Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[Brian5671]

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

Record cold and snow was coming for 6 months in a row according to him. His 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 “analogs” and “migrating Modoki” worked out superbly lol First it was Thanksgiving week/late November, then Christmas week, then late December/New Year’s, then late January and early February, then mid-late February “Sixteen Chapel” cold and snow pattern, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, then late March/early April, “coldest and snowiest start to spring in history”. Anyone who actually takes him seriously anymore needs a psychiatric evaluation 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Record cold and snow was coming for 6 months in a row according to him. His 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03 and 09-10 “analogs” and “migrating Modoki” worked out superbly lol First it was Thanksgiving week/late November, then Christmas week, then late December/New Year’s, then late January and early February, then mid-late February “Sixteen Chapel” cold and snow pattern, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, then late March/early April, “coldest and snowiest start to spring in history”. Anyone who actually takes him seriously anymore needs a psychiatric evaluation 

Most knew to bail when the pattern change was delayed to mid Jan and only lasted a week or so before it flipped back to warmth

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Most knew to bail when the pattern change was delayed to mid Jan and only lasted a week or so before it flipped back to warmth

and this is how it always happens lol

it's been dejavu for a few winters now

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and this is how it always happens lol

it's been dejavu for a few winters now

Other than 20-21 it's been terrible going back to 18-19 winter

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

1. When was the last time in advance of winter that he said the “worry” is it will be warmer than his forecast in the E US?

2. He mentions his energy clients often. Energy companies typically do better when winter is cold in the E US. I think this reinforces his natural cold bias in winter.

3. There was no major SSW in Dec like he thought might occur though there were a couple Jan-Mar.

4. He hardly ever recognizes the cold bias that has prevailed for years with the seasonal models.

5. I’m predicting he’ll once again not go warm for his FINAL winter forecast 2024-5. He’s already been showing strong hints about this. One thing he’s already harping on is suggesting a +PDO next winter based on what are clearly to me faulty Weatherbell CFS SSTa map progs for late in 2024 as I’ve shown, including not showing the E/SE of Japan marine heatwave and instead showing cold in a good portion of the W/C Pac. This is despite TT maps from the same CFS as well as from other models showing -PDO continuing.

6. There isn’t even a single winter when for the bulk of the E US he went warm at least since 2014-5 (I don’t mean just slightly AN) and stayed that way. There was one recently (2020-1) that he started off pretty warm (~+3) and cooled it considerably to NN for his final forecast. His frost covered glasses wouldn’t let him go warm and stay that way:

Prelim DJF 20-1

Final DJF 20-21:

 

 One thing I will give him kudos for was recognizing the importance of the concept of RONI vs just using ONI due to the very warm SSTs elsewhere that were dominating even though it didn’t help his fcast:

“There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño”

[Brian5671]

Any reason why seasonal models have a cold bias?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Any reason why seasonal models have a cold bias?

 I‘m talking mainly E US, esp in winter. It isn’t just seasonal. The major MR models as a whole have been too cold much more often than too warm for years. That’s likely why, for example, that there’s more often than not a NW correction of surface lows as we get closer in forecast time. When they have the lows too far SE, they usually prog it to be too cold in the E US. Then they come NW in later runs to match the warmer reality.
 
 I suspect it is due to the very warm WPAC that @bluewaveoften mentions. This often causes the atmosphere to act like the MJO is in the MC even when it isn’t. This very warm WPAC has according to a pro met I’ve talked to helped to enhance the “SE ridge” (similar to what the MJO MC phases do), something the models usually underestimate for some reason. If the MR models are too cold, there’s no reason to expect the seasonals to not be similar.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. When was the last time in advance of winter that he said the “worry” is it will be warmer than his forecast in the E US?

2. He mentions his energy clients often. Energy companies typically do better when winter is cold in the E US. I think this reinforces his natural cold bias in winter.

3. There was no major SSW in Dec like he thought might occur though there were a couple Jan-Mar.

4. He hardly ever recognizes the cold bias that has prevailed for years with the seasonal models.

5. I’m predicting he’ll once again not go warm for his FINAL winter forecast 2024-5. He’s already been showing strong hints about this. One thing he’s already harping on is suggesting a +PDO next winter based on what are clearly to me faulty Weatherbell CFS SSTa map progs for late in 2024 as I’ve shown, including not showing the E/SE of Japan marine heatwave and instead showing cold in a good portion of the W/C Pac. This is despite TT maps from the same CFS as well as from other models showing -PDO continuing.

6. There isn’t even a single winter when for the bulk of the E US he went warm at least since 2014-5 (I don’t mean just slightly AN) and stayed that way. There was one recently (2020-1) that he started off pretty warm (~+3) and cooled it considerably to NN for his final forecast. His frost covered glasses wouldn’t let him go warm and stay that way:

Prelim DJF 20-1

Final DJF 20-21:

 

 One thing I will give him kudos for was recognizing the importance of the concept of RONI vs just using ONI due to the very warm SSTs elsewhere that were dominating even though it didn’t help his fcast:

“There is little cold water anywhere, so the difference in temperatures (relative SSTs) is nowhere near the standard El Niño”

He isn’t just going for a cold and snowy east coast winter this year, he’s going epic (95-96, 10-11). I can see it coming already. That’s why he’s wishcasting a huge Atlantic hurricane season with recurves and super high ACE, 95-96 (-NAO) and a +PDO. He knows that even if the +PDO doesn’t work out, he can just fall back on 10-11 being -PDO/+QBO, and still use 95-96 if his tropical Atlantic wishcast works out

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I‘m talking mainly E US, esp in winter. It isn’t just seasonal. The major MR models as a whole have been too cold much more often than too warm for years. That’s likely why, for example, that there’s more often than not a NW correction of surface lows as we get closer in forecast time. When they have the lows too far SE, they usually prog it to be too cold in the E US. Then they come NW in later runs to match the warmer reality.
 
 I suspect it is due to the very warm WPAC that @bluewaveoften mentions. This often causes the atmosphere to act like the MJO is in the MC even when it isn’t. This very warm WPAC has according to a pro met I’ve talked to helped to enhance the “SE ridge” (similar to what the MJO MC phases do), something the models usually underestimate for some reason. If the MR models are too cold, there’s no reason to expect the seasonals to not be similar.

While it’s a bit early for me to start thinking about next winter, the winter warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño has been simply astounding. There had never been a sustained 9 winter period in our modern instrumental period back to the late 1800s this warm before in the Eastern US. My guess is that the shift is related to dramatic warming in Western Pacific which began back in 2014. This is in concert with more frequent and higher amplitude MJO 4-7 phases. Even with the El Niño this winter the Aleutians ridge near the Dateline was unusually strong. This has been a repeating theme since 15-16. It also works to amplify the ridge and warmth in the East.

All the seasonal model winter forecasts since 15-16  have been significantly too cold. This is probably related to the models not having the capability to factor in the historic SST changes since 2014 in the Pacific when they have been making their seasonal forecasts. So it will be interesting to see if this pattern keeps repeating in coming winters or something happens to shift away from this persistent 9 winter pattern. 

 

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While it’s a bit early for me to start thinking about next winter, the winter warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño has been simply astounding. There had never been a sustained 9 winter period in our modern instrumental period back to the late 1800s this warm before in the Eastern US. My guess is that the shift is related to dramatic warming in Western Pacific which began back in 2014. This is in concert with more frequent and higher amplitude MJO 4-7 phases. Even with the El Niño this winter the Aleutians ridge near the Dateline was unusually strong. This has been a repeating theme since 15-16. It also works to amplify the ridge and warmth in the East.

All the seasonal model winter forecasts since 15-16  have been significantly too cold. This is probably related to the models not having the capability to factor in the historic SST changes since 2014 in the Pacific when they have been making their seasonal forecasts. So it will be interesting to see if this pattern keeps repeating in coming winters or something happens to shift away from this persistent 9 winter pattern. 

 

 

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

Why is there such a strong marine heatwave centered in the WPAC? Why there?

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why is there such a strong marine heatwave centered in the WPAC? Why there?

We’ll probably need better climate models in the future to give us that answer. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2

This work must be open to the idea that climate models, as currently formulated, may be deficient in their representations of past and future changes in tropical Pacific climate. Until this issue is resolved, many aspects of future projections that are strongly influenced by the tropical Pacific – including future regional climate, teleconnected climate risks, and the oceanic uptake of CO2 – will be highly uncertain.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll probably need better climate models in the future to give us that answer. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2

This work must be open to the idea that climate models, as currently formulated, may be deficient in their representations of past and future changes in tropical Pacific climate. Until this issue is resolved, many aspects of future projections that are strongly influenced by the tropical Pacific – including future regional climate, teleconnected climate risks, and the oceanic uptake of CO2 – will be highly uncertain.

AI might help with this!

[MJO812]

I'm looking back at old runs for the big Jan 2021 Blizzard. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm looking back at old runs for the big Jan 2021 Blizzard. 

Coastal hugger though

There are better ones for us to look at.

 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Coastal hugger though

There are better ones for us to look at.

 

18 inches with this one

Not many better ones to look at

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18 inches with this one

Not many better ones to look at

It changed to rain for us, I still look at January 2016 as the peak of our winter storms.

[donsutherland1]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:32 AM, Brian5671 said:

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

Speaking of JB, we just made it through his latest forecast period of “major cold.” The NYC temperature anomaly for April 25-28 was 1.3 degrees below normal. That was the 98th coldest April 25-28 period on record. Records go back to 1869. 

[Rjay]

Who's gonna tell metsfan?

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Who's gonna tell metsfan?

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

[rclab]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

Good morning S19. It reminds me of the lyrics from ‘Both Sides Now’: I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now … from up and down and still somehow … its clouds illusions I recall … I really don’t know clouds at all’. As always …..

 

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

By then he will be laying the groundwork for next winter's ice age call....that of course after a CAT 5 recurves into NY Harbor...

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

You're probably right. Maybe he'll dig out the 1816 analog for June given his practice of using antiquated and irrelevant analogs.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

The tree growth over the ASOS has become so dense that Central Park hasn’t made it over 98° since 2012 which is a new record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-28
1	4302	2012-07-19 through 2024-04-28
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/new-york-city-arguably-has-the-most-unique-weather-observations-in-america

1920

 

2021

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tree growth over the ASOS has become so dense that Central Park hasn’t made it over 98° since 2012 which is a new record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-28
1	4302	2012-07-19 through 2024-04-28
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

1920

 

2021

Maybe we will have a nice dry summer-- dry through at least July with 3 inches or less rainfall each month would be great.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

I'm gungho about JFK finally hitting 100 again too

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

1. I don't know about snow, but he says that a mean trough in May near the E coast is often a precursor to big H seasons. So, he wants a trough there.

2. He has been wondering why the Euro weeklies at 2M issued directly by ECMWF have been warmer than the WxBell versions of the weeklies. I've been saying that WxBell maps shouldn't be trusted. Keep in mind that Wxbell SSTa CFS maps keep showing a +PDO late in 2024 vs other CFS maps showing a continuing -PDO.

3.  I expect a very active H season, regardless. My hope is that it is similar to 2010.