAN (D,J,F mild)(MAN SE)(Niña)

1903-4: MBN (all 3 cold)(BN SE)(Niña)

1904-5: BN (cold D,F)(MBN in SE)(Nino)

1932-3: AN (mild D,J)

1933-4: BN (record cold F)(Niña)

1963-4: NN (cold D, mild J)(MBN in SE)(Nino)

1964-5: NN (Niña)

1975-6: NN (cold Jan, mild Feb)(Niña)

1976-7: MBN (MBN DJ)(record cold SE)(Nino)

1982-3: AN (mild Dec)(super Nino)

1983-4: NN (mild Feb)(Niña)

1991-2: AN (Nino)

1992-3: NN (mild J, cold F)(Storm of Cent. Mar)

—————
AVG of all 18: slightly BN/wide variation

AVG of 9 1st winters: slightly AN/wide variation

AVG of 9 2nd winters: slightly BN/wide variation (most of BN to MBN winters 2nd yr)

ENSO: 7 Nino, 7 Niña (even split but study favors Nino maybe due to bigger weights of 2 super Nino)

 Their maps show stronger than normal SPV/TPV for the 18 winter average. Stratosphere is opposite, warmer than normal, in the tropics.

[snowman19]

Here comes La Niña. We already have the strong -PDO….only question remaining….do we flip to a -IOD by fall, which will really kick this into overdrive?

[GaWx]

 New from JB:

“Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter”

“this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15”

 

 Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)??

 To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDJ vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO

@snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

[Brian5671]

What I don't get is why he only looks at the WB maps-if they are causing him to bust why not check out other sources?

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 New from JB:

“Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter”

“this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15”

 
 

 Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)??

 To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDF vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO

@snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What I don't get is why he only looks at the WB maps-if they are causing him to bust why not check out other sources?

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

 True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous. I assume he doesn’t realize these WB SSTa maps are bogus.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, he’s simply finding the coldest and snowiest winters for the east coast and saying they are “analogs” just like he does every single winter for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from his weenie base. His next wishcast will be that 95-96 is an analog too. As predictable as the rising sun. Wash, rinse, repeat 

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back? 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous.

He doesn’t care and he knows that the majority of his weenie base doesn’t know any better. They just keep forking him over the cash. He’s a snake oil salesman, laughing all the way to the bank

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We are definitely on the same page here. 13/14 was a strong -epo based winter, which we haven’t seen since. Why would that suddenly come back? 

It doesn’t matter as he’s using maps with bogus CFS forecasted Pacific SSTa data to make it seem like 13/14 is a good analog. I‘m not saying he knows it is bogus though. I assume he doesn’t.

[GaWx]

 Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias.

 Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off?

@snowman19

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

Crazy.  That would be like using the CMC only to predict weather and not looking at any other models...

[Brian5671]

Last truly cold eastern winters were 13-14 and 14-15--it's been a unmitigated torch since then with the occasional cold snap or snowy pattern like 20-21

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Crazy.  That would be like using the CMC only to predict weather and not looking at any other models...

 But this is even worse because it is like looking at the WB version of the CMC only and not other versions of the same model (CMC) that are very different and make more sense (more believable). Why very different SSTa output from the same model even exists is mind boggling. They should be similar.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias.

 Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off?

@snowman19

I believe the maps are purposely skewed in some way to fit his east coast cold and snow obsession. The guy isn’t right mentally. Make no mistake about it, no matter what happens with the PDO (which will extremely likely be negative), his analogs for next winter will be 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. It’s already a predetermined done deal in his warped mind

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I believe the maps are purposely skewed in some way to fit his east coast cold and snow obsession. The guy isn’t right mentally. Make no mistake about it, no matter what happens with the PDO (which will extremely likely be negative), his analogs for next winter will be 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. It’s already a predetermined done deal in his warped mind

 Really? Wow if true! So, in this case, are you saying you believe that WB is purposely skewing the colors on the Pacific SSTa maps to make it show a +PDO when it really is a -PDO? I don’t believe that but I suppose anything’s possible until if/when there’s an explanation.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 New from JB:

“Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter”

“this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15”

 

 Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)??

 To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDF vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO

@snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

IMO, the probability of a PDO+ is very low given the ENSO forecast. Moreover, the NCEP version of the CFSv2 maps shows no PDO+ developing through the October-December period (end of its timeframe). The WeatherModels version shows PDO- for all three winter months. I suspect WxBell's maps are incorrect. As Winter 2024-25 is still in fantasyland, I can't completely rule out the prospect, but I think even from this far out, such an outcome is very unlikely.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Really? Wow if true! So, in this case, are you saying you believe that WB is purposely skewing the colors on the Pacific SSTa maps to make it show a +PDO when it really is a -PDO? I don’t believe that but I suppose anything’s possible until if/when there’s an explanation.

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

that's absolutely hilarious because I remember in one of his rants years ago he yelled about how much he hates the metric system lol

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

  Did the maps show positive departures? Were they red/orange/yellow, etc?

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

that's absolutely hilarious because I remember in one of his rants years ago he yelled about how much he hates the metric system lol

 

Just like he hates the “warm biased” CFS until it shows what he wants

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  Did the maps show positive departures? Were they red/orange/yellow, etc?

No but would it surprise you if the WB maps were skewed in some way to purposely show his wishcast of a +PDO? 

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No but would it surprise you if the WB maps were skewed in some way to purposely show his wishcast of a +PDO? 

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation?

2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation?

2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

In the scientific world, this has been done often out of greed, you should read the false reports coming out of the fossil fuel companies and also the sugar industry about their products.

 

[rclab]

We may need a crises intervention team. Anthony posted “Pizza is gross in Rhode Island”  … in the New England sub forum. As always, …..

[Rjay]

On 5/3/2024 at 12:36 PM, GaWx said:

 Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias.

 Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off?

@snowman19

It's intentional 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

We may need a crises intervention team. Anthony posted “Pizza is gross in Rhode Island”  … in the New England sub forum. As always, …..

why is he in Rhode Island? There's so many better places to go this time of year.

Have you ever seen the movie Mystic Pizza? He should take the short drive to SE CT to get some real pizza.

[snowman19]

Looks like this year’s solar maximum is going to be the biggest in over 20 years.

Link:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/the-sun-is-super-active-right-now-heres-how-it-can-affect-electronics-on-earth

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 JB this morning is hyping/wishcasting a very high Atlantic ACE tropical season. Why you ask? Because he wants to use that to say 95-96 (over a 220 ACE season) is an analog and add it to the analog list he already made of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15. You can read him like a book

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurricane_season#:~:text=The season's activity was reflected,1981–2010 median of 92.