Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

does this really work?

when I was a kid I did something stupid and funny--

This was back in the early 80s we were living in an apartment in Brooklyn and I was pissed off because the weather people were always blowing their forecasts of snow and it never seemed to snow... it must have been 1980 or 1981 I would guess. 

My only justification for this is I was somewhere between 6-8 years old when this happened..... my parents were out shopping and I decided to make my own snow because I was pissed off that it wouldn't snow.  I took talcum powder and poured it all over our fans and turned them all on (we had a lot of table fans and ceiling fans, etc.)  Anyway as soon as I turned on all the fans, I was delighted because I could see it "snowing" everywhere as the talcum was blown around by the fans.  IT WAS JUST LIKE A REAL BLIZZARD!  But as soon as I came to my senses I realized that everything had turned white and my parents would be very angry when they got home so I quickly wiped everything off.  Only problem was our one TV in the house had also turned white and it had little airholes in the back and the white powder got stuck in there and I didn't quite know how to remove it from there so in my 6-8 year old panicked and frantic mind I decided to pour water in there to clean out the powder.  As you can guess this wasn't a good idea and the TV started to hum when I turned it on.  I could do nothing but turn it off and wait for it to dry out completely before it was safe to turn on again without the humming.

 

They did find out what I did when they came home and everything looked like it was covered in a hazy white mist lol.  My sister rubbed her eyes because she couldn't quite tell what happened.... until I explained what I did to everyone.

 

It goes right along with some of the other stuff I did around that same age.  I ate a couple of those magnets that you put on refrigerators to keep things in place because I saw iron being attracted to cartoon characters who ate magnets (Tom and Jerry I think.)  I also wanted to invent my own permanent battery free source of electricity for flashlights because I hated when batteries ran out so I decided to attach a piece of aluminum foil to a flashlight bulb and stick the other end of the foil in an electrical outlet.  When this didn't quite work I decided to stick the flashlight bulb directly into the electrical outlet and got the electrical jolt of my life (it felt like my insides were in the spin cycle of a washing machine) and my finger tip-- and the small flashlight bulb-- both turned ash black lol.  Again I was somewhere between 6-8 years old when all this happened.....

 

 

 

15 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

This might be your best post. Also explains alot LOL

 

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought so haha.  I'll write an autobiography one day lol.

I was into snow, limitless energy and magnets before the internet and before we even had cable TV.

 

I agree with Rob, perhaps not for the same reasons. The fact that you’re still with us is a testament to the loving patience of your parents, specifically when dealing with young creative intelligence. I pray you and your sister are close, perhaps she should write the book. I was going to try and tie the magnet anecdote with your posting style but thought better of it. (That doesn’t mean Will won’t try). I enjoyed the post of your memories and will purchase/read the biography when it’s published. As always …

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

 

I agree with Rob, perhaps not for the same reasons. The fact that you’re still with us is a testament to the loving patience of your parents, specifically when dealing with young creative intelligence. I pray you and your sister are close, perhaps she should write the book. I was going to try and tie the magnet anecdote with your posting style but thought better of it. (That doesn’t mean Will won’t try). I enjoyed the post of your memories and will purchase/read the biography when it’s published. As always …

We are very close and she also wants to write a book.

I write various material, mostly poetry, but also short stories and science documentaries.  I finally figured out a way to share some of my writing without clogging up the thread, I screenshotted some of it.  Some of these were inspired by music I listened to, others came to me in my dreams.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….

Probably by summer.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….

 Just for once I’d love to see JB predict a warm winter for the bulk of the E US and stick with it! But he’s already been trying to suggest a +PDO for next winter despite there being -PDO on all TT extended SSTa maps I’ve seen.

 Here may be the reason he’s suggesting +PDO, which I feel will very likely fail. Below is a WB CFS SSTa map for NDJ (1981-2010 climo):

Compare the above to TT CFS (same model!) NDJ map below (similar climo of 1984-2009): -PDO

1. Why is it so cold S Japan SE/Eward on WB but almost opposite on TT?

2. Why is there ~warmest SSTa in N Pac off Cali/Baja on WB (JB already saying he likes it there because that’s consistent with +PDO) while TT’s only slightly warm there with much warmer in WPAC E/SE of Japan?

3. Why is WB so cold in IO vs NN on TT?

4. Why is WB cold in SPAC E of Aust. vs warm on TT?

5. Why is WB so warm in SPAC W of S.A. vs NN on TT?

6. Why is it BN off SE US on WB vs AN on TT?

7. Why is strip N of Antarctica AN on WB vs BN on TT?

 My point is that I’m suggesting the WB CFS SSTa maps, which I feel are causing JB to think +PDO next winter, are likely way off for whatever reason(s). I’m predicting a -PDO as per TT and typical climo of robust La Niña/consistent with marine heatwave remaining E of Japan.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably by summer.

Don, why don't we see interest in summer weather too?

I find extreme heat just as exciting as the thought of big snowstorms.

Both involve high numbers-- 20 inches of snow and 100 degrees are equally exciting because both are very rare.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Just for once I’d love to see JB predict a warm winter for the bulk of the E US and stick with it! He’s already been trying to suggest a +PDO for next winter despite there being -PDO on all TT extended SSTa maps I’ve seen.

 Here may be the reason he’s suggesting +PDO, which I feel will very likely fail. Below is a WB CFS SSTa map for NDJ (1981-2010 climo): 

Compare the above to TT CFS (same model!) NDJ map below (similar climo of 1984-2009):

1. Why is it so cold S Japan SE/Eward on WB but almost opposite on TT?

2. Why is there ~warmest SSTa in N Pac off Cali/Baja on WB (JB already saying he likes it there because that’s consistent with +PDO) while TT’s only slightly warm there with much warmer in WPAC E/SE of Japan?

3. Why is WB so cold in IO vs NN on TT?

4. Why is WB cold in SPAC E of Aust. vs warm on TT?

5. Why is WB so warm in SPAC W of S.A. vs NN on TT?

6. Why is it BN off SE US on WB vs AN on TT?

7. Why is strip N of Antarctica AN on WB vs BN on TT?

 My point is that I’m suggesting the WB CFS SSTa maps, which I feel are causing JB to think +PDO next winter, are likely way off for whatever reason(s). I’m predicting a -PDO as per TT and typical climo of robust La Niña/consistent with marine heatwave remaining E of Japan.

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

And note that he’ll likely not use the preceding H seasons (1995, 2010) as analogs despite being very active because neither had an E coast landfall N of FL.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

@GaWx My guess is that if the PDO stays negative he will say that and the +QBO “matches” 2010 and if there’s an above normal/high Atlantic ACE hurricane season, he will say that it matches 1995. So it’s the best of both worlds for him. If for some odd reason (in the very unlikely event) the PDO goes positive, all the better. Either way, 95 and 10 will be his analogs, you can see it now

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Just for once I’d love to see JB predict a warm winter for the bulk of the E US and stick with it! But he’s already been trying to suggest a +PDO for next winter despite there being -PDO on all TT extended SSTa maps I’ve seen.

 Here may be the reason he’s suggesting +PDO, which I feel will very likely fail. Below is a WB CFS SSTa map for NDJ (1981-2010 climo):

Compare the above to TT CFS (same model!) NDJ map below (similar climo of 1984-2009): -PDO

1. Why is it so cold S Japan SE/Eward on WB but almost opposite on TT?

2. Why is there ~warmest SSTa in N Pac off Cali/Baja on WB (JB already saying he likes it there because that’s consistent with +PDO) while TT’s only slightly warm there with much warmer in WPAC E/SE of Japan?

3. Why is WB so cold in IO vs NN on TT?

4. Why is WB cold in SPAC E of Aust. vs warm on TT?

5. Why is WB so warm in SPAC W of S.A. vs NN on TT?

6. Why is it BN off SE US on WB vs AN on TT?

7. Why is strip N of Antarctica AN on WB vs BN on TT?

 My point is that I’m suggesting the WB CFS SSTa maps, which I feel are causing JB to think +PDO next winter, are likely way off for whatever reason(s). I’m predicting a -PDO as per TT and typical climo of robust La Niña/consistent with marine heatwave remaining E of Japan.

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

I thought that with stronger Bermuda highs we'd get more Gulf Coast activity and storms that hit Florida and keep moving west? What's causing them to recurve more now vs what happened in 2004 and 2005 as well as 2020, JM?

Typically our hyperactive seasons are focused in the GOM not up here.

If you look at the years in which NJ and Long Island got hit by hurricanes, few or none of them were hyperactive.

 

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very simple reason why he’s hyping a +PDO winter despite the mountains of evidence against that….95-96 was a highly unusual +PDO/La Niña winter. He has ulterior motives as always. He will also say that the +QBO matches 10-11. It’s all about cold and snow for the east coast to him, all the time….

It's always about the blocking here-- it's very rare to get 1995-96 or 2010-11 kind of blocking, when that happens it trumps everything else.  But those are once in a generation kind of winters.

 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

1. I’ll be surprised if ACE isn’t 150++ based on combo of La Niña and hot ATL.

2. I don’t think those very long range precip maps are reliable. At this time last year, they were similarly wet in/off FL. Also, even if they were to verify, that wouldn’t necessarily guarantee several strong TCs tracking near SE though I’m thinking there will probably be at least one. Wetness can come from other things.

3. We could still have a very active year like 1995/2010 with no E hits N of FL. 2010 is one of top analogs of at least two H forecasters. Highest risk to US seems to be when ASO RONI 0 to -1.0, which may occur unfortunately.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's always about the blocking here-- it's very rare to get 1995-96 or 2010-11 kind of blocking, when that happens it trumps everything else.  But those are once in a generation kind of winters.

 

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

Interesting, Larry!  Now that I'm doing solar photography, I'm very interested in sunspots!  What is our current sunspot count? When I took pictures of them on Tuesday I could easily see at least a dozen of them!  We're near solar maximum now.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting, Larry!  Now that I'm doing solar photography, I'm very interested in sunspots!  What is our current sunspot count? When I took pictures of them on Tuesday I could easily see at least a dozen of them!

Very high (>200 4/17-20!): 4 day avg of 220, second only to June of 2023 since 2004.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Very high (>200 4/17-20!): 4 day avg of 220, second only to June of 2023 since 2004.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt

Figures, with how many I saw with just a camera and 300mm lens right in the camera's LCD!

It's why we had all those gorgeous pink storms around the sun's outer rim during the total solar eclipse too.

 

Is there a timeframe when to keep track of sunspot count prior to the winter-- like, fall, or summer?

Interesting thing about 2004, that was right in the middle of a series of snowy winters (2002-03 to 2004-05)

 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We are very close and she also wants to write a book.

I write various material, mostly poetry, but also short stories and science documentaries.  I finally figured out a way to share some of my writing without clogging up the thread, I screenshotted some of it.  Some of these were inspired by music I listened to, others came to me in my dreams.

 

“Go back in time at last learn how to be free” …. THANK YOU …. As always …..

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Figures, with how many I saw with just a camera and 300mm lens right in the camera's LCD!

It's why we had all those gorgeous pink storms around the sun's outer rim during the total solar eclipse too.

 

Is there a timeframe when to keep track of sunspot count prior to the winter-- like, fall, or summer?

Interesting thing about 2004, that was right in the middle of a series of snowy winters (2002-03 to 2004-05)

 

 The sunspots will very likely still be active next winter…likely 100+ as they shouldn’t start dropping sharply for couple of years.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The sunspots will very likely still be active next winter…likely 100+ as they shouldn’t start dropping sharply for couple of years.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Yes-- next year is the peak of activity (solar maximum).

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, rclab said:

“Go back in time at last learn how to be free” …. THANK YOU …. As always …..

a lesson learned from my dearly departed parents, you're very welcome!

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, why don't we see interest in summer weather too?

I find extreme heat just as exciting as the thought of big snowstorms.

Both involve high numbers-- 20 inches of snow and 100 degrees are equally exciting because both are very rare.

 

I suspect some of the interest can be seen in severe weather discussions and tropical cyclone discussions. Commentary seems to drop off when it comes to heat, probably because a lot of people don't like it. Nevertheless, heat is an important topic for discussion.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect some of the interest can be seen in severe weather discussions and tropical cyclone discussions. Commentary seems to drop off when it comes to heat, probably because a lot of people don't like it. Nevertheless, heat is an important topic for discussion.

I find extensive heat powerful and memorable, those summers stay in our memories just like big snowstorms do.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October 

Lots of auroral activity too

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

Those Caribbean cruiser/ GOF seasons aren’t great for Long Island surfers, so I’ll pass.

Personally I think this season will be so hyperactive there will be activity everywhere. That and the eastern MDR being so freakishly warm leads to a tendency for early development and strengthening which favors recurves.

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Lots of auroral activity too

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

And we also had it in 1990 and 1991 when we had 22 out of 24 months above normal and you know how bad the winters were back then.

It would be interesting if there's any info about the early 70s because we had some really bad winters back then too.

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters

[snowman19]

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

The CFS is predicting the first ever “super” La Niña lol

[Brian5671]

On 4/20/2024 at 8:38 AM, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….

He's only predicted a warm winter once that I can remember-sometime in the early 2000's (he was right too).   He's been god awful since 2015 which was really our last cold winter.  His cold bias gets in the way.  Not sure anyone really takes him seriously anymore-he's had to have lost ALOT of clients after the last few years and then his wonky political stuff too lol...    He'll probably be right on the hyperactive Atlantic season although the verdict is out as to whether it's a recurve season or coastal strike season.