Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. I don't know about snow, but he says that a mean trough in May near the E coast is often a precursor to big H seasons. So, he wants a trough there.

2. He has been wondering why the Euro weeklies at 2M issued directly by ECMWF have been warmer than the WxBell versions of the weeklies. I've been saying that WxBell maps shouldn't be trusted. Keep in mind that Wxbell SSTa CFS maps keep showing a +PDO late in 2024 vs other CFS maps showing a continuing -PDO.

3.  I expect a very active H season, regardless. My hope is that it is similar to 2010.

If we should go -IOD I think this Niña really takes off, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. I wish him a lot of luck with those +PDO wishcasts, I think he’s going to need it 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we should go -IOD I think this Niña really takes off, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. I wish him a lot of luck with those +PDO wishcasts, I think he’s going to need it 

It doesn't much matter. He doesn't seem to care about his credibility since that went out the window years ago and the crazier shit he posts the more followers he seems to get...or at least doesn't seem to be losing many

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It doesn't much matter. He doesn't seem to care about his credibility since that went out the window years ago and the crazier shit he posts the more followers he seems to get...or at least doesn't seem to be losing many

I'd be surprised if many energy clients have hung on after the last few years of temp busts

[forkyfork]

let's pave over newark bay

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

@snowman19
 

This eruption is even larger than the first, this is incredible. The first was a solid VEI 4 by itself with about .40 cubic kilometers of erupted material. Given this blast now is even larger, there really is a chance for a collective VEI 5 event here. 

These are incredible sequences of lava dome creation and destruction, like Shiveluch last year but even larger and more powerful.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19
 

This eruption is even larger than the first, this is incredible. The first was a solid VEI 4 by itself with about .40 cubic kilometers of erupted material. Given this blast now is even larger, there really is a chance for a collective VEI 5 event here. 

These are incredible sequences of lava dome creation and destruction, like Shiveluch last year but even larger and more powerful.

how beautiful! where is this? ... near Bali?

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

let's pave over newark bay

why does it even exist? 

[Volcanic Winter]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how beautiful! where is this? ... near Bali?

Indonesia in the Sangihe islands, near North Sulawesi. 

Gunung Ruang

[rclab]

13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

let's pave over newark bay

 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why does it even exist? 

Possible relocation site for the Central Park ASOS? As always ……

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19
 

This eruption is even larger than the first, this is incredible. The first was a solid VEI 4 by itself with about .40 cubic kilometers of erupted material. Given this blast now is even larger, there really is a chance for a collective VEI 5 event here. 

These are incredible sequences of lava dome creation and destruction, like Shiveluch last year but even larger and more powerful.

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere

@GaWx @donsutherland1

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere

@GaWx @donsutherland1

JB says ice age winter incoming now....

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere

@GaWx @donsutherland1

It will depend how much was injected into the stratosphere. The earlier eruption produced about 0.5 terragrams of sulfur dioxide. About 5 terragrams reaching the stratosphere is required to have a significant short-term climate impact.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152716/a-blanket-of-ash-from-ruang

I haven't seen any data on the most recent eruption, yet, but it should be posted here in coming days:

https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/measures.html

Note: The chart in the above link shows total sulfur dioxide emissions, not solely those that reached the stratosphere.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will depend how much was injected into the stratosphere. The earlier eruption produced about 0.5 terragrams of sulfur dioxide. About 5 terragrams reaching the stratosphere is required to have a significant short-term climate impact.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152716/a-blanket-of-ash-from-ruang

I haven't seen any data on the most recent eruption, yet, but it should be posted here in coming days:

https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/measures.html

Note: The chart in the above link shows total sulfur dioxide emissions, not solely those that reached the stratosphere.

Absolutely Don. 
 

I see they revised the first blast up to half a Tg up from 0.3 from the initial estimate. I can’t overstate how impressive this entire sequence has been. The first blast was the destruction of the existing lava dome (think a plug of viscous magma that hardens into a dome shape blocking the conduit and helping to increase pressure in the system). It was notably intense transpiring only over a couple hours and outputting mid VEI 4 volume; that’s extremely impressive. 

Most volcanoes would then go quiet and enter a prolonged period of repose after such a blast. Instead, Ruang extruded another, even larger lava dome which hardened into another plug. The injection of fresh magma into the chambers below apparently never stopped, and Ruang built back up like a pressure cooker. This second blast was utterly spectacular, the amount of power behind blasts of that nature is bewildering. 

Like Grimsvotn in 2011, most VEI 4-5 plinian eruptions are only moderately intense and transpire over 12 or more hours. You have a generally sustained eruption column that may occasionally collapse into pyroclastic flows down the flanks of the system. 

Ruang just did everything all at once, twice!

[Volcanic Winter]

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming. 

Maybe for darker lunar eclipses, but as far as volcanoes influencing the climate, they've all been a colossal disappointment.

I was around for El Chichon and it didn't do anything for our snowfall totals and neither did Pinatubo.

 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will depend how much was injected into the stratosphere. The earlier eruption produced about 0.5 terragrams of sulfur dioxide. About 5 terragrams reaching the stratosphere is required to have a significant short-term climate impact.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152716/a-blanket-of-ash-from-ruang

I haven't seen any data on the most recent eruption, yet, but it should be posted here in coming days:

https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/measures.html

Note: The chart in the above link shows total sulfur dioxide emissions, not solely those that reached the stratosphere.

Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looking like we are going to have a potentially interesting setup taking shape…possible volcanic stratosphere?, -IOD by fall?, strong La Niña (orientation TBD - east based/basin wide/Modoki?), -PDO, high solar max/high geomag/high sunspots, +QBO, ++AMO….

 When you say “potentially interesting” with regard to the items you listed, are you implying anything specific? I’m curious about what you’re thinking.

 To your list, I’d add the continuing effects of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano due to the massive amount of moisture emitted. I’ve read one paper with an analysis that suggests that significant global effects, including added warmth on a global basis, will likely continue through ~2029. One thing it suggests is that there’s an increased chance vs climo of a multi-year El Niño later this decade due to this:

 

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 When you say “potentially interesting” with regard to the items you listed, are you implying anything specific? I’m curious about what you’re thinking.

 To your list, I’d add the continuing effects of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano due to the massive amount of moisture emitted. I’ve read at least one paper with an analysis that suggests that significant global effects, including added warmth on a global basis, will likely continue through ~2029. One thing it suggests is that there’s an increased chance vs climo of a multi-year El Niño later this decade due to this:

 

I am referring to the potential volcanic effects yes. I don’t think AGW is going anywhere anytime soon, in fact, it may even get worse

@donsutherland1 Thoughts?

[JTA66]

I remember reading once that, while tropical eruptions can lead to cooler summers, they tend to produce warmer winters. If we what an eruption that leads to cooler winters for us, we need the eruption to take place in the northern latitudes.

Any truth to this? Did I misread or am I remembering this incorrectly? Hoping someone more knowledgeable than me (which is most of you) can chime in. Thanks! 

[Volcanic Winter]

The larger eruption I'm hearing was 0.94 cubic kilometers, combining with the earlier 0.40 cubic kilometers of the eruption on the 17th, this event is a clear VEI 5 overall and actually larger than St Helens in 1980, though that erupted 1.2 cubic kilometers in one sustained eruption.

Still, this is a very, very significant event. Usually one eruption per decade will reach VEI 5 levels.

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I remember reading once that, while tropical eruptions can lead to cooler summers, they tend to produce warmer winters. If we what an eruption that leads to cooler winters for us, we need the eruption to take place in the northern latitudes.

Any truth to this? Did I misread or am I remembering this incorrectly? Hoping someone more knowledgeable than me (which is most of you) can chime in. Thanks! 

Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The larger eruption I'm hearing was 0.94 cubic kilometers, combining with the earlier 0.40 cubic kilometers of the eruption on the 17th, this event is a clear VEI 5 overall and actually larger than St Helens in 1980, though that erupted 1.2 cubic kilometers in one sustained eruption.

Still, this is a very, very significant event. Usually one eruption per decade will reach VEI 5 levels.

This is looking to possibly be a “high end” VEI 5, cumulative, when all is said and done. Like you said, extremely impressive 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Classic tropical volcanic eruptions that get into the stratosphere typically cause +AO (NAM)/+NAO the 1st winter after an eruption. Then -AO/-NAO is favored the 2nd winter after

 Fwiw the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which occurred 6/15/91, was followed by +NAO/+AO not only the next winter but also by an even stronger one the 2nd winter (strongest since 1988-9):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

[GaWx]

 Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out):

New 2 meter DJF E US:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9

 

Old:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Fwiw for next winter (I know forecast value is low), the new CANSIPS pretty much maintains the -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave/basin wide to central based La Niña/-PNA/+EPO of the prior run though all but -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave with less intensity. Also, it lost the +AO/+NAO to go neutral to slightly -AO/-NAO. Temperatures in the E US went (vs cooler base of 1981-2010) from a somewhat solid AN on the prior run to very slightly AN to NN on the new one. This is equivalent to NN vs 1991-2020 base. It cooled ~2 F. Again, fwiw and I’ll believe it will be that “cool” when I see it (due to model cold bias and very low accuracy that far out):

New 2 meter DJF E US:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024050100&fh=9

 

Old:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2024040100&fh=10

After the utter debacle last winter, I’ll never look at those again

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I am referring to the potential volcanic effects yes. I don’t think AGW is going anywhere anytime soon, in fact, it may even get worse

@donsutherland1 Thoughts?

AGW will almost certainly grow worse. There's little indication that global fossil fuel emissions will begin to decline significantly over the near- and medium-term. That will probably add another 0.1C-0.2C background warming globally toward the end of the decade. By 2030 readings close to 2023 levels might be the norm. By then, there will probably be a clear signal for declining snowfall in the NYC area that will stand out from any plausible case for internal variability.

 

[snowman19]

@Volcanic Winter Just read on twitter that the eruptions are still getting revised higher and may approach a VEI 6 in the end? 

[snowman19]

A classic, strong -PDO signature is developing, cold subsurface anomalies in the ENSO regions, all systems go for this La Niña to really take off