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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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On 3/6/2024 at 2:19 PM, donsutherland1 said:

A vanquished forecaster has attempted to shift the timeframe to undo the Groundhog's verification. From outside his burrow among the blossoms, Punxsutawney Phil has responded.

image.png.a3a368c9e14cbe56432c9c78a0bd9329.png

I don’t know what’s scarier, the fact that he’s still posting this garbage after his epic, monumental failure of a winter forecast or the fact that his followers are delusional enough to still believe him…..

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Too bad your flight isnt today

Flew that mission coming home from yellowstone a few years ago. Aborted the landing at 1900’ and landed in atlantic city. One way rental car drive home later at 3 am :arrowhead:

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16 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

gonna be begging for this weather in a few months

we are hitting an 80 dew this year in nj i feel the power

to be fair that's not hard to do anymore

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd much rather see 100+ highs

dew points are boring

"80" is just a regular number

 

imagine the kind of storms we’re gonna see

last few years were excellent thunderstorm seasons

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Sleight of hand:

From this:

image.png.eb0d20ebe420e7212bf21b142030e732.png

To this:

image.png.155167ebe09cf1e844bfbf355ac3d87e.png

Notice the change in region being emphasized (from eastern North America to worldwide).

The latest ensemble guidance shows nothing close to among the "coldest opening weeks of spring on record." Back in December, when it became clear that a forecast for a frigid December would not verify, the analogs were shifted (colder ones dropped and others added) to suggest that the forecast had been for a warm December in the East. In fact, the analogs had been posted on the Weatherbell final winter forecast, so one could find the change that had been made to try to evade a big forecast error.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sleight of hand:

From this:

image.png.eb0d20ebe420e7212bf21b142030e732.png

To this:

image.png.155167ebe09cf1e844bfbf355ac3d87e.png

Notice the change in region being emphasized (from eastern North America to worldwide).

The latest ensemble guidance shows nothing close to among the "coldest opening weeks of spring on record." Back in December, when it became clear that a forecast for a frigid December would not verify, the analogs were shifted (colder ones dropped and others added) to suggest that the forecast had been for a warm December in the East. In fact, the analogs had been posted on the Weatherbell final winter forecast, so one could find the change that had been made to try to evade a big forecast error.

This little east coast cold and snow charade of his has been ongoing since November….first it was Thanksgiving, then it was Christmas, then late December/New Year’s, then mid-late January, then early February, then mid-late February, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, now it’s the end of March. Kicking the can down the road for 5 months in a row and counting. How do people waste their money to read this wishcasting??

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This little east coast cold and snow charade of his has been ongoing since November….first it was Thanksgiving, then it was Christmas, then late December/New Year’s, then mid-late January, then early February, then mid-late February, then early March, then March 10th-April 10th, now it’s the end of March. Kicking the can down the road for 5 months in a row and counting. How do people waste their money to read this wishcasting??

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

He’s completely insufferable and has decided to go down with the ship this year. Crash and burn. These last 2 winters were his worst busts of all time and that’s saying something. Worse than the 01-02 “vodka cold” winter, worse than the 11-12 winter, when it took him until after Valentine’s Day to finally admit defeat. He’s Casey Jones right now….

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

He’s completely insufferable and has decided to go down with the ship this year. Crash and burn. These last 2 winters were his worst busts of all time and that’s saying something. Worse than the 01-02 “vodka cold” winter, worse than the 11-12 winter, when it took him until after Valentine’s Day to finally admit defeat. He’s Casey Jones right now….

The comments on X are brutal if you look...I wonder if he reads them LOL

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Way back when, JB and DT were the "go to guys" for weather.   Not so much anymore...

Agreed & DT was as argumentative as ever too.  Time to move on and ignore them IMO. 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

The comments on X are brutal if you look...I wonder if he reads them LOL

JB's repeated high-profile forecasting failures are a sad closing chapter to his career.

Almost certainly, he is aware of how badly he has been forecasting. From big snowstorms that never materialized to extreme Arctic blasts that never arrived, his Winter 2023-2024 forecasting was catastrophically bad.

At this time, he should give serious  and honest reflection as to where he is, how he got there, and next steps. He should keep in mind the importance of preserving his legacy and reputation, both of which are being battered his forecasting failures.

 

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