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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23


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2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The cigarette companies are the oil companies, the doctors are propoganda news outlets, and the babies in the womb are the idiots who can’t connect dots that are in a straight line. Probably because their mom was dumb enough to smoke while pregnant. 

Indeed, I blame world governments for a lot of it and the UN for allowing fossil fuel lobbyists to participate in the discussions.  They need to be made to realize they are part of the past and will have NO role in the future of the planet.  And while we're at it, we need to ban corporate lobbying and dark money altogether.

 

 

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45 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Politics. Still clinging to its “just natural variability” the oil industry has allot of money and allot of PR firms. 

i'm talking about people on this board who have been following weather for years 

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On 1/29/2024 at 3:08 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Human activity is mimicking the powerful natural atmospheric changes brought on by the largest flood basalt eruptions. Look up the Siberian Traps which ushered in the Permian Mass Extinction and came very close to sterilizing the planet. This occurred due to absolutely monstrous CO2 gas release sustained over many thousands of years, as these eruptions are beyond any human comprehension. They dwarf VEI 8 explosive eruptions like Yellowstone (last was 1,000-1,500 cubic kilometers of volume). Flood basalt eruptions are 100,000+ cubic kilometers, sustaining at an enormously high yearly rate of effusion. They’re major players of global climate change and are often responsible for some of the warmest excursions our planet has seen.  The earth has “tools” to recover from these excursions, but they too take many, many millennia in order to scrub CO2 and bring global temps back down. I can only say continuing mass deforestation is catastrophically short sighted on our part, and couldn’t be more antithetical to what we should be doing right now. I understand all the ways modern society depends on lumber, but we need to figure it out - fast. 

The earth hasn’t seen a flood basalt event since the Columbia River Basalts about 16mya, and as you can probably tell they’re extremely rare from a human perspective. They’re believed to often be the birth of a new hotspot as an enormous mantle plume pushes toward the surface and forces out spectacular amounts of freshly melted magma as the plume pushes into the crust. And with all that melted rock comes all that exsolved gas, CO2 chief among them. And yes, the hotspot that caused the CRB in the PNW is very likely the hotspot powering Yellowstone presently, albeit in a reduced capacity.

Human activity is mimicking a flood basalt event, except at an even more rapid rate. They take thousands of years generally to have the kind of impact we’ve seen in a hundred. Short of catastrophic instantaneous events like asteroid impacts, we have to be the fastest instance of major climate change in the geologic record. 

The Siberian Traps eruption event was 2 million years of massive eruptions there.

The analog is insane.  

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People already spiking the football for a snowy second half of February and doing the snow dance. Crazy to me. It’s a 2 week forecast and the hype has already started. After 25 years you’d think people would have learned a little?

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3 hours ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

The Siberian Traps eruption event was 2 million years of massive eruptions there.

The analog is insane.  

We’ve released about 2400 Gigatons of CO2 since 1850 and raised CO2 PPM from 280 to over 400 in a 150 years. During the Permian Mass Extinction 3,900 to 12,000 Gigatons of CO2 were released by the Siberian Traps bringing CO2 PPM from about 400 to over 2,000. This occurred over about a 60,000 year period. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_event
 

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People already spiking the football for a snowy second half of February and doing the snow dance. Crazy to me. It’s a 2 week forecast and the hype has already started. After 25 years you’d think people would have learned a little?

Never. People see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear.


.
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2 hours ago, North and West said:


Never. People see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear.


.

Even if the pattern flips everything has to go perfectly to get a big snow at the coast. We could be cold with a storm suppressed or too far offshore or a coastal hugger and we end up flipping to rain. I mean eventually our luck has to change but that could very well take til next winter

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Even if the pattern flips everything has to go perfectly to get a big snow at the coast. We could be cold with a storm suppressed or too far offshore or a coastal hugger and we end up flipping to rain. I mean eventually our luck has to change but that could very well take til next winter

Yeah I mean at this point you got 2 weeks of February to work with.  March is never a month to count on snow when you're already in the hole and BN.  It does tend to be snowier than December (not that it would be a hard thing to achieve this year) but it could also go the opposite way and be mild.

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Politics. Still clinging to its “just natural variability” the oil industry has allot of money and allot of PR firms. 

I believe it’s also the religious aspect of it that’s off-putting. As humans, we find a need to belong to a tribe, and every religious order throughout history has its own set of rules which banishes and shames heretics. Climate change politics (disclosure, it is occurring) demands the same adherence to commandments from an elite with the same doomsday warnings if not followed as any religious sect. It doesn’t allow a devil’s advocate.

For instance, when you read of Jesus’ teachings and guidance, you think, wow, this is terrific. When you hear of him walking on water, you think… that probably didn’t happen. To some people, that’s heresy, and you’re banished.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.


.
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We aren’t well equipped as a species to deal with long term issues that aren’t an immediate threat in our immediate surroundings (think back to hunter gatherer times). A lot of people also operate on the assumption that all things being publicized and discussed today as issues are hyperbolic, there’s some truth to that of course and I don’t blame people for being skeptical. But skepticism is not obstinate contrarianism, which is what you end up getting in a lot of people who fight tooth and nail over it. I’m of the persuasion after reading papers from the last two years that the warnings haven’t been severe enough, but I understand why this is “off putting.” I disagree it’s like a religion though, it’s very bluntly a cause and effect. You can’t warn people of the consequences without discussing the consequences, lol. People aren’t innately aware of this stuff. With that said, there’s always poorly written and irresponsible journalism out there, but that’s not exclusive to the subject of climate change. I always recommend people try to digest climate info from academic sources, anyway - obviously most of the lay public won’t be doing that.

Unfortunately, this is a problem that will continue to grow and magnify whether or not individuals choose to “believe” in it or not. We have enough analogues from previous natural climate excursions to have a good idea what awaits us if we continue on the present course.

I take care to only post things I’m reasonably confident are factual or at least broadly correct. Most people love to just diarrhea their opinions all over and weigh them equally to actual observable truths. That’s never been helpful, and it’s a big constituent force of climate denialism. But we’re living through an era where some people suggest facts are malleable, so it’s sort of par for the course.

Try to get out and enjoy the cryosphere. Nothing in the world more beautiful than a glacier, IMHO.

NFn0jrf.jpeg
(Glacial lagoon in Iceland under Vatnajökull from our trip this past November)

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29 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

We aren’t well equipped as a species to deal with long term issues that aren’t an immediate threat in our immediate surroundings (think back to hunter gatherer times). A lot of people also operate on the assumption that all things being publicized and discussed today as issues are hyperbolic, there’s some truth to that of course and I don’t blame people for being skeptical. But skepticism is not obstinate contrarianism, which is what you end up getting in a lot of people who fight tooth and nail over it. I’m of the persuasion after reading papers from the last two years that the warnings haven’t been severe enough, but I understand why this is “off putting.” I disagree it’s like a religion though, it’s very bluntly a cause and effect. You can’t warn people of the consequences without discussing the consequences, lol. People aren’t innately aware of this stuff. With that said, there’s always poorly written and irresponsible journalism out there, but that’s not exclusive to the subject of climate change. I always recommend people try to digest climate info from academic sources, anyway - obviously most of the lay public won’t be doing that.

Unfortunately, this is a problem that will continue to grow and magnify whether or not individuals choose to “believe” in it or not. We have enough analogues from previous natural climate excursions to have a good idea what awaits us if we continue on the present course.

I take care to only post things I’m reasonably confident are factual or at least broadly correct. Most people love to just diarrhea their opinions all over and weigh them equally to actual observable truths. That’s never been helpful, and it’s a big constituent force of climate denialism. But we’re living through an era where some people suggest facts are malleable, so it’s sort of par for the course.

Try to get out and enjoy the cryosphere. Nothing in the world more beautiful than a glacier, IMHO.

NFn0jrf.jpeg
(Glacial lagoon in Iceland under Vatnajökull from our trip this past November)

This just triggered something I read last week-- are you aware that scientists are constructing artificial glaciers to replace the ones that are melting?

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24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This just triggered something I read last week-- are you aware that scientists are constructing artificial glaciers to replace the ones that are melting?

Liberty you just triggered me to look it up. Old saying, ‘necessity is the mother of invention’. Stay well, as always …..

 

IMG_7126.png

IMG_7127.png

IMG_7128.png

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22 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

We’ve released about 2400 Gigatons of CO2 since 1850 and raised CO2 PPM from 280 to over 400 in a 150 years. During the Permian Mass Extinction 3,900 to 12,000 Gigatons of CO2 were released by the Siberian Traps bringing CO2 PPM from about 400 to over 2,000. This occurred over about a 60,000 year period. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian–Triassic_extinction_event
 

Yeah, and I live on a GIANT glacial moraine in NY called Long Island.

Was it Mammoth farts that melted the Laurentide Ice Sheet?

Hot dogs!!!

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12 hours ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

Yeah, and I live on a GIANT glacial moraine in NY called Long Island.

Was it Mammoth farts that melted the Laurentide Ice Sheet?

Hot dogs!!!

Changes in the Milankovitch cycle, a degree of ocean warming leading to Heinrich events, and other subtle feedback processes drove the disintegration of the ice sheet. About 8000 years ago solar insolation was higher than today, which helped polish off the remnants of the ice sheet. 

I’d be curious about the ‘mammoth fart hypothesis,’ though. They were pretty big and I’m sure their farts were rather vile :P.

https://www.futurity.org/laurentide-ice-age-sea-level-rise-1366092/

https://serc.carleton.edu/vignettes/collection/58451.html#:~:text=After 20%2C000 years ago%2C Earth,the modern Greenland Ice Sheet.

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11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Changes in the Milankovitch cycle, a degree of ocean warming leading to Heinrich events, and other subtle feedback processes drove the disintegration of the ice sheet. About 8000 years ago solar insolation was higher than today, which helped polish off the remnants of the ice sheet. 

I’d be curious about the ‘mammoth fart hypothesis,’ though. They were pretty big and I’m sure their farts were rather vile :P.

https://www.futurity.org/laurentide-ice-age-sea-level-rise-1366092/

https://serc.carleton.edu/vignettes/collection/58451.html#:~:text=After 20%2C000 years ago%2C Earth,the modern Greenland Ice Sheet.

the overpopulation of humans and their livestock has much more of an effect than any limited population of mammoths ever did.

also-- it's worth noting-- humans drove the mammoths to extinction (along with many other creatures.)

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15 hours ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

Yeah, and I live on a GIANT glacial moraine in NY called Long Island.

Was it Mammoth farts that melted the Laurentide Ice Sheet?

Hot dogs!!!

Lush grasses, fruits and beans moved north into their territory as the climate changed. This made them more gaseous than before... ;)

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2 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Looks like one of those drippy sand castles you make at the beach. 

Good afternoon Mm5306. In order to avoid a sand castles destiny, I imagine this prototype will have to expand many fold. This just to fill the space of the original. As we continue to warm that may become quite the problematic task. Stay well, as always …..

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18 hours ago, Cygnus X-1 said:

Yeah, and I live on a GIANT glacial moraine in NY called Long Island.

Was it Mammoth farts that melted the Laurentide Ice Sheet?

Hot dogs!!!

 

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Changes in the Milankovitch cycle, a degree of ocean warming leading to Heinrich events, and other subtle feedback processes drove the disintegration of the ice sheet. About 8000 years ago solar insolation was higher than today, which helped polish off the remnants of the ice sheet. 

I’d be curious about the ‘mammoth fart hypothesis,’ though. They were pretty big and I’m sure their farts were rather vile :P.

https://www.futurity.org/laurentide-ice-age-sea-level-rise-1366092/

https://serc.carleton.edu/vignettes/collection/58451.html#:~:text=After 20%2C000 years ago%2C Earth,the modern Greenland Ice Sheet.

Good afternoon C X-1, V W. Interesting question. Stay well, as always …..

 

IMG_7131.png

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On 1/31/2024 at 5:15 PM, LibertyBell said:

Indeed, I blame world governments for a lot of it and the UN for allowing fossil fuel lobbyists to participate in the discussions.  They need to be made to realize they are part of the past and will have NO role in the future of the planet.  And while we're at it, we need to ban corporate lobbying and dark money altogether.

 

 

If you noticed, most countries in Europe are abandoning their lofty renewable goals.  

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8 minutes ago, North and West said:


That would take out the majority of this forum.


.

IF you do the math, and compare the amount of greenhouse gas emitted by bovine before and after Europeans made it to the Americas, there is not a significant difference between the two periods. If that 20% is going to make or break us, then I call Shenanigans...

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1 hour ago, North and West said:


Nuclear. emoji3518.png

How we have a technology that can produce near limitless clean energy but we don’t use it is annoying.


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Yeah you gotta watch the Oliver stone doc on nuclear, incredible. Some amazing safe small scale tech now exists. But unfortunately country’s like Germany are shutting down their remaining reactors, in favor of so called green tech like burning trees. Which they import without hesitation from all over the world.

The real fix will come when we have viable fusion, that’s the game changer. 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah you gotta watch the Oliver stone doc on nuclear, incredible. Some amazing safe small scale tech now exists. But unfortunately country’s like Germany are shutting down their remaining reactors, in favor of so called green tech like burning trees. Which they import without hesitation from all over the world.

The real fix will come when we have viable fusion, that’s the game changer. 

Fusion tech may never actually come to be. Even if it does develop it won’t be for 200 years where it can actually be used 

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