Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

45 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

 

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

  

they can't weenie carbon dioxide 

‘Indeed’ ……. As always …….

 

[IrishRob17]

There's a couple members in here that must work for Oscar Mayer with the amount of weenies they throw out on a daily basis.

[HailMan06]

The USDA released their new plant hardiness zone map and almost everyone moved up a whole zone.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/17/2023-plant-hardiness-map

https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/pages/map-downloads

[Dark Star]

On 11/15/2023 at 10:14 AM, rclab said:

 

‘Indeed’ ……. As always …….

 

I think they left out cows?

[donsutherland1]

On 11/8/2023 at 10:32 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Annual public service announcement: Beware of long-range maps (especially those calling for cold and snow) and proclamations of imminent sudden or major stratospheric warming events on social media. Beyond two weeks, the maps have little skill. Beyond 7-10 days, forecasts for stratospheric warming events also have low skill.

Continuing the illustration of how extended range models can fluctuate a lot over long timeframes, below is the latest CFSv2 forecast for November 22-28. Last week, it featured widespread warmth (a reversal from earlier). This week it features cool anomalies in much of Canada, parts of the Plains States, and the northeastern U.S.:

[Stormlover74]

[Volcanic Winter]

On 11/18/2023 at 7:41 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I’ll take and feel guilty about it later. 

[Volcanic Winter]

On 11/17/2023 at 4:15 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the illustration of how extended range models can fluctuate a lot over long timeframes, below is the latest CFSv2 forecast for November 22-28. Last week, it featured widespread warmth (a reversal from earlier). This week it features cool anomalies in much of Canada, parts of the Plains States, and the northeastern U.S.:

It’s okay Don, going forward we’ll simply say, “the next two weeks will either be warm or cold depending upon the type and quantity of booze each imbibed prior to its run.” 
 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

https://watchers.news/2023/11/20/major-eruption-at-ulawun-volcano-triggers-highest-alert-level-ash-reaches-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/
 

Ulawun having a rather impressive sub-plinian burp apparently. It just did a VEI 4 a few years ago, so seems to be in a more active phase. With that said I don’t know tons about this specific volcano aside from it being a major SO2 emitter and on the Decade volcano list (supposedly the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, but I’ve always thought that list is very incomplete and with some questionable choices, likely based more on availability of funds / access for study than true risk - but Ulawun is a dangerous one). 
 

I’ll update if anything significant comes out of this. 
 

 

Substantial ash column. There’s only a bit of info at present but my very quick guesstimation would have this as a VEI 3, but depends on the duration and whatnot. 
 

Update: The ash column was revised up to 18km from 15, that’s pretty substantial. Still sub-plinian by technical classification (plinian is supposed to be 20km+), but a pretty powerful outburst. Info is still a bit sparse (I’m mainly curious about duration because that has the most impact on how big this eruption was, a small VEI 4 at the high side is perhaps plausible like Shiveluch earlier in the year). 

Update 2: Wow, this is pretty impressive. This really does look like a 4 now.

 

[Dark Star]

On 11/20/2023 at 12:24 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

https://watchers.news/2023/11/20/major-eruption-at-ulawun-volcano-triggers-highest-alert-level-ash-reaches-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/
 

Ulawun having a rather impressive sub-plinian burp apparently. It just did a VEI 4 a few years ago, so seems to be in a more active phase. With that said I don’t know tons about this specific volcano aside from it being a major SO2 emitter and on the Decade volcano list (supposedly the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, but I’ve always thought that list is very incomplete and with some questionable choices, likely based more on availability of funds / access for study than true risk - but Ulawun is a dangerous one). 
 

I’ll update if anything significant comes out of this. 
 

 

Substantial ash column. There’s only a bit of info at present but my very quick guesstimation would have this as a VEI 3, but depends on the duration and whatnot. 
 

Update: The ash column was revised up to 18km from 15, that’s pretty substantial. Still sub-plinian by technical classification (plinian is supposed to be 20km+), but a pretty powerful outburst. Info is still a bit sparse (I’m mainly curious about duration because that has the most impact on how big this eruption was, a small VEI 4 at the high side is perhaps plausible like Shiveluch earlier in the year). 

Since it is southern hemisphere, no real effect on our weather (regardless of heights/content)?

[Volcanic Winter]

36 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Since it is southern hemisphere, no real effect on our weather (regardless of heights/content)?

Too small even if a large VEI 4. It’s basaltic to andesitic (andesite is usually pretty stinky), so if Ulawun ever did a mid VEI 5 it may be different. For reference Soufriere in the Caribbean did a moderate VEI 4 in 2021 and outputted about .4Mt of sulfur. El Chichon in the 80’s was a small to moderate VEI 5 and erupted through anhydrite (making it very stinky for the size) and did about 7Mt of sulfur. Pinatubo 91 was the perfect climate disruptor being big enough to reach VEI 6 classification while also being a gassy eruption; it did ~20Mt. So yeah VEI 4’s like this year’s Shiveluch doesn’t really move the needle on climate impacts.  

And conventional wisdom is that the worst volcanic effects stay in the hemisphere of the eruption. But there are examples of that not always being the case, and honestly you guys that know atmospheric physics can probably answer this better than I can. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Here’s a very far away shot of Bezymianny doing a St Helen’s like small VEI 5 in the 1950’s. This, like St Helen’s generally isn’t big enough for climate impacts that are actually detectable and identifiable as from volcanic aerosols, and look at how monstrous this is. 

[Dark Star]

The most gentlest 2 inches of rain ever?

[donsutherland1]

Today will be the 648th consecutive day on which New York City has not seen an inch or more of daily snowfall. That exceeds the previous record by 265 days, which ties the record for the largest margin by which this sorry record has been broken.

[Santa Claus]

upcoming pattern looking tough, still livable but we've got a lot of dark and cold ahead of us and the slide is getting steeper.  it's encouraging me to do more decorating and furnishing of my apartment because i know i'm gonna be spending a lot of time in the bird cage

[Santa Claus]

7 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

bird cage

hey rclab i would appreciate it when you reply to me this time if you include a picture of what bird reminds you most of me.  i don't think you will say turkey despite the holiday pun and easy laugh factor.  pigeon would be too low rent.  my guess might be mockingbird if that is not conceited of me to say so

my answer for you is blue heron

the chessmaster of air and water

[rclab]

4 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

hey rclab i would appreciate it when you reply to me this time if you include a picture of what bird reminds you most of me.  i don't think you will say turkey despite the holiday pun and easy laugh factor.  pigeon would be too low rent.  my guess might be mockingbird if that is not conceited of me to say so

my answer for you is blue heron

the chessmaster of air and water

Good morning Will. If the forum members are up to it after yesterday’s feast , this could end up as a non-weather related contest. My selection is the cassowary, photo below. As always ……

 

[Santa Claus]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning Will. If the forum members are up to it after yesterday’s feast , this could end up as a non-weather related contest. My selection is the cassowary, photo below. As always ……

 

he and i have very similar gizzards, it’s true

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

upcoming pattern looking tough, still livable but we've got a lot of dark and cold ahead of us and the slide is getting steeper.  it's encouraging me to do more decorating and furnishing of my apartment because i know i'm gonna be spending a lot of time in the bird cage

why were you up so late? go to bed

[Santa Claus]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why were you up so late? go to bed

i was hanging out with my buddy at my apartment doing furniture shopping online

about to brave the wilds of Black Friday and go look at some stuff in-store

[donsutherland1]

On 11/17/2023 at 4:15 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the illustration of how extended range models can fluctuate a lot over long timeframes, below is the latest CFSv2 forecast for November 22-28. Last week, it featured widespread warmth (a reversal from earlier). This week it features cool anomalies in much of Canada, parts of the Plains States, and the northeastern U.S.:

The final CFSv2 forecast for the November 22-28 period:

[Dark Star]

Any concern for the latest sunspot activity, or was it just media hype?  Also, am I in the wrong sub forum for this?

[Stormlover74]

Snowy game in Manhattan 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kansas

[NorthShoreWx]

On 11/17/2023 at 11:36 AM, HailMan06 said:

The USDA released their new plant hardiness zone map and almost everyone moved up a whole zone.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/17/2023-plant-hardiness-map

https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/pages/map-downloads

So now Manhattan and central Suffolk are listed in the same hardiness zone.  That seems unlikely.

[Volcanic Winter]

Brought out my glacier themed Captain Willard Seiko which is my defacto winter watch. 

Time to get some snow. 

[North and West]

Snowy game in Manhattan 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kansas

.

[Dark Star]

Just reset the tarp on my firewood pile and found a few chunks of ice!!??  I know we had some colder nights, but to find ice in central Union County NJ in November?

[Stormlover74]

Wichita Eisenhower saw 7.8" of snow yesterday. This broke the daily record of 6.8" set in 1952, and was the city's greatest snowfall since Feb 4, 2014. It was the 2nd greatest 1-day Nov snowfall (1st is 8.7" on Nov 9, 1888). 

[Santa Claus]

jeb walking the duck weather

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wichita Eisenhower saw 7.8" of snow yesterday. This broke the daily record of 6.8" set in 1952, and was the city's greatest snowfall since Feb 4, 2014. It was the 2nd greatest 1-day Nov snowfall (1st is 8.7" on Nov 9, 1888). 

Lander, Wyoming hit the snowfall jackpot this month.