Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[cardinalland]

another spry weekend day ruined by Big Rain

[Volcanic Winter]

In these (sadly) lean times, I wanted to share an outstanding recent article about the 1815 colossal Tambora eruption for anyone that may be interested in learning about it. 

https://www.volcanocafe.org/tambora-making-history/

For reference Tambora was as much as 15x larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and about 125x larger than Mt St Helens. It’s a scale of volcanism that’s largely unfathomable for a person to conceptualize. 

[donsutherland1]

In what appears to be as classic an example of a bait-and-switch forecast to imply verification as one has seen in some time, JB has largely reshuffled his analog package to claim verification for how December is playing out in the East. This type of practice needs to be called out, as it shifts the goal posts to attempt to assert verification where verification appears unlikely (the East Coast). It is an unfair attempt to claim verification--both to the public and to other professionals in the field.

Let's have a closer look:

The winter forecast from WeatherBELL is posted at: https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

The list of analogs deployed is: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10, and 2015-16 (see analog map used to construct the winter forecast)

Here's how December played out using the above analog package:

On November 20, when JB appeared to think that early-season cold was coming in line with his thinking, he tweeted a 45-day CFSv2 map showing extreme cold in the East (he tends to reach conclusions and then select guidance that supports those conclusions rather than using the guidance to inform his conclusions, which creates confirmation bias-related forecasting issues):

The map was an extreme outlier with almost no chance of verifying in the contemporary climate. Even considering only historic climatology (not the impact of climate change), Boston had seen only 2.6% of cases with the cold shown on the map (last: 1989-90), New York City had seen 1.9% cases (last: 1917-18), and Washington, DC had seen 2.6% cases (last: 1917-18).

Here's how December has played out through the first 10 days (imperiling the cold in the East idea and eliminating any prospect that the extreme CFSv2 map would verify):

Rather than acknowledge that the forecast has done well in the Northern Plains but that the warmth has been more expansive than anticipated so far, including extending to the East Coast where the analog forecast was for cold, he tweeted the following on today (December 11):

The full December map from that tweet is below:

Look closely at the analog list shown on today's map and compare it to the forecast package posted on the WeatherBELL website. Here's how things have stayed the same or changed:

1957-58: Missing

1965-66: Retained

1969-70: Missing

1976-77: Missing

1986-87: Retained

1997-98: Missing

2002-03: Retained and used twice

2006-07: New

2009-10: Missing

2014-15: New

2015-16: Missing

 It's ok to revise forecasts as new evidence comes in. It's not ok to pass off new ideas as existing ones. The analogs presented on the WeatherBELL winter forecast are listed. That forecast was made public. The difference between the analogs shown in today's tweet and that forecast are apparent: 6 were deleted, 3 were retained with one being used twice, and 2 new ones were added.

The December map should have been presented as a revised forecast. It is not the initial analog forecast, which was far too cold in the East.

Finally, the extreme outlier map should never have been posted. 45-day maps have real limitations in skill. That the cold was exceptional relative to historic climatology was an early big "red flag" that suggested the need for extreme caution regarding the map. That the climate has warmed since the last comparable outbreaks of extreme cold further reduced the probability of the outcome shown on the map. The extreme map served no public purpose, as it was all but certain to bust from the onset.

It was posted to reinforce the initial idea of a cold December in the East:

1. Notice the language in the tweet about "if it's going to be cold the CFSv2 45 day forecasts see it" (preemptive verification of a cold idea)

2. Notice the language that "some of the analogs of this winter say its (sic) not waiting till later Dec and beyond" (acknowledgement of the existence of the cold analogs that disappeared from this morning's tweet)

JB should delete his tweet. It's not his best work to put it mildly.

[Stormlover74]

Don with the smackdown

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Don with the smackdown

What was posted today is worse than his posting extreme maps. The problem in this case was that the WeatherBELL analogs had been publicly posted. One could go back to those analogs for purposes of comparison. Had the original forecast not been available, his revised map might well have stood up to scrutiny creating the perception of a better forecast than appears likely. Finally, is this a one-time issue or has it occurred before when there was no publicly-available evidence to validate the claims?

In his Accuweather days, he would often "take out the trash" as he called it to discuss where things didn't work out. It seems that those days are long gone. He should delete his tweet. If so, I'd certainly be happy to delete my references to this case.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Don with the smackdown

This is where JB (and others) look silly-he's still hanging onto the "big pattern switch" after 12/20 despite modeling which shows that idea heading to the trash bin....sticks with an idea way too long and long after it's apparent it's not coming..his twitter posts are very defensive today....

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

In these (sadly) lean times, I wanted to share an outstanding recent article about the 1815 colossal Tambora eruption for anyone that may be interested in learning about it. 

https://www.volcanocafe.org/tambora-making-history/

For reference Tambora was as much as 15x larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and about 125x larger than Mt St Helens. It’s a scale of volcanism that’s largely unfathomable for a person to conceptualize. 

Read it, and other linked articles, thanks!!! Absolutely loved it. I think we are the two guys with the biggest passions for both meteo and geo on the board. I think it’s going to take a high end, high sulfur vie 7 for us to see a true winter in our lifetimes. Hopefully is comes from the least inhabited place, maybe Patagonia. 

[Volcanic Winter]

@LongBeachSurfFreak
 

Chiles-Cerro Negro is my dark horse pick for a large VEI 6 event in the near term future. It has been inactive for potentially tens of thousands of years, has evolved dacitic magma (usually explosive but can be effusive or exhibit both behaviors like Cerro Azul in  the 19th and 20th centuries, one effusive and one explosive eruption both nearly VEI 6 by volume), and has been undergoing immense swarming activity for over a decade now heralding the system having woke up from a long, long slumber.

Just some speculation. I do think this system is waking up “for real,” and there’s a large ancient VEI 7 caldera nearby to CCN (checking a volcano’s neighbors is a good way to get an idea of the potential of a given system, with some caveats - I’m not suggesting CCN may do a 7). But it may only erupt effusively, or it may do nothing at all. The magma is evolved but it’s believed the volcano was mostly effusive when active during the Pleistocene, however having sat dormant for all this time I’d expect cooler and more viscous magma ready to blow.

One I’m keeping an eye on, but volcanoes don’t blow before they’re ready. It may not even happen in our lifetimes, or the swarming could eventually stop tomorrow  even. Still, it’s my dark horse pick for sure.

https://www.volcanocafe.org/chile-cerro-negro-is-this-the-one/
 

https://www.volcanocafe.org/chiles-cerro-negro-the-final-swarm/

Guest posts on VC from Tallis who has been tracking this system, and interestingly he’s a member of AmericanWX too. 

[donsutherland1]

While New York City has reached 670 consecutive days without having seen daily snowfall of an inch or more, I asked AI to generate some images of snowstorms. The images were then processed to create a 19th century feel. There were some issues creating the images on the AI side, but all in all, they worked out reasonably well.

[Santa Claus]

On 12/15/2023 at 11:31 PM, donsutherland1 said:

While New York City has reached 670 consecutive days without having seen daily snowfall of an inch or more, I asked AI to generate some images of snowstorms. The images were then processed to create a 19th century feel. There were some issues creating the images on the AI side, but all in all, they worked out reasonably well.

please update the prompt to include rclab with his signature tophat and cane thank you

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

please update the prompt to include rclab with his signature tophat and cane thank you

Prompt updated:

[Santa Claus]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Prompt updated:

he is on a delightful jebwalk, whistling a jaunty tune, excited to meet his sweetie for lunch at their favorite spot.  after that it’s back to the stock exchange to make another million before dinner

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

please update the prompt to include rclab with his signature tophat and cane thank you

 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Prompt updated:

Thank you, Don/Will. I’m already preparing for the visits. Let’s see, it should be Sacrus first, Anthony second and S19 third. You get the whole day off Will but the 15 shillings is non negotiable. Rob, I won’t accept the invite and you gave me no option but to throw you out of the postage stamp. Walt and BW no donations although I may run into you thinking differently in the morning. And forky when I give you the $ for the prize Turkey ….. don’t run away with it this time. I still feel it was the right move to force DIT out if the Counting House business but Wolfe on the doorknob and living room still scares the devil out of me. One last thing. Thank you Maureen for your care and compassion for maintaining the rooms you will definitely get a raise to ten. Thank you everyone, the 24/25 will be its usual long night but even so … God Bless Us Everyone …. As always ….

 

[Santa Claus]

45 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Thank you, Don/Will. I’m already preparing for the visits. Let’s see, it should be Sacrus first, Anthony second and S19 third. You get the whole day off Will but the 15 shillings is non negotiable. Rob, I won’t accept the invite and you gave me no option but to throw you out of the postage stamp. Walt and BW no donations although I may run into you thinking differently in the morning. And forky when I give you the $ for the prize Turkey ….. don’t run away with it this time. I still feel it was the right move to force DIT out if the Counting House business but Wolfe on the doorknob and living room still scares the devil out of me. One last thing. Thank you Maureen for your care and compassion for maintaining the rooms you will definitely get a raise to ten. Thank you everyone, the 24/25 will be its usual long night but even so … God Bless Us Everyone …. As always ….

 

honestly still better than my current job

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

honestly still better than my current job

All right Will. Be in all the earlier on the 26th. We’ll discuss your salary then. Make sure the doors are locked …. Just in case nephew Rob shows up again. As always ….

 

 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[Allsnow]

I feel like Dt has been wrong for years now 

[Santa Claus]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I feel like Dt has been wrong for years now 

he’s a carnival barker

[Brian5671]

14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I feel like Dt has been wrong for years now 

He has likely busted on the big xmas week snows/travel disruption call as did JB.   

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He has likely busted on the big xmas week snows/travel disruption call as did JB.   

At least he'll admit to being wrong like his call for hurricane force wind gusts on the coast last night

[Stormlover74]

On 12/3/2023 at 5:59 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Unusual larger explosive event from Marapi today (not to be confused with Mt Merapi). This volcano doesn’t normally do eruptions like this, large for the volcano and notable on a yearly basis, but not large large.

https://watchers.news/2023/12/03/high-level-eruption-at-marapi-volcano-ash-to-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-indonesia/

 

Very photogenic eruption column. 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

@Stormlover74

Very bad news, that’s a massive and exceptionally powerful fissure. Much moreso than Fagradalsfjall. Those central jets are enormous and that looks like a very high effusion rate. Not good for Grindavik, Blue Lagoon, etc. 

Gave very little warning. A couple hours of swarming and a 4.2 quake, then boom. The dike formed a month ago and then activity waned. The main rock breaking / fracturing had completed and the dike was in a pre-eruptive position. The problem is they couldn’t tell if the supply from below had turned off or not. If it did, there wouldn’t be an eruption now and that magma would’ve stayed in a “loaded gun” position for a while longer. Instead, it seems the dike sat there and slowly, relatively silently continued to pressurize until the final swarm broke through the remaining section of crust. The powerful fountains are the end result. 

Not a tourist eruption, this is pretty bad for them. I’ve been to Grindavik several times and it was already extensively damaged by the seismic activity (graben formation) last month. 
 

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/reykjanes/news/229037/Reykjanes-volcano-update-Eruption-seems-very-powerful-scientist-calls-it-worse-case.html

Edit: From RUV.is (official source)

Ármann Höskuldsson, volcanologist, has told RÚV that the crack currently seems to stretch to the north, and this means that the lava does not go down into Grindavík.

He says one fissure has already worn off and another fissure has opened a little further north.

He considers this to be three to four times bigger than the previous eruption on the peninsula.

[Volcanic Winter]

Forgive the janky way I’m sharing this:

https://imgur.com/a/v2vL1fm

Edit: Same video, de-jankified:

 

[gravitylover]

450 feet! That's the real deal.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

450 feet! That's the real deal.

Yeah Icelandic fissure eruptions can be pretty insane in their opening phase when the pressure is at its peak. The Laki eruption had fissures extending over 80km with jets shooting up over a thousand feet at least. But that’s the top end of the scale and thus is very rare. 

This is big for a mantle fed eruption, the larger fissure events happen from rifts formed by the central volcanoes where magma can accumulate in a chamber for centuries to millennia. 2014’s Holuhraun eruption of Bararbunga is an example, as is the Laki eruption (which was over 10x larger).

This was also reminiscent of a Mauna Loa eruption, which is impressive because Mauna Loa does very intense fissures. 

I was really sad last night because the initial news wasn’t great and there was grave concern the lava would swamp Grindavik, but fortunately the top 3/4ths of the fissure, the lava was flowing away. The southernmost section had lava flowing in the direction of the town apparently but the output there was low, and has died down. 

They’re very lucky! The bad news is that this is going to keep happening now for decades as the Reykjanes volcanic fields have awoken for the start of a new cycle of eruptions. The last Reykjanes cycle was in the Middle Ages, so this is pretty amazing to be alive during this. 

[Stormlover74]

[IrishRob17]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its only 12/19, we still have time...LOL

[Volcanic Winter]

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I feel attacked. I thought this was a safe space for snow addicts?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

I feel attacked. I thought this was a safe space for snow addicts?

Cold turkey 

[Volcanic Winter]

More like warm turkey.